By Chiara Albanese, Katie Martin and Laurence Fletcher
Even veteran currency traders who have seen it all were
stunned.
The Swiss National Bank's surprise decision on Thursday to stop
reining in the value of the Swiss franc prompted an extraordinary
move in the currencies market, one bigger than any that traders
could remember. The franc soared 23% against the euro and 21%
versus the dollar, as automated trading systems jammed and
investors across the globe nursed losses.
It was a demonstration of the power that central banks hold over
markets but also underscored the difficulty central banks have
protecting their economies from developments beyond their
borders.
Switzerland had sought to keep the franc weak to protect its
exporters, as a weaker currency makes a country's products sold
abroad less expensive. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is
poised to announce a bond-buying program that would weaken the
euro. The Swiss, in a race they probably couldn't win, appeared to
give up.
Swiss private bank Julius Baer Group AG was holding a board
meeting when news broke shortly after 10:30 a.m. in Zurich. The
bankers paused the meeting to be sure it wasn't a hoax. The central
bank had defended its cap vigorously for the past 3 1/2 years--at
1.20 francs to the euro--and had assured investors, as recently as
Dec. 18, that it was there to stay.
Bank executives hurriedly arranged a conference call with
clients. Thousands dialed in, said Burkhard Varnholt, chief
investment officer at the bank. "It was a shock and caused a lot of
questions."
Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said any clues in
advance from the central bank could have prompted improper
trading.
Within minutes of the central bank's announcement, the franc
jumped by about a third against the euro. Mark Astley, chief
executive of Millennium Global in London, which manages $14 billion
in currency funds, was hosting a breakfast seminar. He reached for
his mobile phone to check rates. "The euro is trading below one!"
he shouted. Never in history had the euro and franc reached
parity.
Late Thursday in New York, the franc was at 1.0245 to the euro,
while the dollar bought 0.8391 francs, from 0.9815 francs
Wednesday.
For a time Thursday, the franc was almost untradable said Tony
Botting, head of spot foreign-exchange trading at Crédit Agricole
SA. Saxo Bank told clients in an email that it was filling orders
in an "extremely illiquid environment" and would have to revisit
trades. Autobahn, a trading platform operated by Deutsche Bank AG,
the second-largest currencies-dealing bank in the world, at one
point stopped displaying prices, according to a person familiar
with the matter.
The move reverberated around markets. The euro also slumped
against the dollar, at one point dipping below $1.16 to its lowest
point since November 2013. The euro finished at $1.1633, down 1.3%
on the day. Switzerland's SMI stock index closed down 8.7%. The
worst performer in the index was watchmaker Swatch Group AG, which
declined 16%.
The moves in the franc were likely exacerbated by the fact that
before the announcement investors had held outsize positions that
the franc would fall against the U.S. dollar. The most recent data,
as of Jan. 6, from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
show a $2.6 billion net short position--or wagers the franc would
decline--on the Swiss currency against the U.S. dollar. That
position was close to the biggest wager against the franc since the
Swiss National Bank introduced the limit. Those bets represent a
tiny slice of the market but are also taken as a reasonable proxy
for speculative trading as a whole.
The central bank "really hammered us all today," said a top
executive at a big asset-management firm.
Among the losers were computer-driven hedge funds that rely on
algorithms to make investment decisions. As a group, these funds
posted one of the best returns of any hedge-fund strategy last
year.
Chris Cruden, chief executive of Insch Capital Management in
Switzerland, said his computer-driven currency fund had bet against
the franc versus the euro and had been up 4% this month. Thursday's
losses wiped out almost all those gains, he said. "Some people will
be really, really badly hurt," Mr. Cruden said. "It's going to be
bloody for some."
Some computer-driven funds are likely to have been holding
wagers against the franc for some time.
Broker Newedge's Trend Indicator, a model portfolio that
replicates the bets that these computer funds may put on, has been
short the franc for more than 200 days up to the end of last
year.
London-based Solaise Capital Management LLP's Systematic
Programme fund, which gained 12% last year, fell 1% on Thursday. A
short bet on the franc was its worst-performing position. "It's
definitely hit our [results] today," said Chief Operating Officer
James Walker. "But it's one thing out of 100 that we trade."
Some managers were able to take advantage. One fund said it had
bought the euro against the franc after the worst of the selloff
and sold the position a few hours later when the euro rose.
A few may also have benefited from holding options on a stronger
franc; they were cheap to buy, because most investors believed the
central bank would hold the cap.
"Our feeling is that a few [macro funds] have probably done
well," said Michele Gesualdi, chief investment officer of
multimanager funds at Kairos Investment Management Ltd. "It was
very low cost and very low risk."
Still, many were caught off guard. IG Group PLC, a London-based
broker catering mostly to individual investors, said it was facing
a negative impact of up to GBP30 million ($45.7 million) after the
"sudden and extreme movement" in the franc.
Few are confident where the rate will settle but most expect a
calmer day in the office Friday.
"The market was struggling...for some time," said Mr. Botting at
Crédit Agricole. "Now [that] the dust has settled, the main
question on everyone's mind is: Where to now?"
Tommy Stubbington, Anuj Gangahar, Christopher Whittall, Juliet
Samuel and Duncan Mavin contributed to this article.
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