ETHUSD Ethereum

Ether (ETH) price dropped 6% between March 19 and March 21 after failing to break the $2,050 resistance level. More notably, ETH has fallen 28% since Feb. 21, underperforming the broader crypto market, which declined 14% over the same period.

Despite ETH's price struggles, Ether futures open interest hit a record high on March 21. This has led traders to question whether large investors are positioning for a potential rally toward $2,400 while also raising concerns about the risks of cascading liquidations due to heightened leverage.

Ether futures aggregate open interest, ETH. Source: CoinGlass

The aggregate open interest in Ether futures rose 15% over two weeks, hitting a record 10.23 million ETH on March 21. Binance, Gate.io, and Bitget collectively dominate 51% of the market, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) holds 9% of ETH open interest, according to CoinGlass data. This contrasts with Bitcoin futures, where CME leads with a 24% market share.

Demand for leveraged ETH longs has declined

The increased activity in ETH futures contracts typically indicates institutional investors’ interest, as open interest measures the demand for leverage. However, buyers (longs) and sellers (shorts) are always matched, so an increase in open interest does not inherently indicate a positive outlook.

To gauge whether buyers are seeking more leverage, analysts should compare ETH futures monthly contract prices to spot exchange rates. In neutral markets, these derivatives typically trade 5% to 10% higher on an annualized basis to account for the extended settlement period. If traders turn bearish, this premium would likely drop below that range.

Ether futures 2-month annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

The annualized premium for ETH monthly futures dropped to below 4% on March 21, down from 5% two weeks earlier. This decline in the futures premium suggests reduced incentives for traders to use the "cash and carry" strategy, which involves selling futures contracts while simultaneously buying spot ETH to capture the premium as a fixed-income trade.

Spot ETF outflows and reduced network fees pressure ETH price

Part of Ether’s decline stems from weak demand for US-based Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw $307 million in net outflows over the two weeks ending March 20. The macroeconomic environment has also dampened investor confidence, as economists warn of rising recession risks due to global tariff wars, inflationary pressures, and US government spending cuts, according to the Boston Globe.

However, some analysts argue that Ether’s recent price weakness stems from an imbalance between network fees—required to compensate validators—and the interests of decentralized applications (DApps) and layer-2 scaling solutions. This critique was perfectly summarized by Martin Köppelmann, co-founder of Gnosis.

Source: koeppelmann

In a sense, Ethereum’s successful shift to proof-of-stake and the introduction of blob space to enhance scalability through rollups—while significantly boosting the network’s capabilities—are also seen as factors limiting Ether’s price growth. Despite the low transaction costs of its layer-2 solutions, some ETH investors believe they are not being adequately rewarded.

Ether’s price has faced pressure from rising macroeconomic risks, while demand for DApps continues to decline—whether due to increased competition or waning investor interest. Ethereum’s 7-day base layer revenue fell to $605,000 on March 17, a sharp drop from $2.5 million just two weeks earlier.

There is no indication that the surge in ETH futures open interest is driven by bullish positioning. On the contrary, demand for leveraged long positions remains notably weak, suggesting cautious market sentiment.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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