Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO) Quote

Hi UNPATHED; I didn’t send you a private message. I responded to your message which makes it look like it was a private message but yes, I fully understand and having been in this since Tech clone in 1996 I guess I understand and don’t understand a whole Lotta things anymore! Blessings and hope all is well thank you

West, TCLN/PPHM/CDMO has been a trader dream.

This is a real company, very predictible. We now have a 400-500M/yr capacity with margin from 7 to 35%. Do the maths.

This capacity is FDA/GMP certified.

It is not an easy market to get in. Moat wise.

63Mx15 is just under 1B.

Very curious how you arrived at the $15 per share number? You are assuming our convertible financiers will convert in the $11 to $11.50 range at which point the buyout/takeout agreement is announced???

I don't quite see it, but it certainly is plausible and not out of the realm of possibilities.....if you get this right, you should open up your own Financial Planning office, or even a mini hedge fund???

Either way, it will be interesting to see how we trade over the next month...especially after our next CC, where fingers crossed, we got some solid guidance for the year and years ahead???

And yes...we will watch Halozyme.

Can't reply to your private message. Been following H5N1 for 25 years or so and well aware of catastrophic outcomes. Like to post facts, which were deleted by mods while your headline remains. Hmmm.

Russell rebalance on 5/24...r

I Wonder, Could Cohen/P72 Be TakeoverActivist(Or Buyer)? EasyDouble-Glta,eom.

Thanks. IF That Happens, Many II’s Will Be…

Upset. It Will Be Possible Those II’s Could Force PPS Above That $15 Target, To Lessen Their Losses.

Best Wishes To All StockHOLDERS!

Bavi’s success doesn’t surprise me one bit. Problem is OncXerna is in no position to pay phase 3 royalties. Thus the slow walk of Bavi in all these phase 2 trials. Eliminate phase 3 royalties and allow Bavi to proceed to potential approval without the added financial burden for a yet unproven entity. Take royalties on approval only. Win win for everyone. AIMO

Quite a it of activity the last few days. From Fintel. Anyone know 12 West Capital? Added 2.75 mil shares. Institutions now own 104.87%
File Date Source Investor Type Avg Price
(Est) Shares ? Shares
(%) Reported
Value
($1000) ? Value
(%) Port Alloc
(%)






2024-05-08 13F Russell Investments Group, Ltd. 176 -99.96 1 -99.97
2024-05-08 13F Great Lakes Advisors, Llc 65,283 -2.85 437 0.23
2024-05-07 13F Sei Investments Co 138,963 -1.97 931 1.09
2024-05-07 13F Susquehanna International Group, Llp 91,275 -49.91 612 -48.40
2024-05-07 13F Swiss National Bank 124,400 0.00 833 3.09
2024-05-07 13F Arizona State Retirement System 17,380 -1.49 116 1.75
2024-05-07 13F Cornerstone Planning Group LLC 15 0.00 0
2024-05-07 13F New York State Common Retirement Fund 887,302 17.02 6 25.00
2024-05-07 13F 12 West Capital Management LP 2,750,000 18,425
2024-05-07 13F M&t Bank Corp 103,567 0.13 694 3.13
2024-05-06 13F SG Americas Securities, LLC 0 -100.00 0
2024-05-06 13F Advisory Services Network, LLC 0 -100.00 0
2024-05-06 13F Teacher Retirement System Of Texas 14,073 -3.54 0
2024-05-06 13F Quantbot Technologies LP 0 -100.00 0
2024-05-06 13F HighTower Advisors, LLC 11,241 74
2024-05-06 13F Addison Advisors LLC 158 0.00 1 0.00
2024-05-06 13F Parallel Advisors, LLC 1,956 -1.86 13 8.33

Either going private or being bought out.

11.50+30%

This company is 98% down from the March 2000 madness.
Remeber I bought at 0.25 DEC 99 and sold at 16 MAR 2000.

Since then it was a trader paradise. Shorts and pumpers had fun.

The CDMO industry will florish in the next 5 years.

We will not benefit from this. 15$ and out. Let's see.

(No more poison pill... How in the world you lose 1.25% notes to be replaced by 7%???)

