California Wildfires Expected to Produce Losses for Insurers Between $1.2 Billion and $1.6 Billion: Aon Impact Forecasting
26 Ottobre 2007 - 10:13PM
PR Newswire (US)
Increased housing growth in California likely to drive future
industry losses CHICAGO, Oct. 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- This
week's wildfires in California are expected to produce insured
losses between $1.2 billion and $1.6 billion, according to Impact
Forecasting LLC, a unit of Aon Corporation (NYSE:AOC). More than 80
percent of the losses are expected to occur from the Witch Creek
fire that merged with the Guejito and Poomacha fires. (Logo:
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO) "Our
analysis of housing trends in California have shown that growth in
the more fire-prone wildland-urban areas is greater than in
traditional urban regions," says Steven Jakubowski, chief operating
officer of Impact Forecasting. "Unfortunately, we are likely to see
more catastrophic events in the future as a result of the increased
housing growth." More than two dozen fires have burned from Santa
Barbara County to San Diego County, the largest of which is the
Witch Creek fire in San Diego County that forced the evacuation of
hundreds of thousands of people from their homes. The Witch Creek
fire was unusual in that it burned beyond historical bounds seen in
previous events and into densely populated areas, including Rancho
Bernardo, Poway and Rancho Santa Fe, after crossing a likely
firebreak at the I-15 interstate freeway. The magnitude of the
Witch Creek Fire demonstrates that commercial properties face
greater exposure than had been previously seen. "California was set
for a difficult year because of an extended drought that brought
moisture conditions in vegetation to troublingly low levels,"
Jakubowski said. "Indeed, California has already seen difficult
fires in Griffith Park, Catalina Island, and Lake Tahoe this year.
The drought combined with high temperatures, very low humidity, and
extreme wind gusts which at times reached hurricane strengths
combined to form a disastrous scenario." This week's catastrophe
follows other California losses including outbreaks in 2003, 1993,
and 1991. The fire siege in 2003 produced the Cedar and Old Fires,
resulting in losses in excess of $2 billion. While these
catastrophic losses are closely tied to extreme weather conditions
and recurring droughts throughout California, the explosion in the
growth of housing greatly affects likely future losses, as well.
Aon Re Global works with insurance and reinsurance company clients
to manage and mitigate risks of catastrophic events such as these.
About Aon Impact Forecasting is a center of excellence within Aon
Re Global, the world's leading and most preferred reinsurance
intermediary. Impact Forecasting produces catastrophe analysis and
modeling services. Models include hurricane wind and surge,
earthquake, tornado and hail, wildfire, and terrorism perils. Aon
Corporation (NYSE:AOC) is the leading global provider of risk
management services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, human
capital and management consulting, and specialty insurance
underwriting. Through its 43,000 professionals worldwide, Aon
readily delivers distinctive client value via innovative and
effective risk management and workforce productivity solutions. Our
industry-leading global resources, technical expertise and industry
knowledge are delivered locally through more than 500 offices in
more than 120 countries. Aon was ranked by A.M. Best as the number
one global insurance brokerage in 2007 based on brokerage revenues,
and voted best insurance intermediary, best reinsurance
intermediary, and best employee benefits consulting firm in 2007 by
the readers of Business Insurance. For more information on Aon, log
onto http://www.aon.com/. Media Contact Rahsaan Johnson
312.381.2684
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO
http://photoarchive.ap.org/ DATASOURCE: Aon Corporation CONTACT:
Rahsaan Johnson, +1-312-381-2684, , for Aon Corporation Web site:
http://www.aon.com/
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