By Jon Hilsenrath
Janet Yellen was doubtful in 2009 that an emerging U.S. economic
recovery would be at all robust and argued for the Federal Reserve
to ramp up its efforts to boost growth, according to transcripts of
that year's policy meetings released by the central bank
Wednesday.
The Fed's internal discussions, revealed fully for the first
time, evolved as 2009 progressed--from the panic that marked the
early part of the year and toward uncertainties about the strength
of the brewing recovery. Along the way, officials debated whether
to do more to spur growth and both how and when to plot an exit
from the easy-money policies put in place as the financial system
imploded in 2008. Ms. Yellen often led the case among those arguing
for more.
"The economic and financial news has been grim," Ms. Yellen said
at a March 2009 policy meeting when the Fed increased its efforts
to boost the economy. "Things are now so bad that I actually open
[Fed's staff] economic projections with greater trepidation than my
401(k)."
Ms. Yellen, who in 2009 was president of the Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco and became Fed chairwoman in 2014, offered at
the March 2009 policy meeting a dire analysis of the economic
outlook, saying the odds of a sharp rebound were remote and instead
boosting the economy would be like pedaling a bicycle up a steep
hill. The Fed decided at the meeting to buy $300 billion in U.S.
Treasury securities, $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities
and $200 billion in debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a
big increase in efforts to spur growth.
U.S. stock markets had bottomed by that March meeting, but many
Fed officials were cautious about the economic outlook. "Perhaps
the most striking development since the last meeting is the
weakening of the global economy," then-Fed chairman Ben Bernanke
said at the meeting. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren described
the discussion at that March meeting as "the most depressing" he
had heard during the financial crisis.
By that April, it had become clear markets were rallying, but
worries lingered. "False dawns have occurred in previous
recessions," Mr. Bernanke warned at an April 28-29 gathering.
Ms. Yellen went further, arguing that the economic outlook was
still "fraught with peril" and calling for the Fed to ramp up its
bond-buying program. "Now that we've tested the waters, it's time
to wade in by substantially increasing our purchases of Treasury
securities," Ms. Yellen said. "I prefer to take appropriate, bold
action to stimulate the economy sooner rather than later."
Ms. Yellen didn't win the argument that day, but the Fed
launched a new bond program in November 2010 and others in later
years that brought its total holdings of securities, loans and
other assets to $4.5 trillion, far larger than anyone anticipated
in 2009.
The Fed's bond programs were--and remain--one of the most
controversial facets of officials' efforts to spur growth in the
wake of the financial crisis. Top Fed officials say they helped the
economy. Some economists doubt they had a big impact. Others said
they distorted markets and risked spurring inflation or financial
excesses, though neither inflation nor a clear financial bubble has
emerged.
Ms. Yellen's views during 2009 were colored by a dim view of the
economic outlook. She said that September that the recovery "will
be tepid by historical standards, leaving unemployment unacceptably
high for a long time to come." That December, she said members of
the San Francisco Fed's board were "incredulous" about central bank
forecasts for the economy. "Every single one of them thought we
were overly optimistic about employment," she said. She worried
about ending bond-buying programs prematurely.
Ironically, among her concerns was that Fed policies were less
powerful than they had been in the past. Because the banking system
was so fragile, she argued in March, the low interest rates that
the Fed engineered were less likely to boost growth. Still, rather
than back off the use of these policies, she pressed for more.
The Wall Street Journal has documented that Ms. Yellen correctly
foresaw a weak recovery at the early stages, a forecast that led
her to call for aggressive easy-money policies through much of the
aftermath of the crisis.
To be sure, Ms. Yellen had her share of misjudgments,
underestimating at times how long it would take for the
economy--and monetary policy--to get back to normal.
At one point in the March meeting, she said the Fed might be
raising short-term interest rates by 2012. Rates today remain near
zero, where the Fed put them in December 2008. Ms. Yellen is
leading efforts to begin raising them later this year.
Taken together, the Yellen that emerges in the 2009 meetings is
an unmistakable policy "dove," meaning somebody who argues
forcefully for easy-money policies. It contradicts, to a degree,
her approach since last year as Fed chairwoman, when she has sought
to build consensus and hasn't staked out sharp policy positions at
odds with other policy makers.
Some officials were far off in their rate predictions.
Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said on April 28 his
forecast for inflation "requires that we begin raising the funds
rate by the end of this year, certainly by early next year, and
then continue to raise it throughout the forecast period. I have it
reaching 3 1/2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2011." The fed
funds rate, the central bank's benchmark short-term rate, has
remained near zero since December 2008. Many officials expect to
start lifting it later this year.
Mr. Plosser, who retired on Sunday, couldn't be reached for
comment through the Philadelphia Fed.
The transcripts also shed light on how Mr. Bernanke handled key
decisions.
After beginning 2009 in a panic, Mr. Bernanke was nominated for
another four-year term as Fed leader and named Time Magazine's
"person of the year" with an economic recovery appearing to be in
hand.
In September 2009, just after being renominated, he broached the
idea of adding to the bond-buying programs. "If we're unsatisfied
with the situation and we think the federal funds rate ought to be
minus 4 percent, why aren't we doing even more?" Mr. Bernanke asked
rhetorically at a September policy meeting.
"I don't think we should rule it out," Mr. Bernanke responded to
his own question. But "given all the uncertainties we have and the
issues about our balance sheet and exit and our uncertainties about
the effects of these programs, it's not obvious that we do have a
lot of ammunition left even on this unconventional dimension."
The latest transcripts cover the 11 meetings--eight scheduled
and three unscheduled--in 2009 of the Fed's policy making Federal
Open Market Committee. The group releases a statement shortly after
each meeting announcing its policy decision, and three weeks later
releases minutes summarizing the meetings without identifying
individuals by name or quoting them. The Fed releases the FOMC
transcripts five years after the meetings, revealing for the first
time exactly what individual Fed officials said as they debated
policy.
Participating in the meetings are members of the Fed's
seven-seat Washington-based board of governors, presidents of the
12 regional reserve banks and senior central-bank staff.
This year's release comes at potential inflection point for the
central bank as lawmakers consider a host of proposals that would
subject the Fed to additional congressional scrutiny or restructure
it. The new documents could shed new light on who was wrong and who
was right inside the central bank as it tried to find a way out of
crisis. That in turn could shape proposals on how Congress might
want to change it.
Write to Jon Hilsenrath at jon.hilsenrath@wsj.com
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