Hartford-West
Hartford, Conn., El Paso,
Texas, and Louisville,
Ky. take top spots in annual ranking of areas poised
for highest home price appreciation and sales growth
SANTA
CLARA, Calif., Dec. 7, 2022
/PRNewswire/ -- With affordability on home buyers' minds as
interest rates continue to increase and outsized price tags have
become the pandemic-born norm,
Realtor.com® offers hope – and helpful
information – for buyers with its 2023 Top Housing Markets
forecast. These markets are not only poised to see the strongest
combined growth in home sales and listing prices in the coming
year, but up to this point they have seen lower price increases, a
relatively smaller affordability crunch than other markets across
the U.S.
Mainly concentrated in mid-size markets east of the Mississippi, with local industries tied to
manufacturing, education, healthcare and government, this year's
top 10, in rank order, are Hartford-West
Hartford, Conn., El Paso,
Texas, Louisville, Ky.,
Worcester, Mass., Buffalo-Cheektowaga
N.Y., Augusta-Richmond County, Ga., Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich., Columbia, S.C., Chattanooga, Tenn., and Toledo, Ohio. (See below for the full ranking
of the 100 largest U.S. markets.)
Home sales across the top 10 markets are forecasted to grow by
5.2% year-over-year in 2022, whereas the national homes sale
projection is for declining sales (-14.1%). Additionally, average
home prices in the top 10 are expected to increase 7.3% – compared
to 5.4% for the U.S. as a whole.
At a time when housing costs are a concern for many, these areas
offer relative affordability, having experienced less of a price
surge than other extremely hot, pandemic-era markets. They also
have a greater share of homeowners who own their homes outright,
without a mortgage, giving more residents equity to build on. In
the top 10 markets, about 23% of housing inventory is affordable at
the median income level, compared to just 17% of affordable homes
nationally. Better affordability offers some insulation from the
impact of rising mortgage rates.
"As many households keep a close watch on their spending, we
expect these top housing markets to be in relatively high demand,"
says Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. "We've seen lower price
increases, more general affordability and more use of
government-backed mortgage products for veterans, first-time and
minority buyers in these top markets, providing opportunities for
all home buyers to stretch their homebuying dollars. Many of these
areas flew under the radar in the pandemic frenzy, and are now
well-positioned to bubble up with solid job prospects without the
big-city price tag.
Top Markets Sidestepped Steep Prices of 2022
This
year's top 10 housing markets didn't get as caught up in the wild
buying frenzy – and price increases – of 2022 as other areas. Sale
prices in the 12 months ending August
2022 increased by 10.5% on a year-over-year basis, compared
to a growth rate of 12.6% for all 100 largest metros. The top
markets have also seen less of a dip in sales in recent months,
with sales declining by 9.1% year-over-year, compared to an average
decline of 12.3% for all 100 metro areas.
"Made in America" Mid-Sized Metros Poised to
Bubble Up
Representing a shift from remote-work and
tech-industry influenced home buying, this year's top markets have
a renewed focus on domestic industry and trade. The pandemic
exposed an achilles heel of the far-flung supply chains that had
become the norm, namely, that logistics can be disrupted by a wide
array of events. This has renewed corporate, government, and
consumer focus in these markets where "Made in America" happens.On
average, these mid-sized metros employ a higher proportion of
workers in manufacturing, government, education and healthcare jobs
relative to the 100 largest US metros, while jobs in tech,
professional services, information technology and
leisure/hospitality are less common in these areas. Having largely
avoided the pandemic housing boom that we saw in other markets,
home buyers in the top markets can find solid job prospects and
affordable housing options.
Attractive to Out-Of-Town Buyers
Almost half of the
buyers looking at the top 10 markets are from areas outside those
states. For example, in Hartford,
Conn., with a median price of $375,000 in October
2022, homebuyers from New
York, Boston and
Washington, DC, were leading the
wave of out-of-state views in the third quarter of 2022, finding a
significant value proposition compared not only to the high price
of houses in New York City
($670,000), but also the national
median ($425,000). With remote work
opportunities still robust, and affordability top of mind, these
markets will continue to draw buyers from out of state.
Buyers Take Advantage of Government-Backed Loans
Home
sales in the top 10 metros also tend to leverage more
government-backed mortgage products such as VA loans and FHA loans.
