Twin Peaks: Comparing The Two 2021 Bitcoin Tops
24 Novembre 2021 - 9:00PM
NEWSBTC
Speculation has been going on in the crypto community as to whether
the $69k Bitcoin top was the peak of this bull run. Here’s a
comparison between some indicators to see how this top compares
with the $65k April peak. Comparing the Metrics Between The Nov
10th And April 14th Peaks As per the latest weekly report from
Arcane Research, most of the sentiment measuring metrics highlight
the differences between the two tops. The first relevant metric is
the futures open interest indicator, which shows the total amount
of Bitcoin involved in futures contracts at the end of a trading
day. Here is how its chart compares between the April and November
peaks: Looks like April 14th top had decently more open interest As
you can see above, the April peak had almost 50k BTC more in open
interest. This means that there was much more excess leverage in
the market back then. Related Reading | Brace For More
Downtrend: 15% Of Bitcoin Supply Is Now In Loss Below is another
chart that compares the unregulated futures basis between the two
tops. “Basis” is basically the difference between Bitcoin’s price
and the futures price. Average 3-month annualized basis in the
unregulated futures market The unregulated futures market basis
reached almost 50% on April 14th while it was only 17% during
November 10th. The basis gap between the unregulated market and CME
was also higher for the former top, and so was the Korean premium.
The funding rates, as well, showed substantially higher values for
the period. Nov 10th recorded relatively less overheated indicators
What these metrics show is that the futures froth was clearly more
pronounced during the April top, and that the market was more
overextended. Two other indicators, however, had higher values for
Nov 10th. The first of these was the fear and greed index, a metric
that measures how fearful or greedy the market is. Related Reading
| TA: Ethereum Show Positive Signs, Why ETH Could Outperform
Bitcoin The other was the global open interest share of Bybit and
Binance. Here are how these indicators looked like for the two
periods: The metrics where Nov 10th lead April 14th In conclusion
the $69k Nov top has some clear differences from the $65k April
peak. So it’s possible this might not be the bull run peak just
yet. Some other on-chain indicators also back the idea. Bitcoin
Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $56.5k,
down 6% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the coin has
lost 10% in value. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the
price of the coin over the past five days: BTC's price continues to
tumble down | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from
Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Arcane Research
Grafico Azioni Ethereum (COIN:ETHUSD)
Storico
Da Mar 2024 a Apr 2024
Grafico Azioni Ethereum (COIN:ETHUSD)
Storico
Da Apr 2023 a Apr 2024