Aon Political Risk Map: Political Stability Next Victim of Credit Crunch
28 Gennaio 2009 - 4:00PM
PR Newswire (US)
Iceland and Greece serve as early warnings LONDON and NEW YORK,
Jan. 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- 2009 will see the political
consequences of the global credit crunch start to have an impact,
according to the 16th annual Political Risk Map, launched today by
Aon Risk Services, a division of Aon Corporation. (Logo:
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO) In a
global webcast, Aon's political risk and trade credit experts
discussed how the economic instability caused by the credit crunch
was having a flow-on effect on political stability. Miles
Johnstone, director of Aon's Political Risk team, explained: "This
year's map reflects how the impact of the credit crunch is shifting
from being an economic problem to a political problem. When an
economy is in downturn, the government has less resource available
to deal with issues when they arise, potentially leading to
political instability. "We are seeing this particularly in several
Eastern European countries, as well as Iceland and Greece, where
there is a rise in exchange transfer and sovereign non-payment risk
as well as an increase in widespread protests and street
disturbances." The emergence of Very High Risk nations The past
year has seen a number of High Risk countries continue to
deteriorate to the point where Aon believes the gap between seven
countries -- Afghanistan, Congo DRC, Iran, Iraq, North Korea,
Somalia and Zimbabwe -- and other High Risk countries warranted the
creation of a Very High Risk category. Miles commented: "The level
of risk in these countries just continued to get worse. It has
reached the point where although we have been able to secure
insurance cover for some clients in some of these territories, it
is not always available." The Commodity Crunch This year's map
includes a Commodity Crunch Exposure Matrix, which identifies the
countries most vulnerable to political instability in 2009 if
commodity prices continue to fall, as has been suggested by some
forecasters. "Volatility in global commodity prices in the 1970s
and early 1980s contributed to political and economic instability
in a number of countries," according to Roger Schwartz, senior vice
president of Aon Trade Credit. "Countries that recently benefited
from very high commodity prices may suffer as they fall. The types
of commodities we are talking about include oils, metals and
minerals. "Interestingly, the resource nationalism prevalent last
year when commodity prices were rising continues, despite the fact
prices are now firmly on a downward trend." A move to the middle A
reflection of the general rise in the risk level globally, the past
year has been notable for a significant shift from the Low Risk
category to the Medium-Low category. Six Eastern European
countries, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and
Slovenia, as well as Greece and Iceland, received a downgrade. On
the other hand, four High Risk countries, Malawi, Moldova, Syria
and Turkmenistan, saw an improvement in their status to Medium-High
Risk. Movements on the 2009 map: Thirteen countries have been
upgraded to a lower risk level: Algeria, Benin, Cameroon, Colombia,
Kuwait, Lesotho, Libya, Malawi, Moldova, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia
and Turkmenistan. Eighteen countries have been downgraded to a
higher risk level: Afghanistan, Congo DRC, Estonia, Greece,
Hungary, Iceland, Iran, Iraq, Latvia, Lithuania, Malaysia,
Mauritania, North Korea, Slovakia, Slovenia, Somalia, Thailand and
Zimbabwe. Miles concluded: "It is an uncertain future for many
companies and many sectors. Just how some of these issues, such as
the commodity crunch, will play out is unclear. We have seen a
significant increase in enquiries over the past year from companies
seeking political risk cover. It remains to be seen how and to what
extent demand for cover is affected by the ongoing impact of the
credit crunch on global trade and investment. "As the global
business landscape continues to change, the Political Risk Map
provides our clients with the proper analytical tools to assess the
various contingencies and determine how they may impact their
sustainable growth, continuity and profitability." Media Contacts:
UK US Reuben Aitchison Kelly Drinkwine +44 (0)20 7086 7201 +1 312
381 2684 http://aon.mediaroom.com/ http://aon.mediaroom.com/ About
the 2009 Political Risk Map Aon ranked the political risk of 209
countries and territories, measuring risk of currency
inconvertibility and transfer; strikes, riots and civil commotion;
war; terrorism; sovereign non-payment; political interference;
supply chain interruption; legal and regulatory risk. The risk in
each country was ranked as Low, Medium-Low, Medium, Medium-High,
High or Very High. A country with an "elevated" risk is defined as
any country with a risk ranked at Medium-Low, Medium, Medium-High,
High or Very High. The results of the analysis are detailed on the
2009 Political Risk Map, produced by Aon Risk Services in
partnership with Oxford Analytica, an international consulting
firm. Oxford Analytica draws its analysis from a global network of
more than 1,000 experts -- including senior faculty members at
Oxford University and at major research institutions worldwide --
to make independent judgments about geopolitical risk. The
Political Risk Map is published annually by Aon Risk Services, a
unit of Aon Corporation. With more than 400 specialists in 60
offices around the world, Aon has been providing political risk and
trade credit insurance and consulting services, such as country
audits, since 1912. For more information, visit
http://www.aon.com/2009politicalmap. About Aon Aon Corporation
(NYSE:AOC) is the leading global provider of risk management
services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, and human capital
consulting. Through its more than 36,000 colleagues worldwide, Aon
readily delivers distinctive client value via innovative and
effective risk management and workforce productivity solutions. Our
industry-leading global resources, technical expertise and industry
knowledge are delivered locally through more than 500 offices in
more than 120 countries. Aon was named the world's best broker by
Euromoney magazine's 2008 Insurance Survey. In 2008, Aon ranked
highest on the Business Insurance ranking of the world's largest
insurance brokers based on commercial retail, wholesale,
reinsurance and personal lines brokerage revenues. Aon also was
ranked by A.M. Best as the number one insurance broker based on
brokerage revenues in 2007 and 2008, and was voted best insurance
intermediary, best reinsurance intermediary, and best employee
benefits consulting firm in 2007 and 2008 by the readers of
Business Insurance. Sign up to receive Aon news alerts by email or
RSS feed at: http://aon.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=58. Safe Harbour
Statement: http://aon.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=67 Aon Limited is
authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in
respect of insurance mediation activities only.
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO
http://photoarchive.ap.org/ DATASOURCE: Aon Corporation CONTACT:
UK, Reuben Aitchison, +44 (0)20 7086 7201, , or US, Kelly
Drinkwine, +1-312-381-2684, , both of Aon Corporation Web site:
http://www.aon.com/
Copyright
Grafico Azioni AON (NYSE:AOC)
Storico
Da Giu 2024 a Lug 2024
Grafico Azioni AON (NYSE:AOC)
Storico
Da Lug 2023 a Lug 2024