Between Jan.-Aug. 2022, the share of
mortgaged-sales with a VA loan was 9.4% in the top 10 markets vs.
7.5% among all the 100 markets reviewed. These types of loans help
buyers safely enter the market with lower down payments and often
slightly lower mortgage rates.
Realtor.com® 2023 Top Housing Markets
1. Hartford-West
Hartford et al, Conn.
November
2022 median home price: $372,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +6.5%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +8.5%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +15.0%
2. El
Paso, Texas
November
2022 median home price: $291,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +8.9%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +5.4%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +14.3%
3. Louisville et al, Ky-Ind.
November 2022 median home price: $290,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +5.2%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +8.4%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +13.6%
4. Worcester, Mass.-Conn.
November 2022 median home price: $447,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +2.5%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +10.6%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +13.1%
5. Buffalo-Cheektowaga et al, N.Y.
November 2022 median home price: $240,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +6.3%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +6.0%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +12.3%
6. Augusta-Richmond
County, Ga.-S.C.
November
2022 median home price: $319,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +6.2%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +5.7%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +11.9%
7. Grand Rapids-Wy., Mich.
November 2022 median home price: $358,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +1.6%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +10.0%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +11.6%
8. Columbia, S.C.
November 2022 median home price: $300,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +7.7%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +3.6%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +11.3%
9. Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.
November 2022 median home price: $397,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +2.9%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +8.2%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +11.1%
10. Toledo, Ohio
November 2022 median home price: $161,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +4.2%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +6.7%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +10.9%
Realtor.com® 2023 Housing Forecast – 100
Largest U.S. Metros (Ranked)
Rank*
|
Metro
|
Combined Sales
&
Price Change (% Y/Y)
|
Sales Change
(% Y/Y)
|
Price Change
(% Y/Y)
|
1
|
Hartford-West
Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.
|
15.0 %
|
6.5 %
|
8.5 %
|
2
|
El Paso,
Texas
|
14.3 %
|
8.9 %
|
5.4 %
|
3
|
Louisville/Jefferson
County, Ky.-Ind.
|
13.6 %
|
5.2 %
|
8.4 %
|
4
|
Worcester,
Mass.-Conn.
|
13.1 %
|
2.5 %
|
10.6 %
|
5
|
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.
|
12.3 %
|
6.3 %
|
6.0 %
|
6
|
Augusta-Richmond
County, Ga.-S.C.
|
11.9 %
|
6.2 %
|
5.7 %
|
7
|
Grand Rapids-Wyoming,
Mich
|
11.6 %
|
1.6 %
|
10.0 %
|
8
|
Columbia,
S.C.
|
11.3 %
|
7.7 %
|
3.6 %
|
9
|
Chattanooga,
Tenn.-Ga.
|
11.1 %
|
2.9 %
|
8.2 %
|
10
|
Toledo, Ohio
|
10.9 %
|
4.2 %
|
6.7 %
|
11
|
Little Rock-North
Little Rock-Conway, Ark.
|
10.8 %
|
6.2 %
|
4.6 %
|
12
|
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.
|
10.4 %
|
4.9 %
|
5.5 %
|
13
|
Des Moines-West Des
Moines, Iowa
|
10.4 %
|
4.1 %
|
6.3 %
|
14
|
Columbus,
Ohio
|
9.6 %
|
4.6 %
|
5.0 %
|
15
|
Pittsburgh,
Pa.
|
9.6 %
|
4.2 %
|
5.4 %
|
16
|
Springfield,
Mass.
|
9.6 %
|
0.7 %
|
8.9 %
|
17
|
Omaha-Council Bluffs,
Neb.-Iowa
|
9.5 %
|
4.7 %
|
4.8 %
|
18
|
Memphis,
Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.
|
9.4 %
|
2.5 %
|
6.9 %
|
19
|
Cincinnati,
Ohio-Ky.-Ind.
|
9.1 %
|
3.0 %
|
6.1 %
|
20
|
Kansas City,
Mo.-Kan.
|
9.1 %
|
1.9 %
|
7.2 %
|
21
|
Virginia
Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.
|
9.0 %
|
3.9 %
|
5.1 %
|
22
|
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.
|
8.9 %
|
-0.6 %
|
9.5 %
|
23
|
Dayton-Kettering,
Ohio
|
8.4 %
|
2.8 %
|
5.6 %
|
24
|
Greensboro-High Point,
N.C.
