Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc (IOVA) Quote

OT. GMH, we're all learning new things (nothing idiotic about that). I have enjoyed this investment for that very reason. I originally went to college for the hard sciences many decades ago, but got away from them in my career choices. It's great digging in again and learning all kinds of new things. I'd like to say I'm enjoying the heck out of this investment because the price is kicking butt, but I guess that's a bit further down the road. In the meantime, I'll keep expanding my knowledge base which in turn helps me gain an understanding of this investment and other investments that I may choose to make or avoid.

You, along with many of the other posters on this board continually push me to expand my own knowledge base. That's been one of the rewards of a good cooperative group of message board posters with similar financial goals but having different life experiences to share.

I keep sharing and risk looking foolish because the end result for me is learning something new. Your exchange with jondoeuk encouraged me to dig in a bit deeper on that particular subject matter for which I'm thankful.

Badgerkid

This is me trying to sound informed but ending up sounding like an idiot. Self taught in the biology area... my area of expertise is finance. I will try to do better background next time. Thanks for the correction. Always appreciated.

jondoeuk, thanks for the nudge. Here's the definitions from NIH / National Cancer Institute:

Hot Tumor: Describes a tumor that is likely to trigger a strong immune response. Hot tumors often have many molecules on their surface that allow T cells (a type of immune cell) to attack and kill the tumor cells. Hot tumors usually respond to immunotherapy. Melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, and cancers of the bladder, head and neck, kidney, and liver are usually considered hot tumors.

Cold Tumor: Describes a tumor that is not likely to trigger a strong immune response. Cold tumors tend to be surrounded by cells that are able to suppress the immune response and keep T cells (a type of immune cell) from attacking the tumor cells and killing them. Cold tumors usually do not respond to immunotherapy. Most cancers of the breast, ovary, prostate, pancreas, and brain (glioblastoma) are considered cold tumors.

https://www.cancer.gov/publications/dictionaries/cancer-terms/def/cold-tumor

While this data does not directly impact any parameter in my valuation (other than now I will incorporate L1 patients in the addressable market), I think the read thru to NSCLC and other cold tumors is encouraging.

Melanoma and NSCLC are usually considered ''hot'' tumours. Looking at data from the US NCI (Dr. Rosenberg's group) in ''cold'' tumours, using 'bulk' TIL (what IOVA use) has yet to work (RECIST responses).

Yes, the shorts will all be future buyers, but the real point is that shorts do not control the share price anymore than the longs do. Yes, there are about 50M shares short but there are 330M shares long (280M float + counter-short positions). If positioning alone controlled the SP, longs would have the upper hand. The stock price is determined by the daily/hourly/minutely (if that is a word) purchases/sales (call be Captain Obvious). As you pointed out, there was an increase of 1M in short positioning, but with a daily volume of 5M shares and assuming 10 trading days, this would represent 2% of the transactions. It also means that the other 49M shares traded were longs reducing/liquidating their positions (and other people/institutions initiated/added to a long position). For me, the real question is why are people liquidating their long positions? Am I missing something that they are seeing or do they not see the value that I am perceiving? The big question I have from yesterday is was there another biotech that released an abstract on MM (or some other target) that raised questions and a flight out of the shares. So far, I have not seen anything concerning, but there is a lot of presentations (and I am not going to go thru them all).

I do not like this at all. Nasdaq and Dow at all time high and IOVa and XBI at a low point. It is clear to many that major indices are about to dive for a serious correction. No wonder why shorts are being arrogant.
IOVA is headed to single digits again. May go down to 9 or even lower. Crazy as this sounds, this is a possibility now. No matter how good the data is, near term, a cash raise is a high possibility. So common shareholders will remain under pressure as the institutional investors have already shorted big time in anticipation of what is to follow. I’m feeling frustrated as this is not fair to everyone who held the stock at under $10 prior to FDA approval.

Pushing almost 300M shares currently. When is the next capital raise expected?

