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Bitcoin will break past its $109,000 all-time high sooner than expected despite recent volatile US macroeconomic conditions, according to a crypto analyst. 

“The market may be underestimating how quickly Bitcoin could surge – potentially hitting new all-time highs before Q2 is out,” Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts told Cointelegraph. 

He said this forecast stands regardless of whether or not there is more clarity on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and potential recession concerns.

Trump’s tariffs blamed for Bitcoin’s recent downtrend

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $100,000 on Feb. 2, with many market participants blaming the downturn on Trump’s newly imposed tariffs and uncertainty over US interest rates. 

Coutts based his rosy rebound prediction on easing financial conditions, a weakening US dollar and the People’s Bank of China ramping up liquidity since early 2025.

“Financial conditions have eased dramatically this month, highlighted by the US dollar’s third-largest three-day decline since 2015 and significant drops in rates and Treasury bond volatility,” he said.

“Liquidity remains central to investing in all asset classes,” he added.

Bitcoin is down 3.16% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $85,880, down 3.16% over the past month, as per CoinMarketCap data.

Coutts referred to his March 7 X post, where he said that based on the US Dollar Index (DXY) recent moves through a “historical lens,” it makes it hard to be “anything but bullish” about Bitcoin.

Based on historical DXY performance, Coutts said that by June 1, Bitcoin's 90-day forecast ranges from a worst-case price of $102,000 to a best-case scenario of $123,000. 

Source: Jamie Coutts

The upper target would represent a 13% gain over its current all-time high of $109,000, which it reached on Jan. 20.

BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, recently said that Bitcoin will most likely thrive in a recessionary macro environment.

“I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick said in a March 19 interview with Yahoo Finance.

Related: $16.5B in Bitcoin options expire on Friday — Will BTC price soar above $90K?

It comes at the same time that Bitcoin continues to experience its “least bullish conditions” since January 2023, according to CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index is at 20, its lowest since January 2023, signaling a weak Bitcoin market with low chances of a strong rally soon. 

Based on historical performance, if the score remains below 40 for an extended period, it could signal continued bearish market conditions, similar to previous bear market phases.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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