Hint...Watch HALO

Seems to be talk about Bavituximab in the last week?
Don't know what it means?

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2024-05-06/combo-therapy-may-be-advance-against-liver-cancer

https://www.utsouthwestern.edu/newsroom/articles/year-2024/may-combined-therapy-live-cancer.html

Google "Bavituximab" in the last week

How do you know this?

Your Confidence Seems High, But, Just For Clarification…

Are you suggesting that first the PPS will reach $15, then the announced takeover price would be + an additional 30%? So, takeover price = about $20?

Or, When PPS hits about $11.50, the takeover price would be plus the 30% incentive. So, takeover price ends up around $15?

Either way, the tone of your confidence seems to imply that this won’t be something that happens in 2025. Possibly by end of spring? Maybe sooner?…

Thanks in advance for your reply.

Glta Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDERS!

https://share.newsbreak.com/6td5s0ky

As I said last week, it is really unfortunate we will be taken over at 15.

A lot of II bought in the 20's.
More than 90% of stock is in II hands.

Time will tell at what speed we get to 15. It's gonna be like +30% when news hit. Then finito. No more trading...

Looks like the doors at Avid have been opened up with these conferences.
Would have to say that from my point of view our problems are behind us.
How long has it been since our stock has gone up 7 days in a row??

Avid Bioservices to Participate at Upcoming Investor Conferences

May 7, 2024 at 4:05 PM EDT
Download PDF
TUSTIN, Calif., May 07, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Avid Bioservices, Inc. (NASDAQ: CDMO), a dedicated biologics contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) working to improve patient lives by providing high quality development and manufacturing services to biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies, today announced that the company will participate at two upcoming investor conferences. Nick Green, president and chief executive officer, will be the featured speaker in a fireside chat at the RBC Capital Markets 2024 Global Healthcare Conference, and will deliver a corporate presentation at the 2024 Bank of America Securities Healthcare Conference.
Details of the company’s participation are as follows:
RBC Capital Markets 2024 Global Healthcare Conference
Conference Date: May 14-15, 2024
Fireside Chat Time/Date: 4:35 – 5:05 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Location: InterContinental New York Barclay, New York
2024 Bank of America Healthcare Conference
Conference Date: May 14-16, 2024
Presentation Time/Date: 11:55 a.m. – 12:10 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, May 16, 2024
Location: Encore Hotel, Las Vegas, NV
About?Avid Bioservices, Inc.
Avid Bioservices (NASDAQ: CDMO) is a dedicated contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) focused on development and CGMP manufacturing of biologics. The company provides a comprehensive range of process development, CGMP clinical and commercial manufacturing services for the biotechnology and biopharmaceutical industries. With more than 30 years of experience producing biologics, Avid's services include CGMP clinical and commercial drug substance manufacturing, bulk packaging, release and stability testing and regulatory submissions support. For early-stage programs the company provides a variety of process development activities, including cell line development, upstream and downstream development and optimization, analytical methods development, testing and characterization. The scope of our services ranges from standalone process development projects to full development and manufacturing programs through commercialization. www.avidbio.com


Contacts:
Stephanie Diaz (Investors)
Vida Strategic Partners
415-675-7401
sdiaz@vidasp.com

Tim Brons (Media)
Vida Strategic Partners
415-675-7402
tbrons@vidasp.com

Block trade
05/07/2024 14:15:03 EDT V 8.59 199700

Well, we broke through, but low volume, so it may not hold.

how many times do we have to bump up against the 8.50 PPS range before we break through?

The share price is slowly inching higher....can we stay above $8 without news? Also we are only about a month away from our next CC and year end financials....will we have the beat I am hoping for, along with strong revenue projections for next year, and dare I say, some talk of a profit????

And just to throw one more thing into the mix, it seems the FTC is taking a look at the Novo purchase of Catalent to determine whether the sale will lesson competition? So this just throws a little more uncertainty not only for Novo and Catalent shareholders, but also for their customers???

So....I would think this can only help Avid??