Upcoming events, chats, and the shareholder meeting: https://ir.iovance.com/node/14551/pdf

Just ignored that shorty guy.
I really enjoy this board and do not need that kind of poster on here.

Let me know when you all ignore him too so that he can see that he is posting to no one.

51.2 million shares short on 5/15. That short attack increased the overall short position by a little over 1 million shares. They play an aggressive game, but GMH will remind us that they're all future buyers - eventually.

Timber!! This is trending down and may not hold the $10 line. We'll see.

OT, a personal thank you goes out to all those military families who lost a member of their family in service to my country.

My deepest respect and appreciation.

Badgerkid

I truly enjoy my freedom and I have no wish to waste their sacrifice in how I live my life.

GMH, and the biotech sector is heavily shorted as a whole, IOVA is only a small slice of that pie. If the short position on the sector wins on more stocks than they lose on, they still win. Every indication is they will lose on the IOVA short position, but that's the game they play with a general sector short over that of a single pick. Many small bios struggle and/or fail so it's a reasonable bet to short the entire sector without much discrimination of which company will actually make it. Obviously, there is some variation in how it's allocated and when, and your points are also part of that derivative strategy, but that would be getting into the weeds a bit and seemingly not of real value or concern unless you're a regular trader and trying to time such an event as you've stated before (if memory serves).

As for me, I see plenty of solid reasons to stay long and I see the future value of IOVA growing as each new bit of supportive financial information becomes available.

Some day I'd like to know how all of it actually works, but I have yet to be invited to that secret society's meeting and I don't know the handshake.

I really do not pay much attention to short interest. There are a lot of reasons why institutions/investors may be short the stocks including hedging against convertible bonds, MM hedging against short call/long put positions, long/short HF trading strategies, etc. The one thing I will look for is a very high borrowing fee (10%+) as that may be indicative of a short squeeze, but those are usually short-lived and only trading opportunities. Just remember, all shorts are future buyers of the stock... by definition.

Looking at historical prices has no value. People make the argument that it needs to get back to $50 because they now have an approved product. This makes as much sense as saying it has to go back to $4 because it was below $4 before. Facts change over time (internal to the company and external). The only think that matters is the current price and where one thinks the price is going in the future. Forward looking facts are what matters (next quarter revenue and expenses), not last quarter/years/5-years.

🤡 what stench? They had 700K of revenue and lost over $112M last qtr. Wtf lol.. 🤡💯

🤡 Post a 3 year chart and let's see if you can figure that one out. This was over $50 and went as low as $4 too and could be about to roll over again. The Financials oh boy you picked a doozy to pump!!! 🤡💯

🤡 This company lost between $200M and almost $500M over the last 5 years. Wow this doesn't look good at all! LMFAO 🤡💯

🤡 It's on IHUB, just click on the chart and history. Go back and look as it was a lot higher than $26 so you are completely wrong and your pumping!!! 🤡💯

🤡 This was higher than $26 if you go back and look at the chart!! You are upside down pumping away. How classless. You want another sheeple to buy your chit!! You don't even know what you own!! Lol 🤡💯

Good luck to all of us here. I believe I saw one analyst now stating in the $26 dollar range. If I find it I will post.

Thanks surfkast. Later today we'll have the short interest report for May 15. The short attack happened before the May 15 cut off date, so I'll be curious to see if they managed to lower the total shares short, or if they foolishly went higher. Interpreting such data is a bit of an art form, as we never really know all of the balancing that goes on with these major funds and the derivatives.

Good luck to you.

They cannot provide any updates beyond the cut-off date so do not expect anything in that regard. I am looking to see the swimmers plot to see how the individual patients are performing... this is more insightful than the averages and medians.

GMH, yes, footnotes can matter. It may be too quick since the cut-off date, but maybe they'll provide even better news at the presentation having another month and a half of additional data that could be shared. No need to, but who knows with this management team. I've said it before, they're cagey at times in how and when they share data and information with the public. So far I have no reason to worry as they continue to deliver (but I'll worry anyway as I always do). The goal remains the same, I'm holding and slowly adding if and when conditions warrant and dollars are available. My core position remains intact. Good luck.

