- CoreLogic Home Price Index reached highest annual gain since
2013 in January at 10%
- Affordability and low supply remain top challenges for
consumers in purchasing a home
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information,
analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the
CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for January
2021.
This press release features multimedia. View
the full release here:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210302005309/en/
CoreLogic National Home Price Change and
Forecast; January 2021 (Graphic: Business Wire)
2020 was a landmark year for the housing market. Factors such as
record-low mortgage rates encouraged first-time homebuyers to dip
their toe into the housing market and allowed home price growth to
remain strong, despite economic uncertainty. The momentum continued
into 2021, with home price growth experiencing its first
double-digit annual appreciation since November 2013 in January at
10%. However, as we look forward to the rest of 2021, we may expect
to see challenges for some prospective homeowners.
A survey from CoreLogic, conducted in February 2021, found that
nearly 76% of U.S. non-homeowners, aged 18 or older, say that they
have no plans to purchase a home within the next six months. When
asked what was the biggest deterrent, 43% of respondents cited
affordability constraints — specifically, not having enough money
for a down payment or mortgage — which could be an additional
factor keeping them from purchasing.
“Record-low mortgage rates were a significant driving force
behind last year’s rebound in housing market activity,” said Frank
Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “However, heavy
competition for the few houses on the market drove home prices to
historic highs, and mortgage rates are no longer enough to sway the
affordability challenges for consumers. While new construction may
help balance home prices towards the end of 2021, we may expect to
see demand slow in the medium-term.”
Top Takeaways:
- Nationally, home prices increased 10% in January 2021, compared
with January 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices
increased by 0.9% compared to December 2020.
- January 2021 gains across all of the 10 select metropolitan
areas (Table 1) surpassed their January 2020 levels.
- Metro areas where affordability constraints are prevalent
continue to persist as prices rise. For instance, in January, home
prices in San Diego increased 11% year over year and are forecasted
to increase an additional 9.6% over the next 12 months.
- At the state level, Idaho and Montana had the strongest price
growth in January, up 21%, 17.4%, respectively, while Maine and
Indiana tied for third place at 15.3% growth each.
“Despite first-time buyers driving high demand, entry-level
homes remain in short supply,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief
economist at CoreLogic. “Homes priced below 75% of the local median
price had 14% annual appreciation, negating most of the benefits of
record-low mortgage rates. When interest rates rise, the
affordability squeeze for first-time buyers will become even more
of a challenge.”
The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring February 2021
data, will be issued on April 6, 2021 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on
industry-leading public record, servicing and securities
real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of
repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an
average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an
early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the
“Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive
set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached
and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully
revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning
points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple
market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type,
price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs.
non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is
available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including
non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based
on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines
the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income
per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum,
mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the
unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI
Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers —
“Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and
“Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion
to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with
Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios
to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and
severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP
Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical
confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the
index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics
solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of
housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists
combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing
data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in
392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a
multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score
(from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a
>10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the
score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
About the Market Condition Indicators
As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market
Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and
identify individual markets as “overvalued”, “at value”, or
“undervalued.” These indicators are derived from the long-term
fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income
per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home
price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10%,
and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels
by greater than 10%.
About the CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Survey
In February 2021, 3,699 adults in the U.S., with an estimated
1,020 non-homeowners and 2,679 current homeowners, were surveyed by
CoreLogic through survey platform YouGov. The survey provides a
pulse on U.S. housing market dynamics and purchase intentions.
Fieldwork was undertaken between February 16-22, 2021. The survey
was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are
representative of all US adults (aged 18+).
Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or
the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not
be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including
publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent
company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any
CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in
part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and
analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the
citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If
the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual
elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website.
For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact
Valerie Sheets at newsmedia@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be
modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not
use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from
public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics,
and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property
insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and
thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions,
services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate
professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers,
government agencies and other housing market participants to help
millions of people find, buy and protect their homes. For more
information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI
Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
All other trademarks are the property of their respective
owners.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210302005309/en/
Valerie Sheets newsmedia@corelogic.com
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