- 33rd annual Global Business Aviation Outlook projects 8,500
new business jet deliveries valued at $280
billion over the next decade
- Purchase plans indicate that demand for new aircraft is
normalizing at an elevated level, significantly above pre-pandemic
figures
- Aircraft utilization is projected to increase with vast
majority of operators planning on flying more or the same as they
did this year
LAS
VEGAS, Oct. 20, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Honeywell
(NASDAQ: HON) today published its 33rd annual Global
Business Aviation Outlook, which provides unique insights into
current industry trends as well as longer-cycle developments and is
informed by extensive surveys of business aviation operators across
the globe.
Based on survey results, Honeywell forecasts up to 8,500 new
business jets worth $280 billion will
be delivered over the next decade, an increase in value from last
year's forecast. However, the five-year new jet purchase plans of
business aviation operators surveyed remained on par with last
year's results, indicating that demand for new aircraft is
stabilizing well above pre-pandemic levels. In addition, the survey
reveals ongoing plans by business jet manufacturers to ramp up
production in response to strong backlogs and stable book-to-bill
ratios persisting through 2024.
"The business aviation industry is in a prolonged period of
healthy growth, and we don't see that positive trend changing any
time soon," said Heath Patrick,
president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace Technologies.
"Business aviation continues to see more users and, as a result,
manufacturers are ramping up production to keep pace with growing
demand, a trend we expect to continue for the foreseeable future.
Despite a mixed macroeconomic environment and challenging
geopolitical circumstances, operators are optimistic about their
flight activity increasing in 2025 and beyond."
Key findings in the 2024 Honeywell Global Business Aviation
Outlook include:
- New business jet deliveries in 2025 are expected to be 12%
higher than in 2024. Expenditures are expected to be 11%
higher.
- Five-year purchase plans for new business jets are
comparable with last year's survey and equivalent to 18% of the
current fleet. Fleet additions are consistent with results from
a year ago at 3% of the fleet, which is in line with historical
industry performance.
- More than 90% of those surveyed expect to fly more or about
the same in 2025 than in 2024.
- Large jets are expected to account for about two-thirds of
all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years,
consistent with last year's results.
- 82% of respondents consider "Performance" among their top
three most important criteria when purchasing their next
aircraft. "Cost" was second at 60%.
New Business Aviation User Update: Returning to a Stable
Growth Environment
Following an influx of first-time business aviation users into
the industry throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with record
levels of flight activity, the industry has begun to return to a
more stable growth environment at new elevated levels of production
and flight activity. Demand remains robust for new aircraft as
business jet manufacturer backlogs stay strong and production
volumes ramp up to accommodate that higher demand.
Based on the findings of this year's survey, several key
industry trends to watch include:
- Demand for New Aircraft: New aircraft models introduced
in recent years have driven increased demand for new aircraft, a
trend which survey results indicate will continue throughout this
decade and into the early 2030s.
- Flight Activity & Utilization Levels: Flight
activity is expected to increase in 2025 relative to 2024,
especially for those who currently operate at high utilization
levels. The reduction in barriers to access business aviation in
recent years, driven by the introduction of new shared access
models, has enabled a persistent flow of new customers opting for
business aviation alternatives for their travel needs.
- Fractional Operators: Fractional operators may be the
largest beneficiaries of new customer growth, and they are also
benefitting from traditional operators wanting to supplement their
current operations with fractional shares. The business aviation
industry has experienced changing dynamics in recent years,
resulting in new higher levels of aircraft deliveries and flight
activity than seen in the previous decade, and the sector appears
poised to achieve stable growth on top of this over the next
decade.
Regional Breakdown: North America Sees Strongest Demand, But
Latin America Shows Optimism
North
America: North America will see 66% of
the five-year new jet deliveries, which is consistent with
historical demand for the region. 30% of respondents from
North America expect to fly more
next year, amounting to a large proportion of the demand, which is
likely contributing to the sustained growth of new jet
deliveries.
Europe: European operators
will comprise 13% of the five-year new jet deliveries, which is one
percentage point below last year's share and follows a similar
trend over the past few years. A strong regional focus on
sustainability, environmental pressures, and the availability of
alternative transit options are the likely cause of this slight dip
in new aircraft demand.
Latin
America: Operators in Latin America will account for 10% of the
five-year new jet deliveries, which is an increase of five
percentage points from their share in 2023. In contrast to last
year, respondents in Latin America
are optimistic about favorable macroeconomic conditions, which will
likely drive increased flight activity as well as demand for new
jets. This effect is particularly strong in Brazil where year-over-year flight activity
growth is stronger than the global average.
Asia
Pacific: Operators in Asia Pacific will make up 7% of the five-year
new jet deliveries. APAC is returning to typical fleet growth after
several years of decline throughout the pandemic. There is a
notable uptick in flight activity in Australia, where departures are up nearly
double digits year-over-year.
