Interim Results
10 Giugno 2003 - 2:24PM
UK Regulatory
RNS Number:1411M
JP Morgan Flem Chinese Inv Tst PLC
10 June 2003
LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCMENT
JPMORGAN FLEMING CHINESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT OF INTERIM RESULTS
The Directors of JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc announce the
Company's results for the six months ended 31st March 2003.
The Company's total return on diluted net assets for the six months to 31st
March 2003 was -1.6%. The Company's benchmark, the MSCI Golden Dragon Index (in
sterling terms), produced a total return of -1.9% and the total return to
shareholders for the period was +10.9%. Over the same period the Company's share
price rose from 34.3p to 37.8p and its discount to net assets declined from
21.1% to 11.3%.
Market Performance
The Chinese economy has been one of the best performing economies in the world
over the last few years. After growing by 8.1% in 2002, China's economic growth
accelerated to 9.9% in the first quarter of 2003. Although the key drivers
behind this growth have been the export sector, fixed asset investments and
foreign direct investment, domestic consumption is now showing encouraging signs
of picking up, with notable growth in demand for mobile phones, cars and
residential property.
The domestic Chinese stock markets, however, have not performed in line with the
economy, with Chinese equities suffering a fall during the period under review.
One constraining factor has been investor concern over the potential sale by the
government of state-owned shares and the subsequent increase in the supply of
equities that this would cause. Also, high valuations, poor corporate governance
and bad management have led to a general loss of confidence in Chinese shares.
In contrast to the problems experienced by domestically listed equities, Chinese
shares listed in Hong Kong have performed very well. Most of these companies
have reported better-than-expected 2002 and first-quarter 2003 results,
benefiting from strong Chinese demand for raw materials, as well as from rising
export demand. Oil companies have also performed well, as they were perceived to
be defensive during a period of high oil prices.
The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has mirrored the economic
prospects of Hong Kong. Domestic-related stocks, like property and retailing,
were the worst performers even before the SARS virus became an issue. The high
unemployment rate and deflationary pressure have affected domestic consumption.
However, export-related stocks have performed well as demand from the US for
Chinese exports continued to grow.
The Taiwan technology sector suffered from the lack of demand visibility for US
IT-related products due to the Iraqi War and the slow pace of recovery of the US
economy. However, cyclical sectors did very well on the back of strong demand
from China. Taiwanese companies based in China also outperformed, as they
benefited from China's strong economic growth, which translated into strong
revenue and profits growth.
Outlook
The outlook for the Greater Chinese stock markets remains uncertain in the
short-term, due to the possible consequences of SARS on the region's economy.
However, looking beyond the likely one or two quarters of disruption, the medium
term outlook remains very positive.
China continues to offer excellent growth potential and investment
opportunities. Company profits for 2002 and for the first quarter of 2003 have
exceeded expectations in the majority of cases, reflecting the strength of the
Chinese economy. Meanwhile, domestic demand has been very strong and
attributable to structural rather than cyclical factors. For example, demand for
cars rose by 60% in 2002 and is expected to grow by another 30-40 % in 2003.
With reductions in import tariffs on cars, following China's joining of the
World Trade Organisation, the growing spending power of Chinese consumers and
the current low penetration rates in this market, demand for cars is expected to
grow significantly over the next few years.
Hong Kong's economy was poised for a mild recovery from recession, but its
progress has definitely been slowed by SARS. Domestic-related sectors have been
hit the hardest and it will take some time to see a recovery. On the other hand,
export sectors should remain active and will be a major support to the Hong Kong
economy in the near term. The budget deficit may now take longer to be resolved
given the impact of SARS. However, the view is maintained that the Hong Kong
dollar will remain stable, given the abundant reserves to support the currency.
The long-term outlook for Taiwan's technology companies remains optimistic. The
outsourcing trend has not shown any signs of abating, with Taiwan's electronic
companies moving their manufacturing bases to China in order to maintain their
cost competitiveness. Some Taiwanese companies are already making good progress
infiltrating the vast domestic market in China. Also, Taiwan's electronic
companies will be the beneficiaries once the business sector in the US starts to
invest once again, while Taiwanese companies selling into China will benefit
from strong demand from the petrochemical, steel and automobile sectors.
Investment Strategy
The outlook for China's economy and equity market has become more optimistic and
the impact of the SARS disease is considered to be transitional. Therefore the
opportunity is being taken to increase exposure to Chinese equities. The
Company's investments have been focused on export-related sectors (shipping and
container terminal operators), the defensive power utilities sector and the
booming domestic consumption sectors such as automobiles.
In Hong Kong, the Company is underweight in domestic-related stocks and it is
expected that the impact of SARS will have a longer-term impact on companies
that are already suffering from the territory's prolonged economic recession.
Overweight positions have been maintained in export-related stocks, on the
expectation that demand from the US will recover and the export sector will lead
the Hong Kong economy out of the current difficult times.
In Taiwan, given the uncertainty in demand for IT-related products, the Company
has maintained its underweight position in technology companies, but will
revisit this decision when there is better visibility in order books. Attention
has been focused on China-related stocks, which are benefiting from the strong
demand from China.
SARS Update
Hong Kong started to report SARS cases in mid-March 2003. The situation appears
to have peaked in April, since when the number of new cases has fallen
significantly to below 20 per day. In early May most schools had reopened and
life in general was returning to normal. The economic loss is difficult to
assess at this point, but suffice to say that the worst affected sectors are
transportation, retailing and domestic consumption. The Hong Kong government has
announced a stimulation package of HK$11.8 billion, which includes tax rebates
and other concessions to the service industries. Economists have reduced their
economic growth forecasts by around 1-2%, bringing expected GDP growth for 2003
down to around 0-1%.
