Aon Study Finds Elevated Risk in Some of the World's Largest Economies
16 Gennaio 2008 - 3:00PM
PR Newswire (US)
CHICAGO, Jan. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- In 25 of the 50 largest
global economies*, multinational organizations face elevated
political and economic risks -- including business interruption
caused by war, terror attacks and political interference, according
to an analysis released today by Aon Trade Credit Global, a unit of
Aon Corporation (NYSE:AOC). (Logo:
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO) Among the
top 50 economies, the analysis found political and economic risk is
at its highest in the oil-rich nations of Iran, Nigeria and
Venezuela, where businesses face civil unrest, war, terrorism and
nonpayment by governments for services rendered. While the
likelihood of terror attacks, crippling regulatory changes or
strikes and civil unrest is relatively low in most of the world's
wealthiest nations, such risks are very real in the nations whose
economies are among the fastest growing. For example, companies
doing business in Russia face an increased degree of state control
in the natural resources sector. Additionally, the global risk
management community is increasingly concerned about supply chain
risks in Asia. "I have noted a significant increase in the number
of CEOs, CFOs and chief risk officers who are seeking a greater
understanding of how their businesses are at risk in an
increasingly complex global environment versus their primary risk
concerns 10 years ago," said Bryan Squibb, managing director of Aon
Trade Credit Global. "Risk is one of the fundamental drivers of the
global economy, and misunderstanding it can be fatal to a business.
As the global business landscape is constantly changing, the
Political and Economic Risk Map provides our clients with the
proper analytical tools to assess these contingencies and determine
how they may impact their sustainable growth, continuity and
profitability." The Global Credit Crunch Slowed global economic
growth -- particularly in the United States, where falling home
values and rising unemployment are contributing to fears the
world's largest economy will sink into recession this year -- will
directly impact the credit quality of companies, increasing their
risk of nonpayment of receivables. Some countries, particularly the
newer entrants to the global economy, are more likely to be
impacted by a global credit crunch. Some examples are Turkey,
Hungary and Romania. Aon's Global Credit Crunch Index -- a new
feature in the analysis measuring emerging markets' exposure to
international financial turmoil -- lists 25 nations for which
exposure to the global credit crunch is other than Low (i.e.
Medium-Low, Medium, Medium-High or High). The Largest and Fastest
Growing Economies While political and economic risks to companies
doing business in the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom
-- the world's largest, third largest and fifth largest economies,
respectively -- are comparatively low, companies doing business in
those countries are potentially more vulnerable to business
interruption due to terror attacks than those doing business in
Japan, the world's second largest economy. Risk in Brazil, Russia,
India, China, South Korea and Mexico is characterized as Medium-Low
or Medium. They are the only nations in the top 15 for which risk
is not characterized as Low. Observations for each follow: --
Drilling in an oil field off of Brazil's southeast coast could lead
to greater economic growth in the next five years and position the
nation as one of the leading oil exporters in South America. -- In
Russia, the economic and political situation is forecast to remain
steady through the presidential elections in March 2008 and beyond.
-- Discussion of the nationalization of certain industries in
regions of India should not contribute to a widening of political
and economic risk in 2008. -- In China, continued economic growth
could lead to a widening of the economic disparity between rich and
poor, which in turn could lead to a slight rise in political unrest
in 2008. -- Continued stable relations between Seoul, Tokyo and
Washington are expected as new President Lee Myung Bak takes office
in February 2008. -- Despite record revenues of US$100 billion in
2007, Mexico's state owned oil company recently reported a decline
in output, exports and proven reserves. Oil Most of the world's oil
reserves are held by government-controlled oil companies. As the
global demand for oil continues to grow in 2008, most of the demand
will continue to be met by state-owned companies in nations with
elevated levels of political and economic risk. About the 2008
Political & Economic Risk Map Aon ranked the political and
economic risk of 209 countries and territories, measuring risk of
currency inconvertibility and transfer; strikes, riots and civil
commotion; war; terrorism; sovereign non-payment; political
interference; supply chain interruption; legal and regulatory risk.
The risk in each country was ranked as Low, Medium-Low, Medium,
Medium-High or High. A country with an "elevated" risk is defined
as any country with a risk ranked at Medium-Low, Medium,
Medium-High or High. The results of the analysis are detailed on
the 2008 Political & Economic Risk Map, produced by Aon Trade
Credit in partnership with Oxford Analytica, an international
consulting firm. Oxford Analytica draws its analysis from a global
network of more than 1,000 experts -- including senior faculty
members at Oxford University and at major research institutions
worldwide -- to make independent judgments about geopolitical risk.
The Political & Economic Risk Map is published annually by Aon
Trade Credit Global, a unit of Aon Corporation. With more than 400
specialists in 60 offices around the world, Aon has been providing
political risk and trade credit insurance and consulting services
such as country audits, since 1912. About Aon Aon Corporation
(NYSE:AOC) is the leading global provider of risk management
services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, human capital and
management consulting, and specialty insurance underwriting.
Through its 43,000 professionals worldwide, Aon readily delivers
distinctive client value via innovative and effective risk
management and workforce productivity solutions. Our
industry-leading global resources, technical expertise and industry
knowledge are delivered locally through more than 500 offices in
more than 120 countries. Aon was ranked by A.M. Best as the number
one global insurance brokerage in 2007 based on brokerage revenues,
and voted best insurance intermediary, best reinsurance
intermediary, and best employee benefits consulting firm in 2007 by
the readers of Business Insurance. For more information on Aon, log
onto http://www.aon.com/. Note to Editors A video presentation of
the launch of the 2008 Political & Economic Risk Map will be
available Jan. 17 at http://aon.mediaroom.com/. *Countries among
the 50 Largest Economies with Elevated Political & Economic
Risk Ranking Country (Risk Level) 4 China (Medium) 10 Brazil
(Medium-Low) 11 Russian Federation (Medium) 12 India (Medium) 13
South Korea (Medium-Low) 14 Mexico (Medium) 17 Turkey (Medium) 21
Indonesia (Medium-High) 22 Poland (Medium-Low) 25 Saudi Arabia
(Medium-High) 27 South Africa (Medium) 29 Iran (High) 31 Argentina
(Medium-High) 33 Thailand (Medium) 36 Venezuela (High) 37 Malaysia
(Medium-Low) 40 Colombia (Medium-High) 42 United Arab Emirates
(Medium-Low) 43 Pakistan (High) 44 Israel (Medium-Low) 45 Romania
(Medium-Low) 46 Philippines (Medium) 47 Algeria (Medium) 48 Nigeria
(High) 50 Egypt (Medium) Media Contacts: Chicago London Rahsaan
Johnson Reuben Aitchison 1.312.381.2684/ +44 (0) 207 086 7201
1.312.391.7506 Rotterdam Johannesburg Sietse Pots Liza Kok +31 (0)
10 4487522 +27 (0) 11 380 9205
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO
http://photoarchive.ap.org/ DATASOURCE: Aon Corporation CONTACT:
Rahsaan Johnson, +1-312-381-2684, +1-312-391-7506, , or Reuben
Aitchison, +44 0 207 086 7201, , or Sietse Pots, +31 0 10 4487522,
, or Liza Kok, +27 0 11 380 9205, , all of Aon Corporation Web
site: http://www.aon.com/
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