Alco Stores, Inc. (MM) (DUCK) Quote

Well this one has been unimpressive all along and I traded out of most shares but like many of my positions I held some because of book valuation. Seems like more of these book plays have been getting picked up/acquired more lately.

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DTCC (PENSON/TDA) Check - (otc and pinks) - Note ~ I did not check for this chart blast. However, I try and help you to do so with the following links.
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MACDlinks

~ Friday! $DUCK ~ Q1 Earnings posted, pending or coming soon! In Charts and Links Below!

~ $DUCK ~ Earnings expected on Friday *
Want more like this? Search Keyword: MACMONEY >>> http://tinyurl.com/MACMONEY <<<
One or more of many earnings sites has alerted this security has or will be posting earnings on or around the day of this message.








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http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/post_prvt.aspx?user=251916

*If the earnings date is in error please ignore error. I do my best.

earnings should be out soon. I sold the vast majority in the tens after they announced October sss...which, along with the prior few months, were becoming less impressive.

That means there's an excellent chance for a great quarter. Or, if that doesnt pan out, there's an excellent chance that Duck gets bought out for a Donald Duck sized premium. Or mabye Daffy Duck.

Anyway, I look forward to the release.

Agree with you. Small but a distraction IMO. Just look at market cap vs tangible book value (fraction of it) and that should be a loud scream to mngmnt to get better cash generation going. Investors want to see some fat burning on the debt side.

...thanks for the info LF.

Small experiment, but I'm not a big fan of the two new stores in urban areas.

Although it would be nice if they're able to stuff em up with some of that exisiting inventory and dump it on them Texans.

quack.

A little bit of numbers showing much of midwest/ag belt doing better than other areas of country and one premise to why this is a potential decent turnaround play (stronger consumers over time in ag belt areas hopefully IMO):

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Middle-class-income-fallsbut-cnnm-509297299.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

I was a bit disappointed in the Aug figures. I think the other 3 months (May-July) had more favorable YOY comps because previous year they mismanaged inventory and missed some more high margin seasonal biz.
The other driver to help them going forward is the expense reduction in interest cost (150 basis points) that should help.

I think Q2 is seasonally stronger because of the higher margin seasonal offerings (spring-summer) like outdoor camping, yard furniture/items (like plants/landscaping/tools), etc. Not sure on how many sales days are in that Q and don't have time to look it up, that might also play a factor.

lf,

Why is the July quarter seasonally strong? I could see it being a little better than April or October, but I dont get why its so profitable. Two years back they had a huge July quarter..I think it was over .80/share, greater than January.

Is there some expense item that is much lower in the July quarter?

Taking a quick glance, the upcoming Oct quarter is usually weak...similar to April. Do you think they have a chance at profitability, or at least vast improvement over the April numbers (ex the insurance gain)? The August sales numbers were fine, but a bit dissapointing given the huge Same Store sale improvements in May June July.

Best 'O' Duck to ya.

Decent quarterly numbers from them reported today, with some insurance settlement money helping next Q #s look good (although obviously one time).

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Duckwall-ALCO-Stores-Reports-pz-3079111296.html?x=0&.v=1

I did not add today but will tomorrow if it stays down in this area.

Ya the margins are obviously the big potential problem although in last CC they mentioned 30%+ for the year expectation.

Just picked up some S&P (SPY). Started small position in ETM for the earnings report. Got just over 60% cash even after doing that so nice to put a little $ to work finally.

I'll flip the S&P if I can get a couple %.

goog job lf...great sss comps for the past several months. I havent added any.

best.

I dipped back into a few more on the revs #s from June and have been churning a few shares.

Have been weathering this selloff rather well and am actually contemplating putting some $ in the S&P. How boring LOL.
Gives me time to concentrate on fishing though and keep my gain over the S&P (performance wise) somewhat intact for the year

...hey, I'm actually no longer down on this Quacker. Not sure it that'll hold. Nice recovery from the earnings selloff.

best.

lf, sss were very strong. Real question is margins since decent sales last qtr didnt get to the bottom line.

best.

Pretty impressive June #s from DUCK that they hinted at in the CC. Even a bit stronger than I would have thought.
Still holding a bit under 1/2 my original position but remain unsure of where their margins are going to end up going forward.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/DuckwallALCO-Stores-Reports-pz-210791045.html?x=0&.v=2

LOL.
Ya I dumped a bit over half my position today. My big question mark was where would margins drop to.
I can handle 30-32, but I have a hard time holding much of this if they'll be in the high 20%s.
No idea if they'll be able to strengthen margins much going fwd so had to sell at a loss and move mostly on. Will hold a little since I looked into the company.
Didn't get to listen to CC yet. Wonder why shrink shrinkage didn't help more on the margins side (or if shrink didn't drop as much as planned). Also SGA was slightly higher than what I was looking for.
Those 28%+ GMs are pretty ugly for them from a historical perspective.


