Oil Majors Face Increased Political Risk From State Intervention: Aon Analysis
12 Febbraio 2008 - 7:45PM
PR Newswire (US)
Global oil supplies under threat LONDON, Feb. 12
/PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Oil multinationals face increased
political and economic risks as governments readdress the balance
of power by taking more control over their domestic product,
according to Aon's Political and Economic Risk Map 2008. The report
found that countries such as Venezuela and Uzbekistan pose a high
risk for companies with potential problems such as confiscation,
sovereign non-payment and political interference. These political
risks could threaten global oil supplies and push record oil prices
even further. (Logo:
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO) This is
evidenced in yesterday's threat by Venezuela to cut off the US oil
sales after one of the world's four largest oil companies won
international court orders freezing up to $12bn in assets of state
oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). Also, the Chinese
government diverted coal exports back to coastal towns during the
New Year winter storms. Governments with state-owned oil companies
have benefited and learnt from the technology, expertise and
training from the oil multinationals that originally invested in
exploration and production. Now, along with the increasing price of
oil and by accruing tax and royalties, these governments have
asserted themselves to bring the domestic product into their
control through varying degrees of nationalisation. The drivers for
state control vary from left wing politics, as evidenced in South
American countries such as Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia, to
capitalist economics. As most of the world's oil reserves are today
held by government-controlled oil companies -- approximately 90%
compared to 30% in 1978 (Source: Hydrocarbon Highway) --
multinationals are now dealing with nations with elevated levels of
political and economic risk to meet increasing global demand. For
example: Country Risk rating Country Risk rating Venezuela HIGH
Russia MEDIUM Uzbekistan HIGH Saudi Arabia MEDIUM Bolivia HIGH Iran
HIGH Simon Lazarus, executive director of Aon's Natural Resources
& Construction Division commented: "A number of oil
multinationals are facing serious challenges as governments take
greater control over their resources. Not only are we seeing an
increase in risk across a number of oil producing countries, but
the supply situation could potentially worsen in some regions. This
is evidenced by the current "gas squeeze" in the European sector,
as well as certain parts of Latin America where there is a serious
lack of state investment to keep oil fields productive and to
finance expansions into new areas." Miles Johnstone, director of
political risk at Aon Crisis Management, added: "This week alone we
have seen Venezuela again threatening to cut off oil supplies to
the US. This comes at a time when the main oil producing and
refining region in Nigeria continues to suffer from high levels of
political violence, kidnappings and general civil unrest, and
tensions between the US/UN and Iran over its nuclear programme are
ongoing. These factors indicate potential for serious disruption to
the operations of key oil producers as well as to established oil
transportation routes which could well lead to further spikes in
the price of oil. "It is crucial for energy companies to understand
the nature and extent of these kinds of political threats to their
operations and to take appropriate action to mitigate these risks.
One way of doing this is by reviewing and strengthening their
concession contracts or production sharing agreements; another is
through insurance cover, for example." For more information
contact: Alexandra Lewis 0207 882 0541 Rahsaan Johnson 312.381.2684
About Aon Aon Corporation (NYSE:AOC) is the leading global provider
of risk management services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage,
human capital and management consulting, and specialty insurance
underwriting. Through its 43,000 professionals worldwide, Aon
readily delivers distinctive client value via innovative and
effective risk management and workforce productivity solutions. Our
industry-leading global resources, technical expertise and industry
knowledge are delivered locally through more than 500 offices in
more than 120 countries. Aon was ranked by A.M. Best as the number
one global insurance brokerage in 2007 based on brokerage revenues,
and voted best insurance intermediary, best reinsurance
intermediary, and best employee benefits consulting firm in 2007 by
the readers of Business Insurance. For more information on Aon, log
onto http://www.aon.com/.
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO
http://photoarchive.ap.org/ DATASOURCE: Aon Corporation CONTACT:
Alexandra Lewis, +0207 882 0541, , or Rahsaan Johnson,
+1-312-381-2684, , both of Aon Corporation Web site:
http://www.aon.com/
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