Seasonal U.S. Hurricane Forecast Accuracy Varies, Multi-Year Views More in Line With Actual Activity: Aon Re Study
02 Aprile 2008 - 6:15PM
PR Newswire (US)
Atlantic hurricane season forecasters' cumulative predictions over
five years more accurate than one-year predictions CHICAGO, April
2, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- As leading hurricane season
forecasting organizations begin issuing updated tropical season
forecasts for the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season, an analysis by
Impact Forecasting LLC, a unit of Aon Re Global, found seasonal
outlooks for individual years are generally less accurate than when
those individual forecasts are measured cumulatively against actual
hurricane activity over periods of five years or longer. (Logo:
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO) The
finding demonstrates the difficulty of seasonal hurricane
forecasting and further stresses the importance of insurers,
reinsurers and risk managers taking a longer term view of climatic
activity. According to Impact Forecasting's analysis, tropical
season predictions released in May 2007 and 2006 by top hurricane
researchers at Colorado State University (CSU), the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Tropical Storm
Risk (TSR) overestimated the number of hurricanes and major
hurricanes (hurricanes that achieve or exceed Category 3 status on
the Saffir-Simpson Scale) that ultimately would form in the
Atlantic and Caribbean oceans. The discrepancies between forecasted
activity and actual activity have been attributed to the
unanticipated levels of dust and dry air that settled across the
region of the Atlantic Ocean where tropical systems and hurricanes
tend to develop. 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts
(May-issued forecasts) Actual 2007 Forecast 25-year CSU NOAA TSR
Season Parameter Average Forecast Forecast Forecast Total Named
Storms 11.0 17 13-17 16 15 Hurricanes 6.4 9 7-10 9 6 Major
Hurricanes 1.2 5 3-5 4 2 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts
(May-issued forecasts) Actual 2006 Forecast 25-year CSU NOAA TSR
Season Parameter Average Forecast Forecast Forecast Total Named
Storms 11.0 17 13-16 14 9 Hurricanes 6.4 9 8-10 8 4 Major
Hurricanes 1.2 5 4-6 3 2 "Hurricane season forecasting, which is
still a relatively new practice, is difficult due to the complex
and dynamic nature of the atmosphere," said Steve Drews, Impact
Forecasting associate vice president and lead meteorologist. "These
forecasts are built on existing theories about how the atmosphere
should respond in certain scenarios, but the outcomes aren't always
what is expected. As a result, researchers refine their forecasting
techniques every year as new data and discoveries surface." When
analyzing five years of forecasts for named storms, hurricanes and
major hurricanes, Impact Forecasting found the forecasts have been
quite accurate when compared to average season values. 2003-2007
Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts (May-issued forecasts)
2003-2007 Expectation Based on Actual Forecast Historical CSU NOAA
TSR 2003-2007 Parameter Averages Forecasts Forecasts Forecasts
Total Named Storms 55 77 61-78 68 81 Hurricanes 32 42 34-46 38 41
Major Hurricanes 6 20 14-24 16 20 Steve Jakubowski, Impact
Forecasting's executive vice president and chief operating officer,
added: "The current forecasting uncertainty within these seasonal
hurricane predictions shows that insurers need to have confidence
that they are prepared and have a clear understanding of their
exposures, not only through accurate and careful policy planning
but also through robust catastrophe modeling." The analysis,
contained within Aon Re Global's 2007 Annual Global Climate and
Catastrophe Report, utilized May forecasts for the Atlantic
Hurricane Season issued by Colorado State University, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and TropicalStormRisk.com
since 2003. These forecasts were compared to what occurred across
the Atlantic and Caribbean basins during single years and within a
five-year period. The Aon Re Global 2007 Annual Global Climate and
Catastrophe Report is available for download at:
http://aon.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=63&item=191. Updated
forecasts from two of these units will be issued in the coming
days. Colorado State University researchers Dr. Philip Klotzbach
and Dr. William Gray will be discussing their upcoming forecast to
attendees of the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando this
week, while Tropical Storm Risk researchers Professor Mark Saunders
and Dr. Adam Lea will be releasing their updated 2008 Atlantic
Hurricane Forecast on April 7. NOAA typically issues its Atlantic
Hurricane Season forecasts between the middle and end of May. About
Aon Impact Forecasting is a center of excellence within Aon Re
Global, the world's leading and most preferred reinsurance
intermediary. Impact Forecasting produces catastrophe analysis and
modeling services. Models include hurricane wind and surge,
earthquake, tornado and hail, wildfire, and terrorism perils. Aon
Re Global, the world's leading and most preferred reinsurance
intermediary, provides clients with integrated capital solutions
and services through a world-class network of experts in more than
35 countries. Clients are better able to differentiate and meet
their business objectives with Aon Re Global's best-in-class treaty
and facultative reinsurance placement services, capital markets
expertise, and relevant analytics and technical expertise,
including catastrophe management, actuarial, and rating agency
counsel. Aon Re Global was named best reinsurance broker in 2007
and 2006 by readers of Business Insurance, in 2007 by readers of US
Insurer and in 2006 by readers of Reinsurance. Aon Corporation
(NYSE:AOC) is the leading global provider of risk management
services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, human capital and
management consulting, and specialty insurance underwriting.
Through its 43,000 professionals worldwide, Aon readily delivers
distinctive client value via innovative and effective risk
management and workforce productivity solutions. Our
industry-leading global resources, technical expertise and industry
knowledge are delivered locally through more than 500 offices in
more than 120 countries. Aon was ranked by A.M. Best as the number
one global insurance brokerage in 2007 based on brokerage revenues,
and voted best insurance intermediary, best reinsurance
intermediary, and best employee benefits consulting firm in 2007 by
the readers of Business Insurance. For more information on Aon, log
onto http://www.aon.com/. Media Contacts Rahsaan Johnson David
Prosperi 312.381.2684 312.381.2485
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO
http://photoarchive.ap.org/ DATASOURCE: Aon Corporation CONTACT:
Rahsaan Johnson, +1-312-381-2684, , or David Prosperi,
+1-312-381-2485, , both of Aon Corporation Web site:
http://www.aon.com/
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