|
8.4 %
|
2.2 %
|
6.2 %
|
25
|
Winston-Salem,
N.C.
|
8.2 %
|
2.4 %
|
5.8 %
|
26
|
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West
Allis, Wis.
|
8.1 %
|
0.4 %
|
7.7 %
|
27
|
Harrisburg-Carlisle,
Pa.
|
7.7 %
|
4.7 %
|
3.0 %
|
28
|
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.
|
7.7 %
|
3.0 %
|
4.7 %
|
29
|
Lansing-East Lansing,
Mich
|
7.5 %
|
3.1 %
|
4.4 %
|
30
|
Houston-The
Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas
|
7.4 %
|
2.9 %
|
4.5 %
|
31
|
San Antonio-New
Braunfels, Texas
|
7.1 %
|
2.5 %
|
4.6 %
|
32
|
Cleveland-Elyria,
Ohio
|
7.0 %
|
2.7 %
|
4.3 %
|
33
|
Syracuse,
N.Y.
|
7.0 %
|
0.9 %
|
6.1 %
|
34
|
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich
|
6.9 %
|
0.7 %
|
6.2 %
|
35
|
Birmingham-Hoover,
Ala.
|
6.9 %
|
-0.4 %
|
7.3 %
|
36
|
Oklahoma City,
Okla.
|
6.8 %
|
4.2 %
|
2.6 %
|
37
|
New York-Newark-Jersey
City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.
|
6.8 %
|
1.8 %
|
5.0 %
|
37
|
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.
|
6.8 %
|
-1.0 %
|
7.8 %
|
39
|
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.
|
6.6 %
|
1.9 %
|
4.7 %
|
40
|
Rochester,
N.Y.
|
6.6 %
|
1.3 %
|
5.3 %
|
41
|
Durham-Chapel Hill,
N.C.
|
6.6 %
|
0.7 %
|
5.9 %
|
42
|
Tulsa, Okla.
|
6.4 %
|
1.8 %
|
4.6 %
|
43
|
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington,
Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.
|
6.3 %
|
0.6 %
|
5.7 %
|
44
|
Knoxville,
Tenn.
|
6.1 %
|
-1.0 %
|
7.1 %
|
45
|
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton, Pa.
|
5.8 %
|
0.0 %
|
5.8 %
|
46
|
Portland-South
Portland, Maine
|
5.7 %
|
-4.6 %
|
10.3 %
|
47
|
New Orleans-Metairie,
La.
|
5.5 %
|
-0.8 %
|
6.3 %
|
48
|
Dallas-Fort
Worth-Arlington, Texas
|
5.3 %
|
3.1 %
|
2.2 %
|
48
|
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C.
|
5.3 %
|
0.4 %
|
4.9 %
|
50
|
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.
|
5.2 %
|
-0.3 %
|
5.5 %
|
51
|
Richmond,
Va.
|
4.9 %
|
0.1 %
|
4.8 %
|
52
|
Minneapolis-St.
Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.
|
4.8 %
|
-0.8 %
|
5.6 %
|
53
|
Atlanta-Sandy
Springs-Roswell, Ga.
|
4.4 %
|
-0.3 %
|
4.7 %
|
54
|
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
|
4.3 %
|
-0.5 %
|
4.8 %
|
55
|
St. Louis,
Mo.-Ill.
|
4.2 %
|
-0.4 %
|
4.6 %
|
56
|
Madison,
Wis.
|
4.0 %
|
-5.0 %
|
9.0 %
|
57
|
New Haven-Milford,
Conn.
|
3.5 %
|
0.0 %
|
3.5 %
|
58
|
Colorado Springs,
Colo.
|
3.5 %
|
-3.5 %
|
7.0 %
|
59
|
Spokane-Spokane Valley,
Wash.
|
3.5 %
|
-6.1 %
|
9.6 %
|
60
|
Akron, Ohio
|
3.0 %
|
-0.8 %
|
3.8 %
|
61
|
Charleston-North
Charleston, S.C.
|
3.0 %
|
-1.6 %
|
4.6 %
|
62
|
Providence-Warwick,
R.I.-Mass.
|
2.8 %
|
-7.0 %
|
9.8 %
|
63
|
Wichita,
Kan.
|
2.7 %
|
-4.3 %
|
7.0 %
|
64
|
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood,
Colo.
|
2.3 %
|
-1.9 %
|
4.2 %
|
65
|
Albuquerque,
N.M.
|
2.3 %
|
-3.0 %
|
5.3 %
|
66
|
Baton Rouge,
La.
|
2.0 %
|
-5.1 %
|
7.1 %
|
67
|
Jacksonville,
Fla.
|
1.6 %
|
-3.0 %
|
4.6 %
|
68
|
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin,
Tenn.
|
1.6 %
|
-3.4 %
|
5.0 %
|
69
|
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W.
