DALLAS, Sept. 22, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's California Economic Activity Index increased in July to a
level of 118.3. July's reading is 27.6 percent above the historical
low of 92.7 set in June 2020. The
index averaged 107.9 points in 2020, 18.9 points below the average
for all of 2019. June's index reading was revised to 116.4.
Our California Economic Activity Index improved by 1.6 percent
in July, and is now up for the thirteenth consecutive month. In
July, six of the sub-indexes increased including nonfarm
employment, house prices, industrial electricity demand, hotel
occupancy, enplanements and state revenues. Three sub-indexes fell
for the month including unemployment insurance claims (inverted),
housing starts and state total trade. The California Index
continued to see solid gains through July and is expected to gain
again in August. The rise in COVID cases this summer was met with
broader access to effective vaccines. California new COVID cases peaked at lower
levels than the winter wave and have trended lower in September.
The expected expansion of vaccine eligibility to younger cohorts
over the next few months will help normalize back-to-school and
back-to-office heading into early 2022. We could see gyrations in
California consumer spending this
fall. Federal unemployment benefits are winding down for many and
the enhanced weekly subsidy ended in early-September. However,
California has also averaged
111,000 net new jobs per month since February. We expect that
strong labor demand and rising wages will help offset some of the
drag from reduced unemployment benefits. California's recovering tourism sector also
saw more positive news with the announcement that international air
travel to the U.S. will resume in November for fully vaccinated
foreign travelers.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of nine
variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing
claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price
index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, hotel occupancy,
enplanements and state revenues. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA), a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank, and
Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping
people and businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in
Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of
$88.4 billion at June 30, 2021.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank