The 3rd Annual Capital Link Forum "Invest in International
Shipping" took place last week in New York City with tremendous
success. The Conference was completely booked with a participation
of 742 attendees and with standing room only for most presentations
throughout the day. Attendance increased by over 25% from last
year, setting a new record.
The level of investor participation demonstrated that shipping
remains in the radar of Wall Street despite the overall current
market volatility.
The objective of the Forum was to provide investors with a
comprehensive review and outlook of the various shipping markets as
well as of the participating companies. The Forum also aimed to
enhance the information flow between investors and shipping
companies and to increase the awareness about shipping as an
industry to a wide audience of investors.
CONFERENCE MATERIAL AVAILABLE ON WEBSITE
All conference material, including an audio webcast of the
various panels, is accessible on Capital Link's shipping website,
at www.CapitalLinkShipping.com
The conference featured panels on several topics of current
interest, company presentations and one-on-one meetings between
company management and investors.
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY - DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK
Mr. Guy Verberne -- Head of Economics and Investment Strategy of
Fortis Bank Nederland/Global Markets -- gave his view on likely
economic developments following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in
the middle of September of last year.
The 'fear shock' that was the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy gave
rise to very aggressive reductions in spending on consumer durables
and investments -- both on capital goods and business inventories.
These adjustments have taken place on a global scale. As a result
we are currently witnessing the sharpest contraction in world
industrial production and world trade since World War II.
The good news is that recessions usually don't last very long:
the post-war average for the United States stands at 10 months,
while the longest recession lasted no more than 16 months. The
current US recession ranks among the deepest in post-war history,
but it is unlikely to break the record by more than a few months,
thanks to assertive government interventions to preserve the
banking system, and the very aggressive easing of fiscal and
monetary policy. This would imply a return to positive growth rates
somewhere around the middle of the year. The Eurozone economy
should also return to positive growth around mid-year, but its
recovery will be much slower than that of the United States, due to
an inflexible labor market, and high exposure to Eastern
Europe.
Emerging economies as a whole are much better positioned than in
the past to cope with the withdrawal of foreign capital, although
countries with high dependence on commodity exports and those with
large current account deficits are suffering badly. They also have
much more leeway than developed economies for fiscal and monetary
policy easing. With the exception of Eastern Europe -- which needs
to restructure -- emerging economies are likely to benefit
relatively quickly from a recovery in developed economies.
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY
Mr. Dimitris Vranopoulos, Managing Director of Marine Plus,
presented on ''Developments in the global shipbuilding industry''
and mentioned that "With an orderbook of 9653 ships, over 570
million dwt and worth 533 billion dollars will the shipping market
go into deeper recession from oversupply of newbuilds? The
orderbook is indeed at an all time high, but one needs to consider
other ongoing trends as well which will also have a significant
impact:
"The orderbook is shrinking -- by over 10 million dwt only in
January of this year, as deliveries outpace new orders and
demolition of vessels. Scrapping has picked up tremendously since
the fourth quarter of 2008 -- up to 10 million dwt only in December
-- January of this year. Cancellations from non-performance of
inexperienced/greenfield yards, as well as insolvency of greenfield
yards will further reduce the order book.
"Owners are actively re-negotiating their contracts with yards,
and securing delayed delivery, as well as ''negotiated''
cancellations, especially for bulker projects. Prudent owners and
established shipbuilders with good pedigree will survive the
current crisis. Shipping is a long-term business with huge capital
expenditure, and shipbuilding is the means of renewing the world
fleet with better, greener and more efficient vessels."
FLEET QUALITY AS A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
The ship Classification Society Germanischer Lloyd addressed the
issue of Quality in Ship Building and Operations demonstrating the
impact of Quality in Class Rules on vessel earnings and investment
performance. GL's Business Development Manager - Harry Vordokas
presented with empirical evidence the value added to the final
product through thorough engineering know-how and quality surveys.
He pointed out "Whilst with changed market conditions the
opportunity to renegotiate terms of financial calculations is
possible, such is not available with the completed ship in terms of
quality of building standards and workmanship. GL's deep roots in
Engineering and R&D, in addition to its worldwide acknowledged
expertise in shipbuilding know-how, is reflected in its Rules and
Superiority in Quality performance."
BANK FINANCING IN TODAY'S MARKETS
Mr. Daniel C. Rodgers, Partner at Watson, Farley & Williams
(New York) LLP moderated a panel on this topic with Mr. Harris
Antoniou, CEO Energy, Commodities and Transportation - Fortis Bank
Nederland (Holding) N.V. and Mr. Robin Das, Deputy Global Head of
Shipping - HSH Nordbank, who stressed that shipping remains a core
activity for his bank.