The Chinese authorities took drastic measures to contain the SARS virus in late
April. The Minister of Health and the Mayor of Beijing have been replaced. Vice
Premier and Politburo member Wu Yi has become the Minister of Health and is
responsible for all the SARS-related policies and directives. In addition, China
is to cooperate fully with the World Health Organisation and release daily
information on the new SARS cases according to different provinces. In early
May, China reported close to 200 new cases nationwide with more than half of
these cases coming from Beijing.
Economists forecast that SARS will reduce Chinese economic growth by around
0.5-1% this year, based on the assumption that SARS will be brought under
control in three-to-six months. At present, export-related operations are
running smoothly with no manufacturers from Hong Kong or Taiwan encountering any
disruptions to operations due to SARS. This is very important, since as China is
the "Factory of the World" it has attracted a significant amount of foreign
direct investment, which has helped export growth. If the export sector is not
affected, the engine of growth will remain intact and the demand shock will only
be transitional.
In Taiwan, the number of SARS cases has been increasing steadily, but the total
has remained low relative to that of China and Hong Kong and was around 100 in
early May. Most of the SARS cases are confined to the hospitals and there is no
evidence that the virus has found its way to the community as yet.
Overall, the impact of SARS on the Greater China region has been severe both in
terms of economic loss as well as in human lives. However, it is apparent that
Guangdong, being the first province to report the disease, has seen the number
of new cases reduce very quickly. Even in Hong Kong, where the number of new
cases was reported to peak in late March and early April, the situation appears
to be under control with new cases falling close to single digits. Given the
experience of Guangdong and Hong Kong and the drastic measures implemented by
the central government, we expect the disease will be brought under control in
the second quarter. The impact to economic growth will be limited and there
should not be any long term implications for the flow of foreign direct
investment and export performance.
Investment Manager
The Directors would like to inform you that,following a reallocation of
responsibilities within JF Asset Management's Greater China team, Mr Chung Man
Wing has succeeded Mr Steve Luk as Investment Manager of the Company. The
Directors welcome Mr Chung and sincerely thank Mr Luk for his contribution to
the Company since its launch in 1993.
J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management (UK) Limited - Secretary
23rd May 2003
For further information please contact:
Hilary Lowe, J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management (UK) Limited....020 7742 6000
JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc
Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2003
Statement of Total Return (Unaudited)
Six months to 31st March 2003 Six months to 31st March 2002 Year to 30th September 2002
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
#'000 #'000 #'000 #'000 #'000 #'000 #'000 #'000 #'000
Realised (losses)/
gains on
investments
- (384) (384) - 2,785 2,785 - 123 123
Net change in
unrealised losses - (121) (121) - 8,251 8,251 - (3,410) (3,410)
Currency gains/
(losses) on cash -
and short term - 6 6 (63) (63) - (11) (11)
deposits held
during the period
Other capital - (7) (7) - - - - (14) (14)
charges
Overseas dividends 227 - 227 187 - 187 673 - 673
Scrip dividends 5 - 5 - - - 201 - 201
Deposit interest 8 - 8 4 - 4 6 - 6
Stocklending fees 2 - 2 16 - 16 25 - 25
_______ ________ _______ ______ _______ ________ _______ _______ _______
Gross return 242 (506) (264) 207 10,973 11,180 905 (3,312) (2,407)
Management fee (157) - (157) (203) - (203) (417) - (417)
Other
administrative
expenses (99) - (99) (146) - (146) (236) - (236)
Interest payable - - - (12) - (12) (21) - (21)
_______ _______ _______ ______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______
Return before (14) (506) (520) (154) 10,973 10,819 231 (3,312) (3,081)
taxation
Taxation (6) - (6) (4) - (4) (60) - (60)
______ _______ _______ ______ _______ ______ _______ _______ _______
Return attributable
to shareholders
(20) (506) (526) (158) 10,973 10,815 171 (3,312) (3,141)
===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Return per ordinary (0.03)p (0.87)p (0.90)p (0.27)p 18.87p 18.60p 0.30p (5.70)p (5.40)p
share
Dividend per Nil Nil 0.25p
ordinary share
JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc
Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2003
BALANCE SHEET 31st March 31st March 30thSeptember
2003 2002 2002
#'000 #'000 #'000
Investments at valuation 23,962 40,001 22,037
Net current assets/(liabilities) 832 (585) 3,283
______ _______ _______
Total net assets 24,794 39,416 25,320
===== ===== =====
Net asset value per ordinary share 42.6p 67.8p 43.5p
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
2003 2002 2002
#'000 #'000 #'000
Net cash (outflow)/inflow from operating activities (67) (62) 58
Net cash outflow from returns on investments and - (12) (21)
servicing of finance
Total tax recovered - 10 9
Net cash inflow /(outflow) from capital expenditure and 857 (844) (324)
financial investment
Total equity dividends paid (145) - -
Net cash (outflow)/inflow from financing (121) 916 123
_______ ______ ______
Increase /(Decrease) in cash for the period 524 8 (155)
===== ==== ====
The above financial information does not constitute statutory accounts as
defined in Section 240 of the Companies Act 1985. Statutory accounts for the
year ended 30th September 2002 have been delivered to the Registrar of
Companies.
J.P. MORGAN FLEMING ASSET MANAGEMENT (UK) LIMITED
May 2003
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END
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