Annual House Price Growth Nears Return to
Historical Norms Nationally
—Supply and Demand Dynamics Favor Ongoing
House Price Slowdown, Even as Mortgage Rates Fall, says Chief
Economist Mark Fleming—
First American Data & Analytics, a leading national
provider of property-centric information, risk management and
valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial
Corporation (NYSE: FAF), today released its August 2024 Home
Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes
less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and
metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes
metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into
starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found
here.
August1 Home Price Index
Dallas-Plano-Irving Market
Metric
Change in HPI
July-August 2024 (month over month)
+0.6 percent
August 2023-August 2024 (year over
year)
+2.3 percent
National HPI
Metric
Change in HPI
July-August 2024 (month over month)
+0.1 percent
August 2023-August 2024 (year over
year)
+4.5 percent
Chief Economist National HPI Analysis:
“Annual house price appreciation nationally slowed for the
eighth consecutive month, inching closer to the pre-pandemic
historical average of approximately 3.5 percent. Housing demand
remains strained under the pressure of elevated mortgage rates and
high prices, while for-sale inventory has increased compared to
last year. Sluggish demand combined with increasing supply is a
recipe for cooling home price appreciation,” said Mark Fleming,
chief economist at First American. “The key question moving forward
is whether the recent, and potentially ongoing, downward trend in
mortgage rates fueled by the Fed’s widely expected interest rate
cut will be enough to bring buyers off the sidelines. But most
buyers are also sellers, and they will remain significantly rate
locked-in by their current low-rate mortgages, so modestly lower
rates may not spur significant numbers of buyers into the
market.”
Year-Over-Year Price-Tier Data for the Dallas-Plano-Irving
Metro Area: August 2023 to August 2024
The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price
changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on
local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales
prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution;
mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of
the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which
represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price
distribution.
CBSA
Starter
Mid-Tier
Luxury
Dallas-Plano-Irving
1.6%
1.6%
4.5%
“Potential first-time home buyers suffer the most from
affordability challenges, as they lack the equity from an existing
home to bring to the closing table. Yet, first-time home buyer
demand appears to be resilient, since annual price growth in the
starter home price tier remained positive in 25 of the top 30
markets we track in August,” said Fleming. “Notably, many of the
top markets for growth in starter home prices are those that are
relatively more affordable, such as Pittsburgh, Baltimore and St.
Louis.”
August 2024 First American Data & Analytics Price Tier
HPI Highlights
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)
Ranked by Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in Starter Tier
HPI
CBSA
Change in Starter Tier
HPI
Change in Mid-Tier HPI
Change in Luxury Tier
HPI
Warren, Mich.
+9.0 percent
+4.9 percent
+5.1 percent
Cambridge, Mass.
+8.9 percent
+5.2 percent
+6.3 percent
St. Louis
+8.8 percent
+3.8 percent
+3.4 percent
Pittsburgh
+8.4 percent
+5.7 percent
+4.2 percent
Baltimore
+7.0 percent
+6.7 percent
+5.7 percent
Additional August 2024 First American Data & Analytics
HPI Highlights
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)
with Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in HPI
CBSA
Change in HPI
Anaheim, Calif.
+8.5 percent
Cambridge, Mass
+6.8 percent
Seattle
+6.2 percent
Miami
+6.2 percent
Warren, Mich.
+6.2 percent
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)
with a Year-Over-Year Decrease in HPI
Oakland, Calif.
-4.1 percent
Tampa, Fla.
-1.6 percent
HPI data for all 50 states and the largest 30 CBSAs by
population is available here.
Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on
housing market dynamics.
Next Release
The next release of the First American Data & Analytics
House Price Index will take place the week of October 14, 2024.
First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology
The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures
single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices
updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current
report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels
and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the
report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is
reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to
revision as data from more transactions become available.
The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures price
changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million
paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure
states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS
sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house
prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in
areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices,
such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location
data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real
Estate-Owned transactions are not included.
Disclaimer
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this
page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not
necessarily represent the views of First American or its
management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s
business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change
without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts
to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that
the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular
purpose. © 2024 by First American. Information from this page may
be used with proper attribution.
About First American Data & Analytics
First American Data & Analytics, a division of First
American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of
property-centric information, risk management and valuation
solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry’s
largest property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8
billion document images. Its major platforms and products include:
DataTree®, FraudGuard®, RegsData®, First American TaxSource™ and
ACI®. Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics
powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services
industries with advanced decisioning solutions at
www.FirstAmDNA.com.
About First American
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a
premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real
estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and
stability built over more than 135 years, innovative proprietary
technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the
digital transformation of its industry. First American also
provides data products to the title industry and other third
parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing;
home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management
services; and other related products and services. With total
revenue of $6.0 billion in 2023, the company offers its products
and services directly and through its agents throughout the United
States and abroad. In 2024, First American was named one of the 100
Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work® and Fortune
Magazine for the ninth consecutive year, and named one of the 100
Best Workplaces for Innovators by Fast Company for the second
consecutive year. More information about the company can be found
at www.firstam.com.
_______________ 1 The most recent index results are subject to
revision as data from more transactions become available.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240919351084/en/
Media Contact: Marcus Ginnaty Corporate Communications
First American Financial Corporation (714) 250-3298
Investor Contact: Craig Barberio Investor Relations First
American Financial Corporation (714) 250-5214
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