UPDATE:For Apartment Operators,Boomeranging Kids More Bad News
24 Novembre 2009 - 7:58PM
Dow Jones News
With many Americans boomeranging back to Mom and Dad's or
sharing digs with roommates, the nation's apartment operators,
particularly the public players, continue to bite their nails as
they await recovery.
The Pew Research Center reports that 1 in 10 adults ages 18 to
35, prime renting years, say the weak economy has forced them to
return to the nest. Reasons range from job loss to pursuing an
education.
The news, which quantifies longstanding concerns, weighed on the
multifamily real estate investment trust sector Tuesday. Apartment
Investment & Management Co. (AIV) recently traded down 5.1% at
$12.91, while Colonial Properties Trust (CLP) declined 2.6% to
$11.01. Upscale operator Post Properties Inc. (PPS) was off 4% at
$18.04. Sector titan Equity Residential (EQR) dipped 1.5% to
$31.59.
For apartment operators, it doesn't matter why older children
are returning home. It just matters that they are. That means more
empty apartments--the vacancy rate is at its highest level in 23
years--with price cuts needed to fill them. Frantic landlords are
offering incentives ranging from rent reductions to flat-screen
televisions to attract tenants. New tenants might not even have to
pay security or pet deposits. More landlords are overlooking
foreclosures on credit reports, once a possible dealbreaker.
Census data, meanwhile, show that 7.3% of adults ages 18 to 29
were living alone in 2009, down from 7.9% in 2007. With so many
seeking roomies to shave bills, one-bedroom units in some areas are
plentiful.
"It's going to drive up vacancy if you have two people taking
one apartment, instead of two taking two apartments," said Peggy
Abkemeier, president of Rent.com, a rental Web site. "If you look
at the breakdown of vacancy rates by type of apartment,
one-bedrooms are disproportionately higher."
Another problem? Household formation: Growing families are
essential to filling units. Pew reports that 15% of adults younger
than 35 said they postponed getting married because of the
downturn, while 14% said they have delayed adding to their families
by having a baby.
When the mom-and-pops shave rents, few notice. But recent trends
have Wall Street particularly worried. Rent reductions, giveaways
and empty units hurt the bottom line, trickling down to
shareholders. Few expect imminent relief.
"Absent household formation, landlords will likely be unable to
raise rents in a meaningful way anytime soon," writes Michael Levy,
an analyst with Macquarie Securities. "For this reason, we are
skeptical that the apartment REIT sector will be able to generate
robustly positive same-store revenue and NOI [net operating income]
before 2012. Weak job creation could limit REITs ability to raise
rents during the 2010 leasing season, crimping growth in 2011."
-By Dawn Wotapka, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2193;
dawn.wotapka@dowjones.com
(Conor Dougherty contributed to this article.)
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