Mr. Rodgers mentioned: "I was honored to have had the
opportunity to moderate the panel on Bank Financing in Today's
Markets. Bank financing is a critical component to shipping and I
could not have asked for more thorough or forthright responses than
those Harris Antoniou of Fortis and Robin Das of HSH Nordbank
provided at the conference. Both of these gentlemen had the
difficult task of explaining in clear terms the complicated issues
that have arisen over the past few months and have so greatly
changed the landscape for ship lending. As a ship finance lawyer I
was very much encouraged by the positive outlook that both Harris
and Robin espoused and I am confident that the ship lending
industry remains in very good hands."
Harris Antoniou, CEO of Energy Commodities & Transportation
of Fortis Bank Nederland gave an overview of the syndication
markets for shipping and noted that "Following the collapse of
Lehman Brothers the syndication markets for shipping loans
basically stalled in a trend that seems will stay with us for the
remainder of 2009 at least.
"Level of activity was close zero also in the US shipping
markets. The situation here is exacerbated also as a result of the
fact that 80% of the US related fleet is financed by European
Financial Institutions that are in the process of limiting their
involvement in ship finance as a result of a) weakened balance
sheets and b) bank nationalisations that increase allocation to
local rather than international markets."
Antoniou warned the audience of the negative effects of those
two trends on the shipping industry, which is responsible for
transporting 90% of the world's goods, in the most efficient and
sustainable manner.
He concluded saying that ship values will suffer, although we
have seen the bulk of the correction already and that assertive
policy reactions sill restore growth, but ship deliveries will
dampen the effect on rates and values.
Fortis Bank Nederland's Energy Commodities and Transportation
Group (ECT) is a financial solutions provider to international
companies active in the value chain of the Energy Commodities &
Transportation Industries.
LEGAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE DOWNTURN IN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY
The nature of the legal issues faced by the shipping industry
has changed dramatically over the last twelve months as the
industry has sought to come to terms with the global downturn.
Companies are now looking closely at material contracts (including
shipbuilding contracts and long term charter parties) struck at the
top of the market to see if there is any way out of those contracts
or, if not, what the consequences of breach might be. Other issues
include the possible breach of banking covenants, the rebasing of
dividends and employee incentive schemes and refinancing. Chris
Randall, a partner at the international law firm Norton Rose,
provided an insight into these and other issues and provided some
practical advice for directors facing such issues.
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Mr. Jeremy Penn, Chief Executive of the Baltic Exchange in
London, discussed the thriving nature of the market for Forward
Freight Agreements and noted that "Despite the downturn in rates,
volumes had held up well. It was noticeable that the vast majority
of the business was now cleared through one of the three clearing
options available, which takes credit risk out of
consideration.
"New developments in the market include the provision of Time
Charter Equivalent rates for the tanker market, making it more
accessible for industry outsiders, additional routes in tankers,
reflecting the evolution of the market, and the introduction of a
tradeable version of the BDI to offer investors exposure to the
overall dry bulk market. It was suggested that the FFA market could
offer solutions to some of the specific credit risks which had
emerged in the physical market during the recent collapse in
rates."
CONTAINER PANEL
The container panel was moderated by Mr. Ken Hoexter, Managing
Director, Airfreight, Surface, & Marine Transportation Research
- Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch and featured Mr. Dimitri
Andritsoyiannis, CFO of Danaos Corporation (NYSE: DAC), Mr.
Aristides J. Pittas, CEO of Euroseas (NASDAQ: ESEA) and Mr. Gerry
Wang, CEO of Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW).
The container panel noted that the lack of trade financing and
current decline in consumer demand have lead to a slowdown in cargo
movements. The expectation is that 2009 will be a difficult year
for most of the liner companies which are the ones that charter
vessels from the container companies. But the consensus was that
these liner companies have been through several cycles before and
provided the cycle this time is not too long they likely to
survive. This means that they should continue honoring their
charter commitments despite the pressure of the current trading
environment.
The panel expected a slowdown in demand for 2009, and flat
demand for 2010 with an eventual market turnaround after that. The
container fleet is young enough so scrapping is not expected to be
a significant factor. The silver lining of the current market
environment is that newbuildings are likely to de delayed and
spread over a number of years and the lower fuel costs reduced the
overall expense borne by the charterers.
