SEC dropping XRP case was “priced in” since Trump's election: analysts

Crypto investors rejoiced after one of the industry’s longest-standing legal battles was overturned by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, yet markets have seemingly accounted for the victory months ahead of the announcement, according to industry watchers.

On March 19, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse revealed that the SEC would dismiss its legal action against Ripple, ending four years of litigation against the blockchain developer for an alleged $1.3-billion unregistered securities offering in 2020.

However, the outcome may not be as “bullish” since markets may have already priced in this development since President Trump’s election, according to Dmitrij Radin, the founder of Zekret and chief technology officer of Fideum, a regulatory and blockchain infrastructure firm focused on institutions.

SEC dropping XRP case was “priced in” since Trump's election: analysts

Ripple’s CEO said the SEC is dropping its case against the blockchain developer. Source: Brad Garlinghouse

“Yes they are dropping the case but there was already the appeal,” he told Cointelegraph on the March 20 Chainreaction X show:

“One of the most talked about and oldest cases in crypto has been won. It’s great for the market and Ripple as it can start its expansion in the US. But in general, it’s already priced in. I don’t see a big impact on price or the market.”

XRP/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Despite an 11% relief rally after the March 19 announcement, the XRP (XRP) token is unable to remain above the key $2.5 psychological mark. The token fell over 6.3% since March 19, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

SEC dropping Ripple case was “already expected” - Nansen analyst

Other analysts also attribute the XRP token’s lack of momentum to investors expecting an end to the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple Labs, paired with generally poor market sentiment.

“I’d attribute it to the market already pricing it in as well as the general market situation,” Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, told Cointelegraph, adding:

“It was, to be honest already expected at this point and the macro environment and general uncertainty are not doing XRP any favors.”

Still, some technical chart patterns point to a potential 75% XRP rally after the end of the SEC’s lawsuit.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

As of March 21, XRP bounced after testing the triangle’s lower trendline, eyeing a rise toward the upper trendline— around the apex point at the $2.35 level—by April. The ultimate target for this possible breakout is $4.35 by June, up 75% from the current price levels.

Conversely, a drop below the lower trendline could invalidate the bullish setup, setting XRP on the path toward $1.28. The bearish target is obtained by subtracting the triangle’s maximum height from the potential breakdown point at $2.35.

Despite XRP’s price trajectory, the SEC overturning the case will have a beneficial “long-term effect on the market because of the narrative change,” and investors' expectations of a more crypto-friendly SEC, added Fideum’s Radin.