Preciously relevant: "The FDA reported that one in five milk samples in the U.S. showed traces of the virus. Samples from regions with infected herds were more likely to have traces of the virus.
The FDA says that pasteurized milk is still safe to drink as pathogens would be killed in the process. However, unpasteurized milk has been shown to have live H5N1 viruses."

Pure FYI: https://share.newsbreak.com/6t0dloe4

Chart starting to show steady increase in pps

Do we know when our next earnings will be announced?

Maybe... when Avid announces that they have acquired enough business to make a profit? Just bouncing around some ideas here

Well the short answer, is I have no idea, but also not really sure what triggered the first leg up and then of course the leg back down(well the down is easier than the up as no doubt some of our convertible financing issuers probably led the shorting charge once they realized that converting was off the table)!

But a possible answer would be a solid beat for this year and increased projections going forward. During the CC, it really did sound like Nick was possibly hinting that they may beat their projections...just they way he spoke and at that time he would probably already have a pretty good idea since the next quarter was almost over by the time they had the delayed CC.

Now if I am wrong here, I will be gravely disappointed, but I am going to say that they break $150 mil last year beating their $137 to $147 projection. Now going forward, they really have to start ramping up and taking advantage of their unused capacity so is there a chance they do $175 mil plus?

And finally, they have used this $400 mil as max capacity for over 2 plus years now....with the ongoing inflation, I am going to say this figure is too conservative. I also believe that once(if) they get closer to $400 mil, they will be able to squeeze out a little more....maybe a fair bit more, but that is all speculation.

And with Steve C in the picture, anything can happen....if he is going for a quick trading profit, we will pay the price...if on the other hand he sees something more....well we just may benefit!

More seriously what will trigger the next leg.

Question for CP.

Where have you been lately? When is the next run to 25+ ??

Hi North,

Just guessing, but probably not. You can bet your bottom dollar however, that they have excellent D&O coverage.

Regards.

WH

Most, if not all, companies have insurance that covers catastrophic damages to company assets. Fires, floods, equipment failures or earthquakes, such as those that have occurred lately in areas of California where CDMO’s plants are located, are examples of such insurance. Even insurance that would cover damages resulting from an airplane crashing into a company’s plant or office facilities might be possible with appropriate insurance premium. I admit I have not checked, but does CDMO have an insurance policy that covers management negligence in performance of its corporate duties?

Well heh, I would so love to be wrong here.....I am hoping they get back into the teens in the next 12 months??? We will see as this one is very difficult to predict either way!

So why do you think the PPS can get nowhere near where it was a couple of years ago? If that is true, why would AVID have bought the covered calls at $28? Think about the whole deal.

FFTT
JBAIN

Interesting.....capacity built out for a specific customer....as in one customer needing all of the extra capacity??? That is certainly not what I ever considered when they started this expansion program....well if there really is a customer that wants to buy Avid...I think that would be great...now we will get nowhere near what the share price was a couple of years ago, but this would certainly shorten the time table to a "decent" payoff for most shareholders!

I am somewhat concerned about the length of time it is taking for their customers to get approval for products currently in front of, or coming soon for the FDA"s nod. Like Djohn, I would have thought that production capacity would have ramped up more than it has....I mean this expansion program was started a couple of years ago and was meant to be designed for customers needing this addtional capacity.....so 2 years later, how much longer before these orders get the go ahead?

My math is not so good, but I think you have to get through $175 mil in revenue before you get to $400 mil....and based on their last CC, their revenue projections for the entire year were only confirmed in the $137 to $147 mil range. Now Nick is not one to over promise and under perform, so I give them the benefit of the doubt that they may even slightly beat the $147 mil number....which is great, but they need to really bump up their revenue projections for the coming year, if this stock price is going to head back into the teens?!!

Next year.....$175 to $200 mil??? Or am I dreaming?

