TORONTO, Jan. 11, 2019 /CNW/ - Global growth is moderating
and coming off peaks achieved in 2017-18. This long predicted
development reflects in part tightening by central banks, a natural
cooling of the pace of growth, and the impacts of elevated
uncertainty owing to developments in financial markets and the
evolution of the China-US trade war.
"The decline in equity markets and movements in certain parts of
the yield curve over the last few months suggests a clear
disconnect between economic prospects as evaluated by markets and
those forecast by economists," said Jean-François Perrault, Senior
Vice President and Chief Economist at Scotiabank. "As the risk
landscape improves in the first months of 2019, the underlying
strength and resilience of the global economy will become more
apparent, and central banks that were in tightening mode will
resume doing so."
Highlights of Scotiabank's Global Outlook include:
- Canada: Growth is
expected to slow modestly to 1.8% during 2019 before rising to 2.0%
in 2020.
- United States: U.S.
economic growth is forecast to slow to 2.4% in 2019, before slowing
further to 1.7% in 2020.
- Mexico: Policies
implemented thus far by the new government have led to a markdown
in growth to 1.6% in 2019, with growth expected to rebound to 2.3%
in 2020.
- United Kingdom: We
assume a hard Brexit is avoided, allowing the UK economy to grow by
1.5% in 2019 and 2020.
- Latin America: Growth
is expected to accelerate or remain quite strong in Peru, Colombia and Chile.
- China: China's economic growth continues to slow on
the back of a trade dispute with the US, authorities' deleveraging
efforts, and ongoing structural changes in the economy.
Read Scotiabank's Global Outlook online at: Markets vs.
Economists.
Scotiabank provides clients with in-depth research into the
factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including
macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends,
commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary, fiscal and
public policy issues. Follow this research on Twitter at
@ScotiaEconomics.
About Scotiabank
Scotiabank is Canada's
international bank and a leading financial services provider in the
Americas. We are dedicated to helping our more than 25 million
customers become better off through a broad range of advice,
products and services, including personal and commercial banking,
wealth management and private banking, corporate and investment
banking, and capital markets. With a team of more than 97,000
employees and assets of $998 billion
(as at October 31, 2018), Scotiabank
trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: BNS) and New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE: BNS). For more information, please visit
www.scotiabank.com and follow us on Twitter @ScotiabankViews.
SOURCE Scotiabank