Analysis update. Reiterating a strong buy for all reporting.

Also:
Institutions' substantial holdings in Iovance Biotherapeutics implies that they have significant influence over the company's share price
A total of 8 investors have a majority stake in the company with 52% ownership
Insider ownership in Iovance Biotherapeutics is 10%

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-iova/iovance-biotherapeutics/news/institutional-investors-may-overlook-iovance-biotherapeutics

BNP Paribas Financial Markets Acquires 251,536 Shares of Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:IOVA)
Posted by Defense World Staff on May 21st, 2024

https://www.defenseworld.net/2024/05/21/bnp-paribas-financial-markets-acquires-251536-shares-of-iovance-biotherapeutics-inc-nasdaqiova.html

Thanks for this Badger. As I was reading thru, I noted that they said that the CR rate was 5/22 (22.7%) vs in the press release, it was 7/23 (30.4%). I was initially puzzled by that but then noted the footnotes on the PR the Abstract cut-off date was 12/22/23 and the data cut-off 4/17/24 so in 4 months there was 1 more patient included but also 2 new CRs (either the new patient or more likely a conversion of 2 PRs to CRs). This indicates an ongoing deepening of response which is a very good sign. Wonder if we will get a sell-off when they abstract numbers are presented as people will think either " data not as good initially presented" or "company fraud in pumping the numbers" without really comprehending the true significance.

So my take on the data is that it was really exceptionally good. First off, there was the possibility that the original 12 patients progressed (after an additional 12 months), but this does not seem to be the case. The ORR remaining close to the original 67% was pleasantly surprising and the fact that the CR stepped up to 30% from 25%... this is the real win.

While this data does not directly impact any parameter in my valuation (other than now I will incorporate L1 patients in the addressable market), I think the read thru to NSCLC and other cold tumors is encouraging. Given this data, I hope that IOVA does not entertain a buyout. I think that, if the data readouts maintain this efficacy, we could go from a biotech clinical startup, to a biotech commercial company to a Big Pharma company.... willing to wait 5-7 years for that if the data continues to read out.

Here's the actual abstract - sciencey stuff. When you read an abstract, you'll understand why it should never be posted without an actual explanation for all laypeople. This is why the abstract alone would not help the market get a handle on value. Here's my understatement for today - the results look good and promising (that's science talk for holy cow, those are great). Enjoy:

https://meetings.asco.org/abstracts-presentations/233024

Someone knows data from 301. The fact they are announcing 23 patient data from 201 trial at ASCO with fanfare suggests they are seeing a similar read out. They are confident!

The CMO (in an email interview to FB) suggested that an ORR readout from TILVANCE-301 could be used to support an accelerated approval in the front-line setting and to covert Amtagvi monotherapy's post anti-PD-1 into a full approval. The PhIII will then continue to potentially seek a full approval for the combo based on PFS.

Thanks for the posts today! Looking good to me.

From Iovance, data readout for ASCO:

https://ir.iovance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iovance-biotherapeutics-announces-clinical-data-frontline

Always go to the source.

Good luck to the longs.

Our results to me an Amateur investor are very solid & strong enough to move the needle tomorrow upward.

On 5-31-24, I suspect we get the meat vs today’s Potatoes so to speak.

Clearly we are now in play to me, if we were not before today for a potential buyout by Merck to combine with Keytruda in Frontline applications in my opinion.

Excited to hear what Iovance says on 5-31 & then their Investor Conference to follow.

In my opinion this should take is into June between $14 & $16 barring any negative news

#CureCancer

The abstracts https://meetings.asco.org/abstracts-presentations/233024 https://meetings.asco.org/abstracts-presentations/239736 https://meetings.asco.org/abstracts-presentations/233971

ASCO https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iovance-biotherapeutics-announces-clinical-data-210000477.html

From Stocktwits: Not able to verify yet.

https://stocktwits.com/Portnablagh/message/574120787

And as we've seen, Iovance appears to have a good working relationship with the FDA. It comes across as a mutually beneficial approach in how they've been working together to improve the flow of data, trial results, and enhancing the ability to give a complete response to all questions that need to be addressed in their BLAs and prior to approvals/decisions. Iovance does seem to be fully engaged in this area of their business. I do wish we had better details regarding revenues and insurance amounts, but I will accept that it's still too early in the ramp-up to have a good understanding of that aspect until well into the commercialization phase of Amtagvi.

