- Strong discounts—as high as 30% off listed price—will drive
shoppers to “trade up” in categories such as electronics,
appliances and sporting goods, contributing over $2 billion in
incremental spend this season
- The 2024 holiday season is expected to be the most mobile of
all time, with a record $128.1 billion spent through mobile devices
at 53.2% share over desktop, while also propelling usage of Buy
Now, Pay Later services
- Consumers will discover and research products in new ways
this season, with influencers driving people to shop 10 times more
compared to social media overall and generative AI-powered chat
bots seeing a 100% increase in traffic to retail sites
Today, Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) released its online shopping forecast
for the 2024 holiday season, covering the period from Nov. 1
through Dec. 31, 2024. Based on Adobe Analytics data, the analysis
provides the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by
analyzing commerce transactions online, covering over 1 trillion
visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product
categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience Cloud,
relied upon by the majority of the top 100 internet retailers in
the U.S.* to deliver, measure and personalize shopping experiences
online.
This press release features multimedia. View
the full release here:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240925007732/en/
Spend by Year (Graphic: Business
Wire)
Record E-commerce Spend in the U.S.
Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $240.8 billion
this holiday shopping season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31), representing
8.4% growth year-over-year (YoY). In the 2023 season,
shoppers spent $221.8 billion online at 4.9% growth YoY. Shopping
on mobile devices is expected to hit a new milestone, contributing
a record $128.1 billion and growing 12.8% YoY. This would represent
a 53.2% share of online spend this season (versus desktop
shopping).
Cyber Week (the 5-day period including Thanksgiving, Black
Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $40.6 billion in
online spend, up 7.0% YoY and representing 16.9% of the overall
holiday season. Adobe expects Cyber Monday will remain the season’s
and year’s biggest shopping day, driving a record $13.2
billion in spend, up 6.1% YoY. Black Friday ($10.8
billion, up 9.9% YoY) and Thanksgiving Day ($6.1 billion,
up 8.7% YoY) are both expected to outpace Cyber Monday in
growth YoY, as consumers embrace earlier deals promoted by U.S.
retailers. In a survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers**, 71% say they plan
to shop online on Black Friday, with 70% saying they proactively
check for deals during Cyber Week.
“The holiday shopping season has been reshaped in recent years,
where consumers are making purchases earlier, driven by a stream of
discounts that has allowed shoppers to manage their budgets in
different ways,” says Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital
Insights. “These discounting patterns are driving material changes
in shopping behavior, with certain consumers now trading up to
goods that were previously higher-priced and propelling growth for
U.S. retailers.”
Price Sensitive Shoppers Enticed by Strong Discounts
Adobe anticipates major discounts this season—up to 30% off
listed prices—as retailers compete for consumer dollars. These
levels are on par with the 2023 season. Of the 18 categories
tracked by Adobe, discounts for electronics are expected to peak at
30% off listed price (vs. 31% in 2023) while discounts for toys are
set to hit 27% (vs. 28%). Record high discounts are expected for
TVs at 24% (vs. 23%) and sporting goods at 20% (vs. 18%). Other
categories with notable discounts include apparel at 23% (vs. 24%),
computers at 23% (vs. 24%), furniture at 19% (vs. 21%) and
appliances at 18% (vs. 18%).
Each season, discounting has been a reliable driver of consumer
demand and e-commerce growth for retailers. The effect has been
more pronounced in 2024 as consumers remain price sensitive, taking
advantage of big promotional events after a period of persistent
inflation. This year, Adobe’s data showed that for every 1%
decrease in price during promotional events (Prime Day, President’s
Day, Memorial Day and Labor Day), demand increased by 1.025%
compared to the year prior. This drove an incremental $305 million
in online spend. For the upcoming holiday season, Adobe expects the
strong consumer response to discounts will contribute an
incremental $2 billion to $3 billion in online spend—a figure
factored into the record $240.8 billion spend forecasted for
e-commerce.
Shoppers “Trading Up” for the Holiday Season
Prior to the holiday season, months of persistent inflation had
led shoppers to embrace cheaper goods across major e-commerce
categories. To conduct this analysis for each category tracked by
Adobe, prices were separated into four quartiles from the highest
to lowest prices. Shares of units sold in the most expensive and
least expensive quartiles were then tracked from April 2019 to
August 2024. Adobe found the share of the cheapest goods increased
significantly, up 46% across categories. Conversely, share of the
most expensive goods decreased by 47% in the same period.
The trend is expected to reverse for the upcoming holiday
season, where share of the most expensive goods is set to increase
by 19% compared to pre-season trends—driven in large part by
competitive discounts. This effect is particularly strong in
categories including sporting goods, where share of the most
expensive goods is expected to rise by a staggering 76%. Other
categories with the same trend include electronics (up 58%) and
appliances (up 40%). Adobe sees a more modest rise in apparel (up
3%) and toys (up 3%). Categories with a drop include
furniture/bedding (down 12%) and groceries (down 3%), as consumers
embrace lower-priced products.
