Edison issues outlook on Carbios (ALCRB)
15 Ottobre 2018 - 2:33PM
H118 results were broadly in line with our expectations and Carbios
(ALCRB) retains sufficient cash to finance its business until H219.
The company continues to make progress with its transformation from
a research body to a commercial enterprise. We expect the first
commercial revenues from Carbiolice in 2020. Our DCF indicates a
valuation for Carbios of €15/share.
We continue to use a DCF-based valuation approach for Carbios,
although the timing and scale of future cash flow projections
remain uncertain, and will be dictated by the pace of technological
development and the commercial environment. Our DCF indicates an
unchanged valuation of €15/share although, at the current share
price, the market appears to be assuming a 65% probability of
Carbios achieving our revenue and margin projections. In addition
to the uncertain nature of the cash flow projections, the valuation
remains sensitive to assumptions on discount rates, perpetuity
growth rates and long-term margins. An increase in the discount
rate from 15% to 20% would reduce the valuation to €5/share.
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