I still believe the capacity was built for a specific customer's product(s) when they get approved so there was no real selling to do, but it all comes down to if/when they get approved. Always a bit of a crap shoot with the FDA. Part of the reason I believe that is the fact the 2021 convertibles interest rate was so low. I know rates were lower, but there had to be a better place to put $125M than at a rate of 1.5%, unless you have confidence something big is going to happen. I really wish we knew the holders of those notes, and if it was the original owner that pulled the rip-cord on the removal of the legend. I think it is more likely that that one entity that filed the 13G and specialized in convertible notes was a secondary buyer that knew of the legend situation and he pulled the cord and made money shorting and covering because they knew it wasn't a real financial hit. Now tied into all that is the capped-calls. That did give the original note holders immediate "profit" and this time around there are no covered calls, but AVID did at least change the indenture so the same situation can't happen. On a final note, if my hunch is correct, and the capacity was built out for a specific customer that may or may not want to buy AVID, in either case it has to make HALO more nervous.

FFTT
JBAIN

LOL, yes I like the way we are moving. But a year age we were near $19. The fact is that the top management has not yet fully excited their plan leaving us vulnerable to a low ball takeover. If they had we would have we would be enjoying $100mil in revenue per quarter and be at $28-30. I had confidence In Avid but I really don't know now.
It's like during the two+ years they were building out manufacturing their commercial team did nothing. When the new capacity came on line they are at conferences with a booth building the brand????? really. I just retired from a 40 year career in sales and sales management. I guess the old saying is so true.
A manufacturing organization can't sell and a sales organization can't manufacture,

Not sure if this has been posted. From Laughing Water

"Starting with the recent positive industry developments, in early February it was announced that Novo Holdings would be purchasing Catalent Inc. (CTLT), a publicly traded CDMO, for $16.5B. Novo Holdings would then sell three fill-finish sites to Novo Nordisk for $11 billion. The fill-finish assets are the real prize here, as Novo Nordisk is the manufacturer of blockbuster weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, and there simply is not enough global fill-finish capacity to meet the demand for these drugs.

This transaction also has the potential to be hugely positive for Avid Bioservices, but in a different way. Avid’s largest customer is Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:HALO), who has traditionally split their business between Avid and Catalent. While this business is not likely to be forced to leave the Novo-Catalent facilities as is the case with the fill-finish business, Novo Holdings and Novo Nordisk are both involved with products that are seen as competition for HALO’s products, and industry whispers are that HALO is not pleased with the idea of outsourcing the production of their drug substance to their competition. As such, HALO may seek to take their business away from Novo-Catalent. HALO is thus presented with a choice. They can either a) choose a new CDMO and go through an FDA review to move their production or b) they can move more production to Avid Bioservices, which would not require FDA approval. There are of course sole source risks to be considered, but it seems likely that Avid could pick up meaningful incremental business."

@djohn, are we in a positive trend yet? Please do explain.

Huge 240k trade just hit

Interesting, 2,000Shares @$8.61 In PreMarket. Glta,eom.

6 Form 4’s filed.

https://ir.avidbio.com/sec-filings

A million shares traded so far.

Will 7.50 to 7.80 be broken??? Still someONE is accumulating.

FFTT
JBAIN

$CDMO Bulls Need To JumpOver $7.85 LID. Glta,eom.

Could Cohen/P72 Be Takeover Activist(Or Buyer)? EasyDouble-Glta,eom.

Unfortunately, the journey is ending soon.
Takeover around 15.
Good luck for the rest.

5 day triple top...lol

The "Good Old Boy" Network in the Corporate Suite thingy .... They protect their own, while shareholders, who have invested with faith and confidence in them to "Do the Right Thing Always" sometimes, many times fall way short in the Commitment, Integrity and Dignity Department, sadly ...... The shareholders become the "Bag holders" so to speak when they fall short of their fiduciary responsibilities and actions that are deleterious to the share price and prospects of the Company going forward .... Blessings to all long shareholders in CDMO!

Services rendered. Represents shares sold to cover tax withholding obligations in connection with the vested RSUs.
He still has millions of shares being held so this is a TAX COVERING PAYMENT Sale ...

Why is a CEO given RSU's or options for performance that resulted in a $17 million loss? Come on BOD! Reward for performance not because someone warms a seat in the corner office.
When I was working I wish I was given equity in my company I could sell to cover my tax obligations for not preforming.
Ok, I'm done. Just frustrated.