By V. Phani Kumar
Analysts say China's rising property prices will soon begin
easing, not just because of a much-discussed slowdown in bank
lending, but because of a rush of new supply from government land
auctions.
"Compared to the 2006, 2007 and 2008 levels, the amount of land
in the market in 2009 looks significant -- a supply avalanche
indeed," Nomura International analyst Wee Liat Lee and Alan Jin
wrote in a report released Friday.
"Historically, when land purchase grows in the high double-digit
rates, growth in property prices also moderate into the
single-digit levels. We expect this to happen into 2010," they
said.
Property prices in several Chinese cities have risen quite
sharply this year because of lower interest rates and a boom in
bank lending, which in turn led to a sharp rally in shares of
mainland Chinese property companies traded in Hong Kong, Shanghai
and Shenzhen.
Many of them -- including China Overseas Land & Investment ,
Country Garden Holdings Co. , Guangzhou R&F Properties ,
Beijing North Star , Poly Real Estate Group and China Vanke (CVKEY)
-- have at least doubled from their 52-week lows. But more
recently, these stocks have come under pressure amid fears that
banks were controlling the flow of credit toward the property
sector.
In Friday's trading, shares of China Overseas Land fell 1.1%,
Country Garden lost 1.8%, Guangzhou lost 2.3% and Beijing North
Star gave up 2.6% in Hong Kong. Among shares traded on mainland
bourses, China Vanke slipped 0.4% in Shenzhen, while Poly Real
Estate dropped 2.2% in Shanghai.
Nomura analysts said that increases in supply of land through
government auctions will be "more effective in moderating property
price growth" in coming months.
"As such, we think the government wouldn't want to run the risk
of over-tightening, which could derail the economic growth
momentum," Nomura said.
It added that in addition to ensuring a greater supply, the
government was "stepping up efforts to monitor development
progress. Any intentional hoarding behavior will be punished by the
local governments."
In wider market action Friday, China's Shanghai Composite fell
2.4% to 3,066.09, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 0.7% to
20,724.05, Japan's Nikkei 225 Average rose 0.5%, South Kora's Kospi
advanced 1.1% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.6%.