Va.
|
1.5 %
|
-3.5 %
|
5.0 %
|
70
|
Miami-Fort
Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.
|
1.4 %
|
-2.0 %
|
3.4 %
|
71
|
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.
|
1.0 %
|
-2.1 %
|
3.1 %
|
72
|
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.
|
-0.6 %
|
-6.5 %
|
5.9 %
|
73
|
Salt Lake City,
Utah
|
-1.8 %
|
-7.6 %
|
5.8 %
|
74
|
Raleigh,
N.C.
|
-1.9 %
|
-7.3 %
|
5.4 %
|
75
|
Stockton-Lodi,
Calif.
|
-2.2 %
|
-8.6 %
|
6.4 %
|
76
|
Boise City,
Idaho
|
-2.2 %
|
-10.9 %
|
8.7 %
|
77
|
Deltona-Daytona
Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.
|
-3.1 %
|
-7.9 %
|
4.8 %
|
78
|
Lakeland-Winter Haven,
Fla.
|
-3.4 %
|
-5.0 %
|
1.6 %
|
79
|
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.
|
-3.5 %
|
-10.3 %
|
6.8 %
|
80
|
Austin-Round Rock,
Texas
|
-3.6 %
|
-6.6 %
|
3.0 %
|
81
|
Ogden-Clearfield,
Utah
|
-4.6 %
|
-11.0 %
|
6.4 %
|
82
|
Urban Honolulu,
Hawaii
|
-4.7 %
|
-6.6 %
|
1.9 %
|
83
|
Bakersfield,
Calif.
|
-5.5 %
|
-7.5 %
|
2.0 %
|
84
|
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.
|
-5.6 %
|
-8.5 %
|
2.9 %
|
85
|
Riverside-San
Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
|
-5.7 %
|
-7.2 %
|
1.5 %
|
86
|
Cape Coral-Fort Myers,
Fla.
|
-5.8 %
|
-5.9 %
|
0.1 %
|
87
|
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.
|
-6.8 %
|
-10.7 %
|
3.9 %
|
88
|
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade,
Calif.
|
-8.4 %
|
-12.1 %
|
3.7 %
|
89
|
Las
Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.
|
-8.6 %
|
-10.9 %
|
2.3 %
|
90
|
San
Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.
|
-10.0 %
|
-13.3 %
|
3.3 %
|
91
|
Tucson,
Ariz.
|
-10.2 %
|
-14.7 %
|
4.5 %
|
92
|
Fresno,
Calif.
|
-11.5 %
|
-13.7 %
|
2.2 %
|
93
|
Tampa-St.
Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.
|
-11.7 %
|
-15.6 %
|
3.9 %
|
94
|
Los Angeles-Long
Beach-Anaheim, Calif.
|
-12.6 %
|
-15.8 %
|
3.2 %
|
95
|
Palm
Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.
|
-15.5 %
|
-18.3 %
|
2.8 %
|
96
|
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.
|
-15.8 %
|
-18.4 %
|
2.6 %
|
97
|
San Diego-Carlsbad,
Calif.
|
-23.7 %
|
-27.3 %
|
3.6 %
|
98
|
North
Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.
|
-25.5 %
|
-28.7 %
|
3.2 %
|
99
|
San
Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.
|
-26.1 %
|
-28.8 %
|
2.7 %
|
100
|
Oxnard-Thousand
Oaks-Ventura, Calif.
|
-27.4 %
|
-29.1 %
|
1.7 %
|
*Methodology
Realtor.com®'s
model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall
economy to estimate 2023 values for these variables for the 100
largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas by population size.
These markets are then ranked by combined forecasted growth in home
prices and sales. In cases of a tie, forecasted year-over-year
sales growth was used as a tiebreaker.
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