Thanks again for your insights and detailed discussion.

You have to be approved by ASCO for any oral presentation and that is only done if it would be of interest to the audience, so that is a good sign. Pretty much anybody can present posters.

In reviewing the 2024 Corporate Update, the IOV-202 was actually 12 patients with an 8/12 OR (66.7%) and a CR of 3/12 (25% or 37.5% if responders). I will be comparing the update against those benchmarks as I think that is what the market will do... it is a high hurdle so may be another drop but anywhere near that is an easy FDA approval.

GMH, thanks for the clarification.

I'm not certain how much detail the abstract will provide, it should highlight the key points. More detail will be provided on May 31 at the ASCO. My primary response regarding the ASCO is that Iovance has agreed to conduct an oral presentation because they have very good results to share and want to do it in a public and visible forum. Why would they otherwise? One thing I do believe is that Iovance has been a bit cagey in sharing info, but they always back it up with very good results when they do finally provide the details.

IMHO of course.

In the "Good" category, the say simply ">34% for ORR and >= 7% for CR". In the same box, they also give a "Better" set of numbers. If only the first numbers are met, it would not be approvable. I think even if they just hit the "Better" numbers, the SP will sell off because that is lower than the initial topline read. Really need to be at the previous top-line read or better which should give a SP bump depending on the exact results.

With anticipated good news the PPS sucks!

GMH, regarding the statistically significant difference, I thought that was addressed in the video (I'll go back and re-watch later), but maybe I'm just thinking it was discussed because the numbers that I've seen expressed and what I think will be presented will be statistically better than Keytruda alone and significantly so.

Thanks for the reminder of what will matter here. I don't totally understand the market's assignment of value to IOVA right now, but it still may simply be all about earnings and revenue and as of right now, that is still somewhat of an unknown and may remain so until the Q2 report.

Bigger players, more control, understanding the dates of certain info being made public. Not much to do but ride it out. I wouldn't have guessed sub $10, but I also wouldn't have guessed sub $12. I'll still say that anything purchased below $15 is cheap in my estimation of what IOVA will be before year's end.

IMHO of course.

Also, we are now up to 43 ATCs and that list includes 12 of the top 15 cancer hospitals as ranked by Newsweek. Not sure if they will hit their target of 50 ATCs by month's end. Will be close and if not, definitely shortly thereafter.

I concur with your statement Badger. I think we will get some top-line info today but the real details will be during the presentation and investor call afterwards.

My big concern is that the additional data will need to be "just as good" as the first 10 patient report out (pretty high bar) or we will have a sell-off like we did when MM cohort 4 was reported (data was good enough for approval but not as spectacular as cohort 2). On the plus side, they now know to sub-group by disease burden and the SP did not run up into the report like it did for the cohort 4 report out. The one thing that the MoneyPig video got wrong is that Keytruda+TIL not only has to be better than Keytruda alone, but has to be statistically significantly better. The CI range for 10 patients is pretty high so adding more patients will help, as long as the ORR, CR and DoR rates do not drop too much.

Regarding the SP, I always try to ask myself, "What am I seeing that the market is not?" BUT ALSO "Is the market seeing something that I am blind to?" It is easy to get caught up in what can go right, but costly if you do not pay attention to what can go wrong. Thus I always validate my model against data as it emerges and adjust my intrinsic value calculation accordingly.

Looking forward to the ASCO update (topline) and investor call. Other next big datapoint will be Q2 earnings where hopefully we can get some insights into conversion of patients from "Enrolled to Infused"... think the market may still have some confusion around that so hoping for clarification on the timelines and conversion rates.