Consumer Guide: Best Time to Shop
The deepest discounts are expected to hit during Cyber Week, the
best time to shop for bargain hunters. And across several
categories, the best deals are set to happen before the big Cyber
Monday event. Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 28) will be the best day to
shop for toys, appliances, furniture and sporting goods. On Black
Friday (Nov. 29), shoppers will see the deepest discounts for TVs.
The Saturday after (Nov. 30) will have the best deals for
computers. And Cyber Monday (Dec. 2) will be the best day to shop
for electronics and apparel—the two biggest categories in
e-commerce by revenue share.
Notably, consumers will see deals beginning in mid-October with
the Prime Day event expected to drive discounting across major U.S.
retailers, up to 16% off listed price. Discounts are set to ramp up
again beginning Nov. 1 and through Nov. 21, up to 18% off listed
price. This provides consumers some flexibility in managing their
budgets. Even after Cyber Week, discounts are expected to linger
through the month of December, up to 15% off listed price.
Social Influencers Driving Consumers to Shop
Across major marketing channels, paid search has remained the
top driver of retail sales (28% share of online revenue from Jan. 1
to Sept. 3, 2024) and is expected to grow by 1% to 3% during the
holiday season. The fastest growth is set to come from affiliates
and partners (17.2% share)—which includes social media
influencers—at 7% to 10%. This channel is also expected to outpace
retailer traffic from social media overall (nearly 5% share), where
growth is at 4% to 7%. In 2024, Adobe’s data showed that
influencers are converting shoppers (individuals making a purchase
after seeing influencer content) 10 times more than social
media overall. This is expected to hold strong during the holiday
season. In Adobe’s survey, 37% of GenZ respondents have purchased
something based on an influencer’s recommendation.
Additional Adobe Analytics Insights
- Top sellers expected this holiday season: Top toys
include Bluey Ultimate Lights and Sounds Playhouse, Slime kits,
Fisher-Price Little People, MGA's Miniverse, Descendants: The Rise
of Red toys and LEGO sets. Top gaming consoles include Sony
PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X and Nintendo Switch OLED. Top games
include Madden NFL 25, NBA 2k25, Diablo 4, Call of Duty: Black
Ops 6, Super Mario Party Jamboree, Valorant and World of
Warcraft: The War Within. Other top sellers this season are
expected to include iPhone 16, Google Pixel 9, Samsung Galaxy S24
Ultra, Bluetooth headphones, film/digital cameras, Oura Ring,
Kindle/E-readers and Ninja Creami.
- E-commerce categories driving growth: Over half of
online spend this holiday season is expected to be driven by
electronics ($55.1 billion, up 8.5% YoY), apparel ($43.9 billion,
up 5.8% YoY) and furniture/bedding ($28.4 billion, up 4.2% YoY).
Groceries remains a high-growth category, expected to drive $20.8
billion and up a notable 8.8% YoY, as well as cosmetics ($10.3
billion, up 7.3% YoY). Other notable growth categories this season
include toys ($8.1 billion, up 5.8% YoY) and sporting goods ($7.2
billion, up 5.5% YoY).
- Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL): The payment method is
expected to set new records this season, driving $18.5 billion in
online spend, up 11.4% YoY. Adobe expects BNPL to hit $9.5 billion
during the month of Nov. 2024, making it the largest month on
record; Cyber Monday is set to be BNPL’s largest day on record at
$993 million. BNPL is also predominantly driven by mobile shopping,
with its share of spend expected to hit a staggering 74% to 79%
(vs. desktop)—74.1% so far this year (Jan. 1 – Aug. 11, 2024). In
Adobe’s survey, 39% of millennials plan to use BNPL services this
season, followed by 38% of Gen Z. Most common reasons cited for
using BNPL include freeing up cash (per 22% of respondents) and the
ability to purchase something they couldn’t afford otherwise
(19%).
- Impact of Generative AI: In 2024 (Jan. 1 to Aug.
31, 2024), traffic to retail sites from generative AI-powered chat
bots has doubled. Direct referrals (consumers clicking on a link to
retail site) have also increased dramatically—8 times higher than
in 2023. Use of generative AI tools for shopping is expected to
rise this holiday season. Adobe’s survey shows that 7 in 10
consumers who have used generative AI for shopping believe it
enhances their experience, and 2 in 5 plan to use it for the
holidays. Additionally, 20% of respondents turn to generative AI to
find the best deals, followed by quickly finding specific items
online (19%) and getting brand recommendations (15%).
About Adobe
Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For
more information, visit www.adobe.com.
*Per the Digital Commerce 360 Top 500 report (2024) **Survey
fielded from Sept. 2 to 9, 2024
© 2024 Adobe. All rights reserved. Adobe and the Adobe logo are
either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe in the United
States and/or other countries. All other trademarks are the
property of their respective owners.
Disclaimer: The information and analysis in this release have
been prepared by Adobe Inc. for informational purposes only and may
contain statements about future events that could differ from
actual results. Adobe Inc. does not warrant that the material
contained herein is accurate or free of errors and has no
responsibility to update or revise information presented herein.
Adobe Inc. shall not be liable for any reliance upon the
information provided herein.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240925007732/en/
Public relations contact Kevin Fu Adobe kfu@adobe.com
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