SASKATOON, May 31, 2016 /CNW/ - Gensource Potash
Corporation ("Gensource" or the "Company")
(TSX.V: GSP) is pleased to announce the completion of a
Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") for its Vanguard
Potash Project ("Vanguard", or "Project") in
Saskatchewan. The Vanguard area is the subject of an Asset
Purchase Agreement ("APA") with Yancoal Canada Resources and
the APA is subject to closing conditions as set out in Gensource's
news release dated 06Apr2016. The PEA was completed in
compliance with NI 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral
Projects ("43-101", or "Technical Report").
As stated in the recommendations of the initial Vanguard
Technical Report, announced 28Apr2016, the key next step for
Vanguard was to complete a PEA. Gensource is pleased to
announce today the completion of the PEA and the next stages of
project development: upgrading the resource and completing a
preliminary feasibility study.
The PEA was prepared by Innovare Technologies Ltd.
(Innovare), in conjunction with ENGCOMP Engineering and
Computing Professionals Inc. (ENGCOMP), of
Saskatoon. The geological and resource estimate
components of the PEA remain unchanged from the 28Apr2016 Resource
Estimate Technical Report, as completed by Terra Modelling Services
Inc.
The PEA formalizes the conceptual engineering design for the
Vanguard project, and ultimately becomes the prototype for
Gensource's small scale production facilities with a target
production rate of 250,000 t/a. Based on the
engineering analysis, an AACE (Association for the Advancement of
Cost Engineering) Class 5 capital cost estimate was completed and
operating costs were calculated. The basis of the engineering
design was the Inferred Mineral Resource as defined in the Resource
Estimate announced 28Apr2016. An economic analysis was
performed to understand the potential financial performance of this
small scale operation.
As background, the Company is developing a small scale
production model. The small size is of key
importance:
- It allows for vertical integration of the mine with an
identified market partner,
- It has the potential for lower capital expenditures (CAPEX)
which may be more readily financed in challenging capital markets
for the resource industry, together with very attractive operating
costs (OPEX), and
- It has the potential to exhibit a significantly reduced
environmental footprint – with no salt tailings on surface, no
brine ponds or other brine control structures, and no requirement
for fresh surface water consumption.
Gensource's President & CEO, Mike
Ferguson, said, "We are very pleased to have completed the
PEA for Vanguard – and we are specifically pleased with the
results. The analysis in the Report indicates that there is
good potential for an economic potash operation using the small
scale techniques we've defined. The fact that a strong ROI is
indicated – even when using very conservative inputs like today's
low potash price, and a real and rational sustaining CAPEX program
- supports Gensource's business plan as a marketable approach to
becoming a new and independent potash producer. We believe
the PEA provides a very solid foundation for Gensource to move
forward with the next step work on Vanguard. The recommendations of
the PEA include, 1) upgrade the resource from Inferred to
Measured and Indicated through a geological confirmation program
and, 2) to begin a preliminary feasibility study. Those
are exciting next steps and we are laying the groundwork now."
SUMMARY OF THE PEA
General:
Design parameters for, and general results of the PEA are:
Project
capacity:
|
50,000 t/a final
product, standard grade.
|
Mine
life:
|
100 years +, based on
64 Mt of inferred resource identified in the Resource Estimate
released 28Apr2016
|
Mining
method:
|
Selective dissolution
using horizontal caverns
|
Processing:
|
Cooling
crystallization incorporating innovative energy efficiency
measures
|
Product
storage:
|
Nominally 30
days
|
Product
destination:
|
CFR China, per the
Asset Purchase Agreement between Yancoal Canada Resources and
Gensource, announced 06Apr2016. $95/t transportation
allowance included in the economic analysis.
