Osmium Partners Considers AFCV Holdings’ $10.50 Offer for Answers.com Grossly Inadequate
16 Febbraio 2011 - 8:45PM
Business Wire
The following press release was included in Osmium Partners’ 13D
filing on February 16, 2011, and it expresses Osmium’s belief that
AFCV Holdings’ recent offer to acquire Answers Corporation (Nasdaq:
ANSW) is grossly inadequate:
Osmium believes that Answers.com’s business is materially
undervalued by the stock market as a going concern, and that AFCV
Holdings’ offer does not come close to representing fair value.
Point 1: Answers.com’s CEO and CSO recently made the following
public comments about the company’s exceptional growth, market
share gains, product enhancements, and expectations for imminent
margin improvement at the company.
- CEO Bob
Rosenschein stated on November 8, 2010, "We are confident that
Q4 2010 revenue will be materially better than Q3 2010 revenue, and
we expect that our 2011 revenue will also exhibit healthy growth
over 2010.”
- CEO Bob
Rosenschein stated on November 8, 2010, "We are also reaching
audience scale in a number of the most desirable and highest
monetizing advertising verticals, and our plan is to exploit this
potential in 2011."
- At a conference on January 13, 2011,
CSO Bruce Smith characterized Answers.com’s industry as a
“Large, important, & growing market”
and specifically highlighted that Answers.com has “gained
significant share over the last three years” with the fastest
growing US Domain from 2007-09 and with unique visitor growth
accelerating from the top 1500 to top the 50.
- CSO Bruce Smith stated on January 13,
2011, that growth in market share has led to the “2nd
most active user generated content answer
site.”
- CSO Bruce
Smith stated on January 13, 2011, “Direct ad sales effort will
capture significant monetization upside and better capitalize on
Answers.com highly sought after young
demographic” This effort will begin in the first
half of 2011.
- On November 8, 2010, CEO Bob
Rosenschein discussed the significant monetization opportunities
the company is about to embark on given the significant ramp up in
site traffic which will allow the company to hire a direct
advertising sales force. "Over the last
two years, from 3Q08 to 3Q10, our traffic has jumped 86%, and this
volume changes everything."
Point 2: According to data from wikianswers.com and recent
presentations from Answers.com, Wikianswers.com has recently been
adding approximately 1 million new answers every sixty days and has
seen its answers database grow from 2 million to 11.5 million
answers over the last three years. Additionally, the Wikianswers
site has just crossed the 6 millionth registered user mark. It is
very clear the business’s key monetization drivers are scaling
successfully and AFCV’s offer fails to capture this success.
Simply put, if Answers.com continues to add approximately 1
million answers every sixty days and revenue per thousand
impressions (RPM) improves modestly with current traffic trends,
within two years revenue should reach $50 million with very
significant margins. The enormous scalability of this business
model is illustrated in the 46% revenue growth and 378% adjusted
EBITDA growth (from $1.6 to $7.7mn) from 2008 to 2009, representing
a 94% incremental margin. AFCV’s offer fails to capture: a) current
growth trends and b) operating leverage in Answers.com business
model.
Long term shareholders like Osmium should
not be penalized by management’s failure at this juncture to
attract an appropriate shareholder base or Wall Street coverage, or
to attain an appropriate social media valuation.
Point 3: Osmium Partners believes that management has agreed to
sell at the worst possible time:
- Nearly two years ago on February 2,
2009, near the bottom of the financial crisis Answers.com’s stock
closed at $9.20 a share. In the two years since then, the NASDAQ,
Russell 2000, and Russell Microcap Index have returned on average
+79%, while Answers.com’s share price actually declined by 3% over
the same period. Said another way, if ANSW
performed in line with applicable market averages, ANSW’s share
price would have been $16.43 on February 2, 2011, not
$8.90.
2/2/2009 2/2/2011
%Change
NASDAQ $ 1,494.43 $ 2,749.56 84 % Russell 2000 $ 449.61 $
796.16 77 % IWC (Russell Microcap Index) $ 28.83 $
50.38 75 % Average 79 %
ANSW (Actual)
$ 9.20 $ 8.90 -3 % ANSW (Average Performance)
$ 9.20 $ 16.43 79 %
- In October 2010, we assumed that
management must have believed that their share price was
significantly undervalued because the company hired both a Public
Relations and Investor Relations firm to help the company gain more
attention from investors and presumably a higher share price.
Management stated its intention to utilize these firms after 4Q
2010 results were released. Those results are scheduled to be
released at the end of February.
- We are surprised that the board of
directors accepted AFCV’s offer when it did. Earnings for Q4 were
expected within three weeks of the announcement of the deal, and
AFCV and the insiders clearly know the results, which should be
consistent with the prior public statements of management. Plus,
the deal was announced only one week after the highly successful
IPO of competitor Demand Media (DMD), which has a current valuation
of 35x EBITDA. By contrast, AFCV’s deal
values the company at 12 times EV/EBITDA based on 2009
results when the company averaged approximately 4.5 million
answers, versus 11.5 million currently, an increase of 155%. While
2010 was a transition year given significant investments in the
business and short term/temporary monetization issues (per
management’s comments/actions), we believe the underlying earnings
power has increase materially.
- The company’s small market
capitalization in a highly attractive market segment has been
overlooked by sell side analysts, as the company has not a single
Wall Street Analyst writing research on the company, and this has
resulted in a depressed valuation.
Osmium Partners believes the offer by AFCV Holdings fails by a
wide margin to capture the intrinsic value of the business. We have
received numerous unsolicited calls from other shareholders who all
share in our outrage with the AFCV offer.
Given the difference between AFCV’s offer and our estimate of
fair value as a going concern, we intend to use all legal means to
protect our interests.
Sincerely,John H. LewisManaging Partner
Certain factual and statistical (both historical and projected)
industry and market data and other information contained herein was
obtained by Osmium Partners from independent, third-party sources
that it deems to be reliable. However, Osmium Partners has not
independently verified any of such data or other information, or
the reasonableness of the assumptions upon which such data and
other information was based, and there can be no assurance as to
the accuracy of such data and other information. Further, many of
the statements and assertions contained herein reflect the belief
of Osmium Partners, which belief may be based in whole or in part
on such data and other information. Osmium Partners recognizes that
there may be confidential or otherwise non-public information in
the possession of the companies discussed in this letter that could
lead these companies or others to disagree with Osmium Partners’
conclusions.
The analyses provided may include certain statements,
assumptions, estimates and projections prepared with respect to,
among other things, the historical and anticipated operating
performance of the companies. Such statements, assumptions,
estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Osmium
Partners concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject
to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and
contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative
purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to
the accuracy or completeness of such statements, assumptions,
estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials
herein. Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and
projected results contained herein. Osmium Partners disclaims any
obligation to update this letter.
Funds and separately managed accounts managed by Osmium Partners
own Answers.com common stock. Osmium Partners manages funds that
are in the business of actively trading - buying and selling -
securities and other financial instruments. Osmium Partners in the
future may change its investment position in Answers.com and
possibly increase, decrease, dispose of, or change the form of its
investment for any or no reason.
This letter should not be considered a recommendation to buy,
sell, or hold any investment. In addition, this letter is neither
an offer to purchase nor a solicitation of an offer to sell any
securities of Answers.com or any of the other companies mentioned
in this letter.
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