On the plus side in the port, still good amounts of cash so market going down is fine with me (for now).

I'm still a neon tetra.
Clown fish are still way bigger so still got me beat

Looks like I'm gonna get some fishin' in this weekend woohoo! That'll help reduce the stress. Enjoy the weekend Mr clownfish. The sea anemones should protect you.

...I think I just moved down in size from king mackeral to clownfish.

have fun fishin..

Looks like I get to stay a neon tetra.

Gross margins were a fair amount below my modeling expectations and way below last year. That dampens my enthusiasm over their CC commentary last Q where they mentioned Q2 should have higher margins YOY.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/DuckwallALCO-Stores-Reports-pz-393546486.html?x=0&.v=1

Eh that's OK, I get to go fishing this weekend.
If I see a Duck on the lake I'll be sure to release some, uh, energy in its direction.

I guess if I blow up the photo image I am pretty big:

http://fc05.deviantart.net/fs34/f/2008/305/b/f/Neon_Tetra_by_secede0.jpg

Not as big as any kind of mackerel and I have a big red streak going...

lf,

thanks for all the info.

You're not a big fish like me? I aint no big fish.

I'm like a medium fish. Like a King Mackeral. Yeah, I'm a King Mackeral.

best.

On gross margins I should also mention in the last CC they were pretty straight forward in syaing q2 and q4 this year they are hopeful of improved margins due to some probs last year that negatively impacted them (for instance Q2 had product deficiencies in apparel and seasonals I think they said which hurt margins).
On q1 I will stick with 31% for myself though and think product mix might keep margins toward that end vs better. Dunno though and I'm new to following this comapny. I do have a decent posiiton in it though (for a little fish).
I'm not a big fish like you

Last year they had help from a tax gain too I think in the net figures. Think they lost almost $3 mill op income so pretty ugly.

However, they have some things going for them that will help comp to last year although there will be some headwind pressure too that last year did not have.

I was modeling them for expenses $32.5 mill SGA, $2.5 mill D&A, about $1 mill int expense.

With those rough #s, it all depends on margins. Historically 32% gross margins might be reasonable.

From previous year's Q1 GM #s:

"Gross margin as a percentage of sales was 31.1% for the first quarter of fiscal 2011, which decreased when compared to 33.4% for the first quarter of fiscal 2010."

Using the rough expense #s, $114.6 mill revs and 31% GMs I get $114.6 (.31)= $35.5 mill $35.5-$32.5 mill SGA & $2.5 D&A= $0.5 mill op income.
Int expense $1 mill gives $-0.5 mill net income.

I htink. I'm multitasking and doing this on the fly so don't rely on the #s

Not sure the gross margins will be 31% either with product mix I am guessing shifting a little bit toward non discretionary items. Not sur ewhat impact the removal of duckwall stores might have too on margins. They did mention in last CC the charges with the closings were pretty much accounted for last Q so not expecting any hangover charges from that.

lf,

I'm not sure how they can avert a big loss this qtr....didnt they lose two million last year q1? Breakeven would be a very very big turnaround, even with the improvements.

Do you really think breakeven is achievable this qtr? If thats true (and I didnt count on that at all), duck would be super cheap.

Yahoo has earnings scheduled for Monday...do you know if thats right? I think they had earnings on June 10 last year.

best.

I added some at $11.52.

It is going to be about margins in this next Q. Expecting some weakness there and results could vary widely from that, but the company reported their 2nd highest revs for Q1 and their headcount went from 4150 to 3650 YOY in the annuals. Then there's the shrink improvement too.
But there will be margin pressure probably from product mix and also what all retailers are facing (distribution costs, etc). The adoption of flow thru model at their Kansas hub should help a bit.

I do kind of like their mix of discretionary and non discretionary items. Have no idea where margins come in with probably more strength in non discretionary lower margin product.

A break even Q would be a nice win for them in the weak Q1 period IMO. Don't know if they'll get that far that quick though. Hoping to avoid a big loss. The comps are easy for a few Qs.

Seems like a cheap value play (with a fair amount of debt) but the retail sector is struggling in the market and DUCK is no exception. Buy when others are selling I guess? At least their YOY comps continue to do well.

bought more at 11.50.

best.

May sales #s:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/DuckwallAlco-May-revenue-apf-216050000.html?x=0&.v=1

Still no one here. Hmm, guess I'll mention it on ZCC board.

Not much of a crowd here (uh, no one looks like). Guess that is good.

Don't know if anyone follows DUCK but I've established a position in the low $12s on earnings and added to it in the $11s recently.