|
CAPEX:
|
$C 247M including
contingency – (~$US 190M at today's nominal exchange rate of 1.30)
– Capital Intensity of ~ $C 1,000 / (t/a)
|
Area
|
Total
Cost
|
Well Field
|
$CAD 27,816,000
|
Pipelines
|
$CAD
15,879,000
|
Process
Plant
|
$CAD 78,400,000
|
Product Storage &
Loadout
|
$CAD
4,346,000
|
Site
Infrastructure
|
$CAD 20,705,000
|
Offsites
|
$CAD 10,853,000
|
Project
Indirects
|
$CAD 39,745,000
|
Provisional
Costs
|
$CAD 49,435,000
|
Grand
Total
|
$CAD
247,179,000
|
OPEX:
|
$C 52.39 /t final
product (~$US 40.30 at today's nominal exchange rate of
1.30). The major components of OPEX are natural gas delivered
to site at $4.15/GJ and operating personnel count of 47 full time
staff.
|
Development:
|
8- 10 months for
completion of the development phase of the project, including
engineering studies and environmental and regulatory
licensing.
|
Construction:
|
18-20 month
construction period
|
Economic
Analysis:
|
The financial
performance of the project is shown in table below, for a range of
product prices and costs of capital.
|
Financial
Performance post Potash Production Tax, Royalties, Levies and
Surcharges
|
Price/Tonne
US$
|
Project
IRR
|
NPV
@
|
|
Payback
(Yrs)
|
|
|
|
6.00%
|
8.00%
|
10.00%
|
Opp
Margin
|
$225
|
9.75%
|
$
|
110,984,504
|
$39,607,094
|
($4,405,129)
|
78.16%
|
9.50
|
$260
|
13.22%
|
$
|
222,182,583
|
$
|
121,863,651
|
$58,819,659
|
80.72%
|
6.90
|
$275
|
14.61%
|
$
|
268,590,720
|
$
|
156,021,252
|
$84,960,726
|
81.62%
|
5.80
|
$300
|
16.86%
|
$
|
345,716,684
|
$
|
212,671,723
|
$128,221,109
|
82.92%
|
4.80
|
$325
|
19.05%
|
$
|
422,688,112
|
$
|
269,122,515
|
$
|
171,256,685
|
84.02%
|
4.10
|
$350
|
21.14%
|
$
|
495,516,738
|
$
|
324,548,037
|
$
|
213,373,513
|
84.97%
|
3.80
|
$375
|
23.22%
|
$
|
575,111,273
|
$
|
380,577,517
|
$
|
255,965,046
|
85.78%
|
3.50
|
$400
|
25.21%
|
$
|
650,626,535
|
$
|
435,650,211
|
$
|
297,707,217
|
86.50%
|
3.10
|
$425
|
27.15%
|
$
|
726,061,619
|
$
|
490,629,112
|
$
|
339,346,279
|
87.13%
|
2.80
|
$450
|
29.06%
|
$
|
801,471,630
|
$
|
545,578,683
|
$
|
380,953,098
|
87.69%
|
2.50
|
$475
|
30.94%
|
$
|
876,881,641
|
$
|
600,528,254
|
$
|
422,559,916
|
88.19%
|
2.40
|
$500
|
32.82%
|
$
|
952,587,980
|
$
|
655,728,331
|
$
|
464,379,387
|
88.64%
|
2.30
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Over the life of the
operation, a base case price of $300/t is assumed. Financial
performance indicators for that base case are:
|
Indicator
|
Pre Sask.
Profit
Tax
|
Post Sask.
Profit
Tax
|
NPV8
|
$322,594,953
|
$212,671,723
|
IRR
|
19.55%
|
16.86%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note: The
economic analysis contained in the Report is based on Inferred
Resources, and is preliminary in nature. Inferred Resources are
considered too geologically speculative to have mining and economic
considerations applied to them and to be categorized as Mineral
Reserves. Mineral Resources that are not Mineral Reserves do
not have demonstrated economic viability. There is no
certainty that the reserves development, production, and economic
forecasts on which this PEA is based will be
realized.