Middle East/Africa: Fleet growth here
accounts for 3% of the five-year new jet deliveries, which is a
decline of three percentage points from last year's surveyed
expectations. Flight activity in the region declined year-over-year
through the first half of 2024, likely due to conflicts in the
region.
Preowned Aircraft Update: Market Cools From Record-Low
Inventory Levels
The market for pre-owned aircraft is cooling after record low
inventory levels in 2021 and 2022, but used aircraft values remain
strong relative to the previous decade. While pre-owned aircraft
inventory will likely continue to increase slowly, prices should
remain stable, thereby supporting steady demand for pre-owned
aircraft. Operators mentioned expecting to rely on pre-owned
aircraft purchases to expand their fleets slightly more than in
prior years.
Sustainability in Business Aviation: Fuel-Efficient Aircraft
Recognized as Most Effective Method of Improving Environmental
Impact
In light of Honeywell's commitment to driving aviation
sustainability and reaching carbon neutrality by 2035 in its
operations and facilities, this year's survey – for the fourth
consecutive year – features an analysis of sustainability in
business aviation and also examines how operators are trying to
lower their carbon footprint. Several key findings include:
- European operators show the most proactive behavior in
lowering their carbon footprint, with North American operators
lagging slightly behind. However, the total number of operators
taking proactive steps in North
America is still greater than any other region given the
much larger volume of business aviation operations in the
region.
- According to those surveyed, the acquisition of new, more
fuel-efficient aircraft is considered to be the most effective
method to reduce environmental impact, with 85% of
respondents mentioning this to be 'very effective' or 'moderately
effective.'
-
- However, this method is only being utilized by 60% of operators
who report proactively taking steps to minimize their carbon
footprint. These "proactive" operators also outline the use of
sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as another key method for improving
their environmental impact, with 55% of this group mentioning its
use in their operations.
- 75% of operators rank cost as one of the top three obstacles to
adopting SAF into their operations, followed by its availability at
64%.
Click here to request a copy of Honeywell's 2024
Global Business Aviation Outlook.
Methodology
Honeywell's forecast methodology is based on multiple sources,
including macroeconomic analyses, original equipment manufacturers'
production and development plans shared with the company, and
expert deliberations from aerospace industry leaders. Honeywell, in
partnership with Seefeld Marketing International Inc. and Ad Hoc
Recherche Inc., also conducted surveys of business aviation
operators comprising 375 nonfractional operators representing a
fleet of 1,488 business aircraft worldwide. The survey sample is
representative of the entire industry in terms of geography,
operation and fleet composition. This comprehensive approach
provides Honeywell with unique insights into operator sentiments,
preferences and concerns and provides considerable intelligence on
product development needs and opportunities.
Making an Impact on Business Decisions
Honeywell's Global Business Aviation Outlook reflects current
operator concerns and identifies longer-cycle trends that Honeywell
uses in its own product decision process. The survey has helped to
identify opportunities for investments in sustainability solutions,
enhance aircraft connectivity offerings, and expand propulsion
offerings, innovative safety products, services and upgrades. The
survey informs Honeywell's business pursuit strategy and helps
consistently position the company on high-value platforms in growth
sectors.
About Honeywell
Products and services from Honeywell Aerospace
Technologies are found on virtually every commercial, defense
and space aircraft, and in many terrestrial systems. The Aerospace
Technologies business unit builds aircraft engines, cockpit and
cabin electronics, wireless connectivity systems, mechanical
components, power systems, and more. Its hardware and software
solutions create more fuel-efficient aircraft, more direct and
on-time flights and safer skies and airports. For more information,
visit aerospace.honeywell.com or follow Honeywell Aerospace
Technologies on LinkedIn.
Honeywell is an integrated operating company serving a broad
range of industries and geographies around the world. Our business
is aligned with three powerful megatrends – automation, the future
of aviation and energy transition – underpinned by our Honeywell
Accelerator operating system and Honeywell Forge IoT platform. As a
trusted partner, we help organizations solve the world's toughest,
most complex challenges, providing actionable solutions and
innovations through our Aerospace Technologies, Industrial
Automation, Building Automation and Energy and Sustainability
Solutions business segments that help make the world smarter and
safer as well as more secure and sustainable. For more news and
information on Honeywell, please visit
www.honeywell.com/newsroom.
This release contains certain statements that may be deemed
"forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 21E of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements, other than
statements of historical fact, that address activities, events or
developments that we or our management intends, expects, projects,
believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are
forward-looking statements. Such statements are based upon certain
assumptions and assessments made by our management in light of
their experience and their perception of historical trends, current
economic and industry conditions, expected future developments and
other factors they believe to be appropriate. The forward-looking
statements included in this release are also subject to a number of
material risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to
economic, competitive, governmental and technological factors
affecting our operations, markets, products, services and prices.
Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future
performance, and actual results, developments and business
decisions may differ from those envisaged by such forward-looking
statements. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that
affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission.
Contacts:
Media
Adam Kress
(602) 760-6252
adam.kress@honeywell.com
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