‘Higher-for-Longer’ Cools National House
Price Appreciation
—Expect year-over-year price appreciation to
follow this cooling trend in the months to come, says Chief
Economist Mark Fleming—
First American Data & Analytics, a leading national
provider of property-centric information, risk management and
valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial
Corporation (NYSE: FAF), today released its April 2024 Home
Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes
less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and
metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes
metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into
starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found
here.
April1 2024 Non-Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) HPI
New York-Jersey City-White Plains,
NY-NJ Market
Metric
Change in HPI
March-April 2024 (month over month)
-1.2 percent
April 2023-April 2024 (year over year)
+4.6 percent
National HPI
Metric
Change in HPI
March-April 2024 (month over month)
+0.5 percent
April 2023-April 2024 (year over year)
+6.1 percent
Chief Economist National Home Price Index Analysis:
“After years of historically low levels of homes for sale, the
pace of existing-home listings has modestly increased, bringing
much-needed supply to the housing market. However, just as
inventory levels have increased, affordability has weakened as
mortgage rates have drifted higher in response to the Fed’s
decision to keep the federal funds rate ‘higher for longer,’
reducing demand,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First
American. “More supply amid a pullback in demand means price
appreciation is cooling. The month-over-month growth rate peaked in
February at 1.3 percent, but has since cooled significantly. This
supply-demand dynamic is likely to persist, so expect
year-over-year price appreciation to follow this cooling trend in
the months to come.”
Year-Over-Year Price-Tier Data for the New York-Jersey
City-White Plains, NY-NJ Metro Area: April 2023 to April
2024
The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price
changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on
local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales
prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution;
mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of
the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which
represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price
distribution.
CBSA
Starter
Mid-Tier
Luxury
New York-Jersey City-White Plains,
NY-NJ
9.9%
7.4%
1.1%
“Nationally, price appreciation for starter homes continues to
outperform other price tiers. Given starter homes are the least
supplied and the most demanded segment of the market, it’s no
surprise that, even in a ‘higher-for-longer’ rate environment,
there are markets with double-digit annualized price appreciation,”
said Fleming. “Starter-tier prices are increasing year over year by
more than 10 percent in St. Louis, Miami and Pittsburgh.”
April 2024 First American Data & Analytics Price Tier HPI
Highlights
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)
Ranked by Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in Starter Tier
HPI
CBSA
Change in Starter Tier
HPI
Change in Mid-Tier HPI
Change in Luxury Tier
HPI
Pittsburgh
+12.1 percent
+6.1 percent
+4.1 percent
Miami
+11.6 percent
+9.7 percent
+8.9 percent
St. Louis
+10.8 percent
+4.1 percent
+3.5 percent
New York
+9.9 percent
+7.4 percent
+1.1 percent
Warren, Mich.
+9.6 percent
+5.6 percent
+7.9 percent
Additional April 2024 First American Data & Analytics HPI
Highlights
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)
with Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in HPI
CBSA
Change in HPI
Anaheim, Calif.
+10.2 percent
Miami
+9.5 percent
San Diego
+8.0 percent
Warren, Mich.
+7.6 percent
Pittsburgh
+7.6 percent
There were no CBSAs with a
Year-Over-Year Decrease in HPI
HPI data for all 50 states and the largest 30 CBSAs by
population is available here.
Next Release
The next release of the First American Data & Analytics
House Price Index will take place the week of June 17, 2024.
First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology
The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures
single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices
updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current
report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels
and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the
report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is
reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to
revision as data from more transactions become available.
The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures prices
changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million
paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure
states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS
sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house
prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in
areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices,
such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location
data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real
Estate-Owned transactions are not included.
Disclaimer
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this
page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not
necessarily represent the views of First American or its
management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s
business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change
without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts
to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that
the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular
purpose. © 2024 by First American. Information from this page may
be used with proper attribution.
About First American Data & Analytics
First American Data & Analytics, a division of First
American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of
property-centric information, risk management and valuation
solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry’s
largest property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8
billion document images. Its major platforms and products include:
DataTree®, FraudGuard®, RegsData®, First American TaxSource™ and
ACI®. Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics
powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services
industries with advanced decisioning solutions at
www.FirstAmDNA.com.
About First American
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a
premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real
estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and
stability built over more than 130 years, innovative proprietary
technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the
digital transformation of its industry. First American also
provides data products to the title industry and other third
parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing;
home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management
services; and other related products and services. With total
revenue of $6.0 billion in 2023, the company offers its products
and services directly and through its agents throughout the United
States and abroad. In 2024, First American was named one of the 100
Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work® and Fortune
Magazine for the ninth consecutive year. The company was named one
of the 100 Best Workplaces for Innovators by Fast Company in 2023.
More information about the company can be found at
www.firstam.com.
1 The most recent index results are subject to revision as data
from more transactions become available.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240521593129/en/
Media Contact: Marcus Ginnaty Corporate Communications
First American Financial Corporation (714) 250-3298
Investor Contact: Craig Barberio Investor Relations First
American Financial Corporation (714) 250-5214
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