|
FURTHER DETAIL
Geology:
No further work has been completed regarding the definition of the
resource since the previous Technical Report announced on
28Apr2016. The resources defined within the Vanguard area
are:
|
KP 363 & KP
484 Inferred Resource: Lower Patience Lake Sub-Member
(PLM1)
|
Minimum
K2O Grade
|
Maximum
K2O Grade
|
Average
K2O Grade
|
Average
Thickness
|
Average
Carnallite
Grade
|
Average
Insolubles
|
Sylvinite
Tonnage
|
Potential
K2O,
40% Recovery*
|
Potential
K2O,
30% Recovery**
|
Potential
K2O,
50% Recovery**
|
Weight
%
|
Weight
%
|
Weight
%
|
Meters
|
Weight
%
|
Weight%
|
Mt
|
Mt
|
Mt
|
Mt
|
20.29
|
28.89
|
24.25
|
4.42
|
0.68
|
6.97
|
646.56
|
62.72
|
47.04
|
78.40
|
*Base Case
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
**Sensitivity
Analysis
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Following
parameters apply:
|
|
|
|
|
1. K2O cut
off grade of 15%
|
|
|
|
|
2. Maximum Carnallite
cut-off of 2%
|
|
|
|
|
3. No Insoluble
cut-off.
|
|
|
|
|
4. No thickness
cut-off, due to the mining methodology.
|
|
|
|
|
5. 6000m Radius of
Influence.
|
|
|
|
|
6. Known Anomalies
from seismic deducted.
|
|
|
|
|
7. Further deduction
of 25% for unknown anomalies
|
|
|
|
|
8. Recovery range a
total recovery (mining and plant) range.
|
|
|
|
|
Mining:
Vanguard will implement a selective mining approach, using
horizontal caverns. A total of 6 caverns, covering nominally
2 sections (1 section = 1 square mile) of mineral resource will be
required to attain the planned 250,000 t/a production
rate. Calculated cavern life, using only the PLM1
sub-member of the Patience Lake member of the Prairie Evaporite
formation (as defined in the Technical Report) is 11
years. Cavern replacement costs and pipeline extension
costs are allowed for in the sustaining capital estimate.
Processing:
The production of potash product (nominally 96% purity KCl) is
accomplished by the removal of KCl from the recirculating brine
stream by temperature reduction. Temperature reduction
is accomplished by a flash cooling crystallizer, followed by a
cooling surface crystallizer operation. The brine stream is
continuously recirculated between the solution mining caverns and
the process plant, picking up KCl in the caverns and crystallizing
it into solid KCl in the process plant.
Plant utilities, including steam, natural gas, water, power,
control are distributed from central locations to each
process/mining unit operation.
Off-site utilities include power, natural gas and potentially
potable water. Investigations confirm location and
availability of the utilities.
A rail spur is planned to the plant site to allow all product to
be transported by rail, resulting in no heavy-haul truck traffic on
the exiting road network.
Transportation and Logistics:
All product will be transported by rail to the west coast of
Canada or the United States.
No specific terminal or port has been selected, but investigations
revealed several options at various locations on the west coast of
North America for shipment.
The Cost of ocean freight, including the cost to move the
product from a West Coast port to a Chinese East Coast port has
been factored into the operating cost estimate, although a specific
port of destination in China has
not yet been identified by Gensource's market partner.
Economic Analysis:
The following defines the input parameters and assumptions used in
the discounted cash flow model (DCFM) for the Gensource Vanguard
project:
Assumptions:
- The economic analysis is based on a 100% equity scenario.
- Potash production is 100% standard grade.
- Cash-flow model constructed in $CAD.
- Pricing for standard product is USD$260/t, CFR China starting in 2017 with an
escalation of 1% thereafter.
- Operating costs have been inflated at 2% per annum.
- There will be no expansion beyond 250,000 t/y.
- The economic model runs for 45 years, including 43 years of
production.
- Consideration was given to the expected timing of construction
expenses.
- OPEX and sustaining CAPEX are included in the models.
- Annual sustaining CAPEX averages $CAD 16.09/t ($US $12.28/t)
- Insurance during construction is included in the models.
- The cash flows include Saskatchewan Resource Surcharge (3% of
revenue), Provincial Royalties (4.4% of K2O), and
Saskatchewan Potash Profit Tax.
- Transportation costs to destination are assumed CFR China. $CAD
95 has been included under the OPEX section of the cash flow.
