Full Year Results -3 -3-
19 Marzo 2009 - 8:01AM
UK Regulatory
documentation are completed in accordance with professional actuarial standards
appropriate to the jurisdictions where the business is written. The selected
assumptions reflect the actuaries' judgement based on historical data and
experience combined with information concerning current underwriting, economic,
judicial, regulatory and other influences on ultimate claim settlements.
Based on the actuarial indications, the Group selects and records a single point
estimate separately for each line of business for each underwriting year. The
single point reserve estimate is management's best estimate which the Group
considers to be one that has an equal likelihood of developing a redundancy or
deficiency as the loss experience matures. On a quarterly basis the Group
analyses and records its loss reserve estimates across over 400 detailed lines
of business which reflect class of business, geographic location, insurance
versus reinsurance, proportional versus non-proportional, and treaty versus
facultative exposures. In addition, a limited number of the Group's largest
contracts are reviewed individually.
During the loss settlement period, additional facts regarding claims are
reported. As this occurs it may be necessary to increase or decrease the unpaid
losses and loss expense reserves. The actual final liability may be
significantly different to prior estimates. The Group reviews additional
reported claim information on a monthly basis. Actual claim experience is
compared to that expected from the most recent actuarial reserve review to
highlight significant variances. A complete actuarial analysis by detailed line
of business including selection of single point estimates is completed
semi-annually and is reviewed by the Group's management.
Underwriting year table
+---------------+----------+----+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | Total |
| | and | | | | | | | |
| | prior | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| | $'000 | $'000 | $'000 | $'000 | $'000 | $'000 | $'000 | $'000 |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Gross | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Estimate of cumulative | | | | | | | |
| claims: | | | | | | | |
+-------------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| At end of | 3,022,313 | 367,605 | 386,762 | 590,359 | 821,724 | 1,092,870 | 630,215 | |
| underwriting | | | | | | | | |
| year | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| One year | 4,564,137 | 452,324 | 396,996 | 612,137 | 816,546 | 990,260 | 610,599 | |
| later | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Two years | 4,710,816 | 485,269 | 417,049 | 611,228 | 794,346 | 883,970 | 616,375 | |
| later | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Three years | 4,755,187 | 507,747 | 441,839 | 654,210 | 786,147 | 874,949 | 629,467 | |
| later | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Four years | 4,828,948 | 539,694 | 440,855 | 660,908 | 790,476 | 856,061 | | |
| later | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Five years | 4,874,927 | 550,212 | 459,255 | 655,037 | 763,564 | | | |
| later | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Six years | 4,883,595 | 563,532 | 467,672 | 652,421 | | | | |
| later | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Seven years | 4,893,658 | 560,023 | 468,770 | | | | | |
| later | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Eight years | 4,874,618 | 560,844 | | | | | | |
| later | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Nine years | 4,858,150 | | | | | | | |
| later | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Estimate of | 4,858,150 | 560,844 | 468,770 | 652,421 | 763,564 | 856,061 | 629,467 | 8,789,277 |
| cumulative | | | | | | | | |
| claims as at | | | | | | | | |
| 31 December | | | | | | | | |
| 2008 | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| Cumulative | (4,660,066) | (494,088) | (410,052) | (583,166) | (633,463) | (671,708) | (445,453) | (7,897,996) |
| payments at | | | | | | | | |
| 31 December | | | | | | | | |
| 2008 | | | | | | | | |
+---------------+---------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+--------------+-------------+---------------+
| | 198,084 | 66,756 | 58,718 | 69,255 | 130,101 | 184,353 | 184,014 | 891,281 |
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