In its weekly release, Houston-based oilfield services company
Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) reported a rise in the
U.S. rig count (number of rigs searching for oil and gas in the
country). This can be attributed to an increase in the tally of
oil-directed rigs, partially offset by cutbacks in natural gas and
miscellaneous rig counts.
The Baker Hughes rig count, issued since 1944, acts as an
important yardstick for drilling contractors such as
Transocean Inc. (RIG), Diamond
Offshore (DO), Noble Corp. (NE),
Nabors Industries (NBR), Patterson-UTI
Energy (PTEN), Helmerich & Payne
(HP), etc. in gauging the overall business environment of the oil
and gas industry.
Analysis of the Data
Weekly Summary: Rigs engaged in exploration and
production in the U.S. totaled 1,984 for the week ended March 16,
2012. This was up by 11 from the previous week’s count and
represents the third decrease in 5 weeks.
The current nationwide rig count is more than double that of the
6-year low of 876 (in the week ended June 12, 2009) and
significantly exceeds the prior-year level of 1,720. It rose to a
22-year high in 2008, peaking at 2,031 in the weeks ending August
29 and September 12.
Rigs engaged in land operations climbed by 6 to 1,920, inland
waters activity increased by 3 to 21, while offshore drilling was
up by 2 to 43 rigs.
Natural Gas Rig Count: The natural gas rig
count decreased for the tenth week in a row to 663 (a drop of 7
rigs from the previous week). As per the most recent report, the
number of gas-directed rigs is at their lowest level since May 3,
2002 and is down more than 29% from its 2011 peak of 936, reached
during mid-October.
The current natural gas rig count remains 59% below its all-time
high of 1,606 reached in late summer 2008. In the year-ago period,
there were 875 active natural gas rigs.
Oil Rig Count: The oil rig count was up by 21
to 1,317. The current tally – the highest since Baker Hughes
started breaking up oil and natural gas rig counts in 1987 – is way
above the previous year’s rig count of 839. It has recovered
strongly from a low of 179 in June 2009, rising almost 7.4
times.
Miscellaneous Rig Count: The miscellaneous rig
count (primarily drilling for geothermal energy) at 4 was down by 3
from the previous week.
Rig Count by Type: The number of vertical
drilling rigs fell by 21 to 576, while the horizontal/directional
rig count (encompassing new drilling technology that has the
ability to drill and extract gas from dense rock formations, also
known as shale formations) was up by 32 at 1,408. In particular,
horizontal rig units – that reached an all-time high of 1,185 in
January this year – rose by 16 from last week’s level to 1,180.
To Conclude
As mentioned above, the natural gas rig count has been falling
since the last few weeks, 271 rigs in fact (or 29%) from the recent
highs of 934 in October 28.
Is this bullish for natural gas fundamentals? The answer is
"no," if we look at the U.S. production and the shift in rig
composition.
With horizontal rig count – the technology responsible for the
abundant gas drilling in domestic shale basins – currently close to
its all-time high, output from these fields remains robust. As a
result, gas inventories still remain at elevated levels – up some
45% from benchmark levels.
Hamstrung by this huge and sharply widening surplus, natural gas
prices have dropped approximately 55% from 2011 peak of $4.92 per
million Btu (MMBtu) in June to the current level of around $2.25
(referring to spot prices at the Henry Hub, the benchmark supply
point in Louisiana). Incidentally, prices hit a 30-month low of
$2.07 earlier this month.
To make matters worse, mild winter weather across most of the
country has curbed natural gas demand for heating, indicating a
grossly oversupplied market that continues to pressure commodity
prices in the backdrop of sustained strong production.
This has forced several natural gas players to announce
drilling/volume curtailments. Exploration and production outfits
like Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL), Talisman
Energy Inc. (TLM) and Encana Corp. (ECA)
have all reduced their 2012 capital budget to minimize investments
in development drilling.
On the other hand, Oklahoma-based Chesapeake Energy
Corp. (CHK) – the second-largest U.S. producer of natural
gas behind Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) – and rival
explorer ConocoPhillips (COP) have opted for
production shut-ins to cope with the weak environment for natural
gas that is likely to prevail during the year.
However, we feel these planned reductions will not be enough to
balance out the massive natural gas supply/demand disparity and
therefore we do not expect much upside in gas prices in the near
term. In other words, there appears no reason to believe that the
supply overhang will subside and natural gas will be out of the
dumpster in 2012.
With natural gas unlikely to witness a durable rebound in prices
from their multi-year plight and at the same time crude prices
topping $100 a barrel, energy producers are boosting liquids
exploration to take advantage of this trend. As a result of
movement of rigs away from natural gas towards oil, the tally of
liquids-directed rigs has climbed to a 25-year high.
BAKER-HUGHES (BHI): Free Stock Analysis Report
CHESAPEAKE ENGY (CHK): Free Stock Analysis Report
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP): Free Stock Analysis Report
DIAMOND OFFSHOR (DO): Free Stock Analysis Report
ENCANA CORP (ECA): Free Stock Analysis Report
HELMERICH&PAYNE (HP): Free Stock Analysis Report
NABORS IND (NBR): Free Stock Analysis Report
NOBLE CORP (NE): Free Stock Analysis Report
PATTERSON-UTI (PTEN): Free Stock Analysis Report
TRANSOCEAN LTD (RIG): Free Stock Analysis Report
TALISMAN ENERGY (TLM): Free Stock Analysis Report
ULTRA PETRO CP (UPL): Free Stock Analysis Report
EXXON MOBIL CRP (XOM): Free Stock Analysis Report
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