- Revenue generated from future potash sales are converted into
$CAD at a long-term historical exchange $CAD:$US of 1:25.
- Working capital requirements of $CAD 2.21/t.
- Head office general and administrative expenses of 1.5% of
Revenue.
- Spot $CAD:$US exchange rate as of the date of this report is
1:31.
|
|
Financial
Performance post Potash Production Tax, Royalties, Levies
and
|
|
|
Surcharges
|
|
|
NPV
@
|
|
|
Price/Tonne
|
Project
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Opp
Margin
|
Payback
|
US$
|
IRR
|
6.00%
|
8.00%
|
10.00%
|
|
(Yrs)
|
$225
|
9.75%
|
$
|
110,984,504
|
|
$39,607,094
|
|
($4,405,129)
|
78.16%
|
9.50
|
$260
|
13.22%
|
$
|
222,182,583
|
$
|
121,863,651
|
|
$58,819,659
|
80.72%
|
6.90
|
$275
|
14.61%
|
$
|
268,590,720
|
$
|
156,021,252
|
|
$84,960,726
|
81.62%
|
5.80
|
$300
|
16.86%
|
$
|
345,716,684
|
$
|
212,671,723
|
|
$128,221,109
|
82.92%
|
4.80
|
$325
|
19.05%
|
$
|
422,688,112
|
$
|
269,122,515
|
$
|
171,256,685
|
84.02%
|
4.10
|
$350
|
21.14%
|
$
|
495,516,738
|
$
|
324,548,037
|
$
|
213,373,513
|
84.97%
|
3.80
|
$375
|
23.22%
|
$
|
575,111,273
|
$
|
380,577,517
|
$
|
255,965,046
|
85.78%
|
3.50
|
$400
|
25.21%
|
$
|
650,626,535
|
$
|
435,650,211
|
$
|
297,707,217
|
86.50%
|
3.10
|
$425
|
27.15%
|
$
|
726,061,619
|
$
|
490,629,112
|
$
|
339,346,279
|
87.13%
|
2.80
|
$450
|
29.06%
|
$
|
801,471,630
|
$
|
545,578,683
|
$
|
380,953,098
|
87.69%
|
2.50
|
$475
|
30.94%
|
$
|
876,881,641
|
$
|
600,528,254
|
$
|
422,559,916
|
88.19%
|
2.40
|
$500
|
32.82%
|
$
|
952,587,980
|
$
|
655,728,331
|
$
|
464,379,387
|
88.64%
|
2.30
|
Over the life of the operation, a base case price of
$300/t is assumed. Financial
performance indicators for that base case are:
Indicator
|
Pre Sask.
Profit
Tax
|
Post Sask.
Profit
Tax
|
NPV8
|
$322,594,953
|
$212,671,723
|
IRR
|
19.55%
|
16.86%
|
Conclusions and Recommendations:
The conclusions and recommendations made in the report are
that:
- The resource should be upgraded to Measured and Indicated
through a drilling and 3D seismic programs. Cost estimate to
complete this work is nominally $C
2.6M. Completion of this work is subject to Gensource
obtaining additional financing.
- Gensource complete a preliminary feasibility study for
Vanguard. Cost to complete a preliminary feasibility study is
estimated at $1.0M. Completion
of this work is subject to Gensource obtaining additional
financing.
Final Words:
There are no commercial operations at the Vanguard Project at this
time. The determination of the prospects for commercial
operations at the Vanguard Project is dependent upon a feasibility
study demonstrating economic and technical viability.
The scientific and technical information contained in this news
release was prepared by or under the supervision of Max Ramey, PE,
of Innovare Technologies; John McEwan, PE, of Innovare
Technologies; Sandy Debusschere, of
Innovare Technologies; Louis Fourie,
P.Geo, Pri. Sci. Nat., of Terra Modeling Services; Geoff Wilkie, P.Eng., of ENGCOMP Engineering and
Computing Professionals, and; Sheridan
Fjeld, P.Eng., of ENGCOMP Engineering and Computing
Professionals – all consultants to Gensource and Independent
Qualified Persons under NI 43-101.