MNGopher, ASCO is about the science, not the stock price. If it's in the study, it gets reported. With that said, I do think the abstract will follow the usual structure and highlight key points and I suspect the actual oral presentation on May 31 at the ASCO will offer far more detailed information. We're all hoping for very solid data, but we also need the market to understand what all of that data means to the value of the company for the share price to rise.

It's not a straight line from data points to profits. The information could easily be supportive to the share price and may even get a few more analysts on board with a buy recommendation or higher target prices, but the market doesn't always respond in the manner many of us would expect (as seen with the current price). I think we're going to get great data from the ASCO presentation, I don't know how the stock will respond (logic doesn't always apply to market reactions). It's also possible that some blame should lie with the company, it's PR, and it's IR. Again, I don't know that they should spend too much time worrying about the current share price if they're focused on building a dynamic and very profitable company. I'm still here for the future, not next week's stock price.

You know my thoughts, my reasons to be long haven't changed, the company is executing on its plan, the commercialization of Amtagvi is moving at a good clip (or so it would seem), so I'll continue to hold my core position for the higher highs. If something changes in a material way, I will reassess and make a new plan, or adjust my position as necessary. The share price is only part of that planning process, but the decline has caused me to reexamine my plan. For now, I see no reason to change my plan because I see the future value of Iovance being significantly higher than the current share price.

Good luck to all longs in IOVA.

OT, good morning everyone. The bad weather is gone, the sun is out and most power is restored in the area. A few trees damaged or down, but minimal damage overall and repairable. Good neighbors make this process easy. Other spots in the county and surrounding counties got it a lot worse and some are still without power here in southern WI.

Greenfield, IA got hit hard and sadly major damage and some loss of life. Nothing nearly that bad up here thank goodness.

The side of beef in my freezer is fine. A full chest freezer can usually keep things frozen up to 48 hours without power if you don't open them up. Had the power stayed out much longer, we would have been throwing a big neighborhood barbeque - no sense wasting it.

Thank you all for your kind thoughts and prayers.

Badgerkid

Good Morning Ihub, after reviewing Acerta’s “ways” of reporting, based only from past experience with Wayne Rothbaum’s strategy, he tends to dummy down today’s presentation.
He loves complete silence while he works his magic behind the scenes.

He has in the past tried to ensure nothing major is reported in this type of forum.

I’m NO expert here, but I suspect we may see the same strategy playing out today.

Wayne loves to drop BIG news in an unexpected fashion, historically speaking.

His strategy seems to generate a bigger positive response from The Street, Wholesale as well as Retail.
Giving Iovance a real shot at a larger buyout $number than one may expect.

Fred is “in charge” so mabye it will play out different today…. We will see.

Either way to me it’s up to Wayne, Fred & Merck when they finally announce someday/Some-year a buyout in my opinion.

I’m sure we would all love some great news to be released today.

Lets hope for higher highs & higher lows. Its been a brutal $8 beatdown from a few months ago so much Manipulation by the MM’S & orchestrated Short’s every single day for way, way too long.

To me it seems illegal & criminal, in my opinion.

Stay Strong Longs in the face of adversity.
Our day will come when we $chool them into radio & message board silence & the Short’s get what they have coming for their blatant abuse of the system in my opinion.

#CureCancer

Sorry to hear about your troubles. Glad you are safe and things are under control.
Stay safe. My wife and I driving to Salt Lake City with our dog to visit our daughter over Memorial Day weekend. Just checked in a hotel
In Missoula Montana for the night. Best wishes to all of us at ASCO. I’m praying the combo data is blockbuster.

Glad everyone is safe... that is the most important thing. Good luck on the clean-up. Hope it is just debris and no structural damage. No family still in Iowa, but friends. Nobody from that area that I know of.

Badger, holy cow! I pray for you & your family & community to stick together & make it thru this funnel cloud/ mini tornado safely.
Ihub & the members are here for emotional support.
In time things hopefully return to normal best you all can.
Stay Strong Badger & all will be ok soon.
#CureCancer