If History Repeats, Bitcoin Price Could Crash 33% Again: Here’s Why
09 Luglio 2024 - 4:00PM
NEWSBTC
The Bitcoin price is already down more than -22% since the
mid-March high over $73,000. While BTC is currently stabilizing
above $57,000 following the recent price crash, there could be even
more downside ahead if history repeats, according to Jacob
Canfield, a trading mentor at the Trading Mastery. Canfield’s
latest analysis points to a potential further decline in the
Bitcoin price, potentially reaching lows not seen since the
beginning of the year. Why Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 33%
Canfield’s analysis on TradingView hinges on historical patterns
observed in Bitcoin’s pricing trends. “Historically, Bitcoin loves
to retest the yearly open levels,” Canfield notes. According to
him, these retests can either confirm bearish or bullish trends but
are a consistent feature in Bitcoin’s market behavior. Since 2017,
each year’s opening price has been retested within the year, with
the notable exceptions of 2023 and 2024 (thus far). Related
Reading: Massive Mt. Gox Bitcoin Shift Unlikely To Disrupt Prices,
Says CryptoQuant CEO “Since 2017, the yearly open has been retested
every year except 2023 and 2024,” Canfield remarked. For instance,
the bearish retest of the 2018 opening BTC price occurred right
before the COVID-19 pandemic crash, and similar patterns were
observed in subsequent years. “Even the 2019 yearly open at $3,850
was retested during the 2020 Covid Crash,” the crypto analyst
added. Moreover, the 2020 yearly open was retested within the first
3 months of 2020. The 2021 opening price was also retested and
marked the lowest point before a significant rally that led to a
peak of $69,000, just before the collapse of FTX. “The 2022 Yearly
open was a bearish retest similar to 2018 before the lows around
$16,500. Similar to the 2021 yearly open retest giving us our
bottom, this gave us our local top,” Canfield observed. Related
Reading: Is Bitcoin Undervalued Now? Industry Expert Decodes The
Market State Looking ahead, the crypto analyst speculates about the
potential bottom for Bitcoin in the coming months. “Here is where
it gets interesting. The 2023 and 2024 yearly opens have not been
retested yet. The question is, do we form a bottom at the 2024
yearly open before more all time highs or do we capitulate all the
way down to the 2023 yearly open at $16,500 like we did in 2019.”
Crucial Indicators To Watch The answer may lie in several technical
indicators that Canfield considers pivotal. First, Canfield
mentions the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This indicator
aligns closely with the projected yearly open for 2024, suggesting
a higher likelihood of finding support in the $38,000 to $42,000
range. Notably, a price crash this low would mean another -33% for
BTC holders. The second crucial indicator is the weekly 200 EMA/MA
Ribbon. This indicator is also converging around the 2024 opening
price. It reinforces the potential for this level to act as a
strong support zone. “This gives us a higher probability that we
will form a bottom around that region and the 2023 yearly open may
act like the 2017 yearly open and never get retested,” Canfield
speculates. Despite the bearish outlook, Canfield’s analysis leaves
room for various scenarios, emphasizing the cyclical nature of
Bitcoin’s market dynamics and the role of historical precedents in
forecasting future trends. “Either way, I think this gives us a
high likelihood target based on historical precedence for where we
may find a local bottom,” he concludes, inviting further discussion
and analysis from the community. At press time, BTC traded at
$57,479. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
Grafico Azioni TRON (COIN:TRXUSD)
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Da Set 2024 a Ott 2024
Grafico Azioni TRON (COIN:TRXUSD)
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Da Ott 2023 a Ott 2024