About Innovare
Innovare Technologies Ltd. is a consulting firm, specialized in
drilling, solution mining and processing technologies for potash
mining projects. The three principals of the company have a
combined 100+ years' experience, much of that in the potash
industry, and have successfully developed potash projects in
Saskatchewan. Based on solution mining and processing
concepts developed in other commodities dating back to 1992, the
principals realized the potential applications of these concepts
and began to adapt them to the extraction of
potash.
About ENGCOMP
ENGCOMP is a multi-discipline engineering consulting firm
located in Saskatoon, SK.
With more than 10 years of establishment in the heart of
Saskatchewan's potash industry,
ENGCOMP is a leader in the delivery of engineering for potash
processing facilities. For more information see
www.engcomp.ca.
About Terra Modelling Services
Terra Modelling Services Inc. is a geological consulting company
based in Dalmeny, Saskatchewan,
with specific expertise in potash and related minerals, as well as
diamonds and kimberlites.
For further information about Terra Modelling Services,
contact:
Terra Modelling Services Inc.
Louis Fourie, Owner and
Principal
Telephone: (306) 292 9154
Email: louis.fourie@terramodellingservices.ca;
About Gensource
Gensource is based in Saskatoon,
Saskatchewan and is focused on developing the next potash
production facility in that province. Gensource's President and
CEO, Mike Ferguson P.Eng., has
assembled a management and technical team with direct and specific
expertise and experience in potash development in Saskatchewan, and organized that team with a
business plan focusing on small scale, economical production and
vertical integration. Gensource plans to use up-to-date
techniques and technologies to implement a potash facility like no
other in the province – one that has a very small environmental
footprint and community impact.
Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services
Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX
Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or
accuracy of this release.
Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This news release may contain forward looking information and
Gensource cautions readers that forward looking information is
based on certain assumptions and risk factors that could cause
actual results to differ materially from the expectations of
Gensource included in this news release. This news release includes
certain "forward-looking statements", which often, but not always,
can be identified by the use of words such as "believes",
"anticipates", "expects", "estimates", "may", "could", "would",
"will", or "plan". These statements are based on information
currently available to Gensource and Gensource provides no
assurance that actual results will meet management's expectations.
Forward-looking statements include estimates and statements with
respect to Gensource's future plans, objectives or goals, to the
effect that Gensource or management expects a stated condition or
result to occur, including completion of the YCR transaction, the
expected timing for release of a reserve estimate and a preliminary
feasibility study, as well as a feasibility study, and the
establishment of vertical integration partnerships and the sourcing
of end use potash purchasers. Since forward-looking statements are
based on assumptions and address future events and conditions, by
their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties.
Actual results relating to, among other things, completion of the
YCR transaction, a refund of lease conversion costs in the event
that the YCR transaction does not proceed, results of exploration,
the economics of processing methods, project development,
reclamation and capital costs of Gensource's mineral properties,
Gensource's financial condition and prospects, the ability to
establish viable vertical integration partnerships and the sourcing
of end use potash purchasers, could differ materially from those
currently anticipated in such statements for many reasons such as:
an inability to complete the YCR transaction on the terms as
announced or at all, including the conditions for regulatory
approval and financing; denial by ministerial authorities of a
refund of lease conversion costs in the event that the YCR
transaction does not proceed; an inability to finance and/or
complete an update of the resource estimate to a reserve estimate,
a preliminary feasibility study and a feasibility study, changes in
general economic conditions and conditions in the financial
markets; the ability to find distributors and source off-take
agreements; changes in demand and prices for potash; litigation,
legislative, environmental and other judicial, regulatory,
political and competitive developments; technological and
operational difficulties encountered in connection with Gensource's
activities; and other matters discussed in this news release and in
filings made with securities regulators. This list is not
exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of Gensource's
forward-looking statements. These and other factors should be
considered carefully and readers should not place undue reliance on
Gensource's forward-looking statements. Gensource does not
undertake to update any forward-looking statement that may be made
from time to time by Gensource or on its behalf, except in
accordance with applicable securities laws.
SOURCE Gensource Potash Corp