DEALWATCH: JAL And Airline Alliances In Asia
14 Settembre 2009 - 5:01PM
Dow Jones News
A tug of war is unfolding for struggling carrier Japan Airlines
Corp. (9205.TO) between alliances Oneworld and SkyTeam, the latest
move in airline rationalization following Air China Ltd's (0753.HK)
expanded stake in Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (0293.HK) and the
tie-up between British Airways PLC (BAY.LN) And Spain's Iberia
Lineas Aereas de Espana SA (IBLA.MC).
But Oneworld - the smallest of the big three global airline
groupings - appears to be in a lose-lose situation.
Keeping Japan Airlines (JAL) on board risks straining the
balance sheet of AMR Corp.'s (AMR) American Airlines, Oneworld's
biggest member by enterprise value, if it takes an equity stake in
JAL.
Losing JAL would spare American's finances, but potentially at
the cost of losing Oneworld's second biggest revenue generator and
leaving a big hole in Oneworld's Asia coverage - the fastest
growing region for air travel.
Sure, with $2.8 billion in cash and short-term investments at
hand as of end-June 2009 American could pony up the Y30-50 billion
JAL is believed to be panhandling for.
But American Airlines' long-term solvency position is arguably
even worse than JAL's. Total debt to total capital at American is
203% and 142% at the parent AMR Corp. level, the highest for the
big carriers operating under the Oneworld flag. And American
doesn't have much of a liquidity buffer: it drew down its entire
$255 million revolver back in September 2008 and burnt through $2.2
billion worth of cash and short-term investments on its balance
sheet in the last 12 months.
At Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), JAL's other potential investor,
total debt to total capital, although not fantastic, is
considerably lower at 94%. Delta also had $4.9 billion of cash and
short-term investments to tap at June-end, an undrawn $500 million
revolver (although due to be renegotiated some time in 2010), and
no pressing bond refinancing until 2012.
If fellow SkyTeam member Air France-KLM (AF.FR) were to pitch in
with a joint offer then Delta's burden is defrayed further.
Given the circumstances, American would probably prefer not to
chuck $300-$500 million at JAL. However, the risk is a Y50 billion
placement at current market rates would give Delta an 11.2% stake
in the Japanese airline and turn the screws on it to jump ship and
join Skyteam.
To be sure, a SkyTeam outfit taking a JAL stake doesn't preclude
it from remaining in the Oneworld camp. Air China has just shy of
30% of Cathay, yet it is a member of Star Alliance while Cathay
sits with Oneworld.
But Tokyo's bureaucrats have been squawking about the wisdom of
a Delta tie-up since August and have now been joined by
politicians. Given the carrier's quasi-public status that may cause
concerning among Oneworlders.
A defection by JAL, which joined Oneworld in April 2007, would
disembowel the coalition of its second largest revenue generator.
Oneworld estimates that two-thirds of revenue in its decade of
existence would not have been generated had the organization not
existed
(http://www.oneworld.com/ow/news/details?objectID=16588).
Alas, Oneworld also has the patchiest footing in the Far East.
Bar JAL, the clan can only claim Cathay, and - at a stretch -
Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN.AU) as Asian carriers.
SkyTeam has China Southern Airlines Co. (1055.HK) and Korean Air
Co. (003490.SE), and Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWA), which is to be
folded into Delta, already uses Tokyo's Narita airport as a de
facto Asia hub.
Star Alliance has Singapore Airlines Ltd. (C6L.SH), All Nippon
Airways Co. (9202.TO), Asiana Airlines Inc. (020560.KQ) and Thai
Airways International PCL (THAI.TH) among others.
China Eastern Airlines Corp. (0670.HK) is being courted by both
Oneworld and SkyTeam.
Both camps and their advisers may want to turn up the charm
offensive for one of the few remaining Asian carriers that sits
outside a global airline coalition.
Given what's at stake for American and Oneworld they need all
the charm and money they may have.
(Jamie Miyazaki is a columnist for Dow Jones Newswires covering
Asia. He can be reached at +852 2832 2320 or by email:
jamie.miyazaki@dowjones.com. Dow Jones Newswires is enhancing its
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