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Since US President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, Bitcoin (BTC) has swung from a record high of $109,000 to below $78,000 as major tariff announcements from the US and retaliatory moves from trade partners shaved off chunks of cryptocurrency market value and rattled global markets.

“The back-and-forth on tariffs, with Trump sometimes tough and sometimes accommodating, has left markets in a limbo state, where few people are willing to be decidedly bullish but just as few are willing to part with their assets, fearing to be left on the side-lines at the next rally,” Justin d’Anethan, head of sales at Liquify, told Cointelegraph.

By mid-March, investors began regaining confidence as White House messaging pointed to a more measured approach. But mixed signals remain, and with a second wave of “reciprocal tariffs” looming on April 2 — dubbed Liberation Day — market jitters haven’t fully subsided.

Trump’s trade war saga has rattled global markets but evolved to a softer stance by late March.

Colombian tariff standoff and DeepSeek disruption shakes Bitcoin

Bitcoin hovered above $100,000 until Jan. 26, when Trump threatened 25% tariffs on all Colombian imports after Colombian President Gustavo Petro refused to accept US military aircraft carrying deported migrants. Petro accused Trump of mistreating immigrants and retaliated with tariffs of his own.

Colombia quickly reversed course — agreeing to accept deportees — after facing pressure over its dependence on US trade. Bitcoin reclaimed $100,000 shortly after. But market sentiment was further shaken by the sudden rise of Chinese AI firm DeepSeek, whose budget-built model sparked fears of disruption in the tech sector and contributed to risk-off sentiment across markets.

Bitcoin’s dip below $100,000 in late January coincided with US tariffs standoff with Colombia and the rise of DeepSeek. Source: CoinGecko

Tariff war begins and Bitcoin racks losses

On Feb. 1, Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods, effective Feb. 4, citing national emergency over immigration and fentanyl. China, Canada and Mexico all threatened retaliation.

Bitcoin tumbled below $93,000, rebounding only after Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on the Canada and Mexico tariffs on Feb. 3. But the Chinese tariffs took effect as scheduled on Feb. 4 — and that was the last time Bitcoin traded above $100,000.

Bitcoin’s falls as Trump signs executive order, its subsequent recovery was a dead cat bounce. Source: CoinGecko

Bitcoin remained volatile through mid-February. On Feb. 10, Trump announced the removal of steel and aluminum tariff exemptions, raising all metal tariffs to 25%, effective March 12. He then unveiled a “reciprocal tariffs” plan to match foreign import taxes.

Bitcoin held steady around $93,000 and briefly rallied to $99,000. But on Feb. 21, the momentum collapsed following the Bybit hack — the largest crypto breach in history — sending Bitcoin back below $90,000.

Related: In pictures: Bybit’s record-breaking $1.4B hack

Bitcoin falls just before reaching $100,000 following Bybit hack, then copper tariff. Source: CoinGecko

On Feb. 25, Trump added to bearish pressure by ordering a review of potential tariffs on imported copper, citing national security. Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 for the first time since November.

March shows signs of relief for Bitcoin

March kicked off with Trump issuing another order reviewing tariffs on lumber and timber. But crypto briefly rallied after the White House unveiled plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and digital asset stockpile — including XRP, SOL, and ADA.

On March 4, Trump followed through with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and doubled Chinese tariffs to 20%. All three countries vowed to retaliate. The next day, Trump granted a one-month exemption on tariffs for US automakers importing from Canada and Mexico. A day later, the White House extended the tariff pause on many imports that qualify under the USMCA, while still threatening reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

Related: Does XRP, SOL or ADA belong in a US crypto reserve?

Trump credited Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum for “unprecedented” border cooperation. Canada also signaled easing tensions. Bitcoin see-sawed on the $90,000 mark but eventually dipped below on March 7, and it has not reclaimed that level at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, Trump finalized the steel and aluminum hikes. Then on March 13, he threatened 200% tariffs on European wine, champagne and spirits if the EU moved forward with a 50% tax on American whiskey as a retaliation against steel and aluminum tax.

Bitcoin trades at around $84,000 on March 1 and March 16 despite large swings in between. Source: CoinGecko

Tone softens and Bitcoin starts rebound but ‘Liberation Day’ looms

By mid-March, the administration’s tone began to soften. On March 18, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariffs would be tailored to each country’s trade practices and could be avoided entirely if partners lowered their own barriers.

Financial markets, rattled for weeks, began to recover. On March 24, Bitcoin rose to $88,474 on reports that Trump’s next round of tariffs would be more targeted than initially feared.

Softer White House tone sparks Bitcoin recovery. Source: CoinGecko

“In the week leading up to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on April 2, expect market volatility, corporate lobbying for exemptions, preemptive price hikes, and global diplomatic efforts to mitigate the impact,” Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research said in a written analysis shared with Cointelegraph.

“After the tariffs take effect, anticipate inflation spikes, supply chain disruptions, and mixed job outcomes, with potential stock market shocks and retaliatory trade measures from partners like China and Canada possibly slowing US economic growth.”

Meanwhile, Liquify’s d’Anethan said investors should continue monitoring traditional market developments, especially with Bitcoin’s rising correlation with traditional indexes.

“With BTC’s correlation to the S&P 500 and other traditional assets, it wouldn’t be silly to discount tariffs and geopolitical maneuvering,” he said.

With April 2 approaching, crypto markets remain fragile — and investors are bracing for what “Liberation Day” might bring. Trump recently hinted while speaking to reporters that tariffs on automobiles, aluminum and pharmaceuticals are under consideration.

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