QNTUSD Quant

Bitcoin has started the week maintaining relative stability, with its price currently hovering around $87,000 despite a minor 0.4% dip over the past 24 hours. The crypto asset showed upward momentum earlier in the week, briefly rallying beyond $88,000. Although the rally has slowed, the broader market remains focused on whether Bitcoin’s recent performance signals a temporary correction or a more substantial shift in trend. Market analysts have turned to on-chain metrics for additional clarity. One such analyst, Burak Kesmeci, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, recently examined four key cyclical indicators to assess whether Bitcoin’s bullish phase is losing steam. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Realized Cap and UTXO Data Signal a Major Shift—Here’s What to Watch Key Indicators Reflect Mixed Sentiment According to Kesmeci, while some metrics suggest weakness, they do not yet indicate a market top. Kesmeci’s first point highlights the Internal Funding Pressure (IFP) metric, which currently stands at 696K—below its 90-day simple moving average (SMA90) of 794K. Historically, a cross above the SMA90 tends to signal renewed bullish momentum, but for now, the metric suggests a lack of reversal strength. The second metric analyzed is the Bull & Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Kesmeci notes the current setup mirrors earlier soft bearish signals observed during this cycle. The 30-day moving average (DMA30) sits at -0.16, while the longer-term 365-day moving average (DMA365) is at 0.18. Until the shorter-term average crosses above the longer-term trend, the indicator remains tilted toward bearish sentiment. Do 4 Different Cyclical On-Chain Metrics Signal the End of Bitcoin’s Bull Market? “All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term. However, none of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top… pic.twitter.com/tPw74wqERy — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 25, 2025 Bitcoin MVRV and NUPL Provide Additional Clues Kesmeci also assessed the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) score, which remains below its 365-day SMA. Historically, this positioning tends to precede increased selling pressure, although a rebound is possible once the score crosses back above its moving average. The last such event occurred during the August 2024 carry trade crisis, which was resolved with a recovery after macroeconomic pressures eased. Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric sits below its SMA365. Currently, NUPL stands at 0.49, compared to a moving average of 0.53. While not a definitive end to the bullish trend, the metric’s position implies that further strength is needed for Bitcoin to regain bullish footing. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom In Sight As Trump Expected To Soften Stance On Reciprocal Tariffs: Report Kesmeci concludes that these on-chain indicators collectively point to short- and mid-term uncertainty but fall short of confirming a market top. Drawing comparisons to last year’s macro-driven selloff, he suggests that external factors—such as recent economic uncertainty and tariff-related tensions—may be temporarily suppressing BTC’s performance. If macroeconomic conditions stabilize, BTC could resume its upward trajectory, mirroring the recovery seen in 2024. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView