Aon Re Study: Hurricane Risk Reduces Prospective Profit of Homeowners Insurance
10 Ottobre 2006 - 11:00PM
PR Newswire (US)
CHICAGO, Oct. 10 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Increases in homeowners
insurance rates have not been sufficient thus far to provide an
adequate return on equity on homeowners insurance, making further
increases necessary, according to an analysis by Aon Re, the
world's largest reinsurance broker. (Logo:
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO ) With
capital requirements and the cost of catastrophe reinsurance up
year over year, especially in states most at risk for hurricanes,
Aon Re's analysis of prospective return on equity for the
homeowners insurance line is 5.7 percent. A similar analysis in
2005 revealed a 9.3 percent return on equity in 2005. Many insurers
seek a return of 14 percent or more. Aon Re's findings are
highlighted in its 2006 Homeowners Return on Equity Outlook.
"Homeowners insurers are in a challenging position. Rating agencies
are taking an even-closer look at catastrophe risk as they assess
insurers' capital adequacy, meteorologists and risk modeling firms
expect more and stronger hurricanes at least in the near term, and
the increases in homeowners insurance rates that we've seen thus
far aren't enough to provide insurers the opportunity to earn back
their cost of capital," said Bryon G. Ehrhart, president and chief
executive officer of Aon Re Services, Inc. "Homeowners insurers
must keep more capital on hand to meet industry standards than was
necessary only a year ago. As a result, we at Aon Re are helping
our clients to understand the new capital requirements and needed
rate actions." Aon Re's prospective return on equity is 3.5 percent
for hurricane- affected states viewed as a group, 8.1 percent for
the non-hurricane-affected states. To reach a prospective return on
equity of 14 percent, an estimated average rate increase of 43.3
percent would be required for the hurricane- affected states, 11.1
percent for the non-hurricane-affected states. "The needed rate
increase for hurricane states is likely to be large, not only
because of the changing views of expected losses due to hurricanes,
but also because of the amount of capital that is necessary to
operate in those states, which is linked to their risk of
catastrophic loss," said Randall E. Brubaker, senior vice president
of Aon Re Services, Inc. Prospective returns on equity at current
rates and rate increases for 14 percent return on equity are based
on analysis of actuarial support for rate filings of the five
leading companies in states making up 80 percent of the U.S.
population, where this information is publicly available. Estimates
reflect rate increases filed by these largest insurers through July
2006. Smaller states were estimated using combined ROE of reviewed
states, credibility adjusted based on state loss-ratio data
reported in annual statements. Estimates are based on an Aon Re
analysis updated in 2006 of capital requirements and cost of
reinsurance by state for a company with an A.M. Best "A" rating.
Prospective profit and needed rate increases for actual companies
will vary and should be based on individual company analysis About
Aon Aon Corporation (NYSE:AOC) is a leading provider of risk
management services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, human
capital and management consulting, and specialty insurance
underwriting. There are 47,000 employees working in Aon's 500
offices in more than 120 countries. Backed by broad resources,
industry knowledge and technical expertise, Aon professionals help
a wide range of clients develop effective risk management and
workforce productivity solutions. http://www.aon.com/ For more
information, contact: Rahsaan Johnson, 312.381.2684, This press
release contains certain statements related to future results, or
states our intentions, beliefs and expectations or predictions for
the future which are forward-looking statements as that term is
defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
These forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and
uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially
from either historical or anticipated results depending on a
variety of factors. Potential factors that could impact results
include: general economic conditions in different countries in
which we do business around the world, changes in global equity and
fixed income markets that could affect the return on invested
assets, fluctuations in exchange and interest rates that could
influence revenue and expense, rating agency actions that could
affect our ability to borrow funds, funding of our various pension
plans, changes in the competitive environment, our ability to
implement restructuring initiatives and other initiatives intended
to yield cost savings, our ability to execute the stock repurchase
program, our ability to consummate the pending sale of the Aon
Warranty Group, changes in commercial property and casualty markets
and commercial premium rates that could impact revenues, changes in
revenues and earnings due to the elimination of contingent
commissions, other uncertainties surrounding a new compensation
model, the impact of investigations brought by state attorneys
general, state insurance regulators, federal prosecutors, and
federal regulators, the impact of class actions and individual
lawsuits including client class actions, securities class actions,
derivative actions, and ERISA class actions, the cost of resolution
of other contingent liabilities and loss contingencies, and the
difference in ultimate paid claims in our underwriting companies
from actuarial estimates. Further information concerning the
Company and its business, including factors that potentially could
materially affect the Company's financial results, is contained in
the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO
http://photoarchive.ap.org/ DATASOURCE: Aon Corporation CONTACT:
Rahsaan Johnson, Aon Corporation, +1-312-381-2684, or Web site:
http://www.aon.com/
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