OPTIONS REPORT: Downgrade Fears Jolt VIX, But No Panic Yet
13 Gennaio 2012 - 10:51PM
Dow Jones News
News that Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered
France's credit rating Friday kicked off turbulence in the market's
"fear" gauge, but the VIX continues to hover well below the
persistently anxious readings seen last year, a reflection that
traders aren't deeply bothered over S&P's moves.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose to a
session-high 22.43 early Friday, but eased as the day progressed,
adding 1.14, or 5.57%, to 21.61 recently. The VIX, as the measure
is known, shot 50% higher to 48, the highest since 2009, after
S&P cut its credit rating for the U.S. in early August.
The VIX extrapolates future expectations for market volatility
based on options prices on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock
index, which closed down 6 points, or 0.5%, to 1289. The VIX tends
to rise when stocks fall.
"Despite the ongoing concerns about problems in the euro zone,
[the VIX] doesn't seem to reflect any grave concerns about another
uptick in overall levels of market volatility going forward, as
domestic economic news has improved and players now await a flood
of earnings reports," said Frederic Ruffy, options analyst at
Whatstrading.com in a note.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that S&P circulated
a notice among euro-zone governments that a ratings announcement
"could be imminent." French finance minister Francois Baroin later
confirmed that U.S.-based rating agency Standard and Poor's
downgraded France's treasured triple-A credit rating by one notch,
to double-A-plus.
Traders stopped short of showing panic in part because
downgrades have been rumored to be a possibility for weeks.
"The upcoming downgrades reflect a reality that has been fully
priced into the market," said Michael Shaoul, chief executive at
Oscar Gruss, in a note Friday.
Nonetheless, some options traders Friday re-established new
positions in the VIX that benefit from a sharp rise in market
volatility over the next two months. Traders employed a "call
spread," buying March 30 VIX calls while also selling 45-strike
calls that expire the same month, according to Chris McKhann,
analyst at optionMonster.
The same traders closed out of similar February positions and
extended their hedges into March expiration. The trade profits
should the VIX rise much above 30, a level that indicates
heightened duress in U.S. equities.
Another trader set up a spread position that profits from higher
volatility, buying February 30-strike VIX calls while at the same
time selling 40-strike calls that also expire next month, according
to equity derivatives strategists at Susquehanna Financial
Group.
Options on the VIX are based on futures. VIX futures maturing
next Wednesday rose 1.00, or 4.5%, to 23.20, while futures maturing
in February rose 0.9, or 3.8%, to 24.65. March VIX futures rose
0.9, or 3.6%, to 26.15.
Overall volume in VIX options was more than twice the daily
average and the most since November. Call options that profit from
a rise in the VIX outpaced put options that profit from declines by
a ratio of 10-to-1, Trade Alert data showed.
-By Chris Dieterich, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2611;
christopher.dieterich@dowjones.com