TANKER PANEL
The tanker panel was moderated by Mr. Robert Bugbee of the
Scorpio Group and featured Mr. John Lazaridis, CEO, Capital Product
Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP), Mr. Marco Fiori, CEO, d'Amico
International Shipping (MI: DIS), Mr. Jeffrey Pribor, CFO, General
Maritime Corporation (NYSE: GMR), Mr. Gregory McGrath, CFO, Omega
Navigation (NASDAQ: ONAV) and Mr. Nikolas Tsakos, CEO, Tsakos
Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP).
The tanker panel focused on the fact that companies are
protected from lower spot freight rates through time charter
coverage for 2009 and a large portion into 2010, providing steadier
income and predictable returns to shareholders. On the flip side, a
conservative chartering coverage strategy may have caused some
owners to miss out on record spot rates in 2008.
The recent production cuts by OPEC are putting pressure on
tanker rates but at the same time oil prices at $50 per barrel may
lead to increased demand. 2009 is expected to be a tougher year,
with the environment improving as of 2010, as single hull vessels
retire and the orderbook may experience delays and cancellations as
the result of the current credit crunch and the economic turmoil.
The unforeseen exogenous factor, the credit crisis, may provide a
correction to supply in the tanker market. Credit struggles could
be a blessing in disguise with a potential reduction of new tonnage
through delays and some cancellations that in return could help to
keep to a tighter balance between supply and demand.
Distressed sales will likely continue to put downward pressure
on asset values and with expectations of a softer market in 2009
owners are not rushing out for asset acquisitions right now, but
they all expressed their interest in the prospects for further
growth at the proper time.
The panelists highlighted their ability pay dividends even in
this period of tightened credit and market volatility and they
emphasized the need for prudent use of their cash in the current
market environment, as cash on hand can create the catalyst for
higher growth over time. Panelists generally agreed that retaining
earnings can be just as financially rewarding in the long-term as
paying out attractive dividends.
DRY BULK PANEL
The dry bulk panel discussion featured Mr. Ted Petrone,
President, Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM); Mr. Polys
Hajioannou, CEO, Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB); Mr. Dale Ploughman, CEO,
Seanergy Maritime Holdings (NASDAQ: SHIP) and Mr. George
Syllantavos, CFO, Star Bulk Carriers (NASDAQ: SBLK). The panel was
moderated by Mr. Harris Antoniou, CEO, Energy, Commodities and
Transportation, Fortis Bank Nederland (Holding) N.V.
The discussion focused mainly on the funding problems created by
the current market environment, time charter fleet coverage, the
cyclical nature of shipping, and the advantages of being a public
company. The panellists discussed the ways of covering their
financing needs other than just being dependent on banks and noted
the funding problems for the order book leading to vessel
cancellations and deferrals. Even though it is difficult to pin
down exact cancellation statistics, the consensus was that
orderbook reduction and acceleration of scrapping is expected to
have a positive impact in the supply and demand balance.
The panel highlighted the cyclical nature of the dry bulk
shipping market and discussed about being counter-cyclical by
employing their fleets under long term time charters. It was noted
that the stock market does not currently properly reward companies
for their charter coverage.
The panel's consensus was that it is better to have longer
coverage at a lower rate with profit sharing agreements as opposed
to higher rates for a shorter period. This mitigates the potential
of charter renegotiations while it improves cash flow stability and
visibility.
Finally, the panellists also talked about the advantage of being
a public company which enables them to have access to the capital
markets, a factor of particular significance in today's
environment, when bank financing has decreased. The panellists also
noted that the companies are not likely to engage in share buybacks
of any size in the current environment.
The panel concluded by stressing that in every crisis there is
an opportunity; and that strong companies should be able to
capitalize on the opportunities presented by current dry bulk
market conditions.
KEYNOTE SPEAKER
The Forum was highlighted by Luncheon Keynote speaker Dr. Peter
Swift, Managing Director of INTERTANKO. INTERTANKO is the
International Association of Independent Tanker Owners. INTERTANKO
has been the voice of independent tanker owners since 1970,
ensuring that the oil that keeps the world turning is shipped
safely, responsibly and competitively.
Introduced by Mr. Nikolas Tsakos, CEO - Tsakos Energy, Dr. Swift
addressed a 400-strong luncheon crowd of high caliber shipping
investors, fund managers, shipowners, bankers and lawyers.
His speech included a brief introduction on INTERTANKO and a
comprehensive review and outlook of the various shipping markets.
Speaking on the outlook for tanker markets in 2009, Dr. Swift
admitted that global oil demand is likely to continue to be
weakened next year. He added however, that despite any weakening,
demand "will still be there" as the world "needs oil."
He concluded the speech by warming up the crowd with a humorous
joke: "What's the difference between a shipowner and a pirate? A
pirate can make money out of a capesize vessel."
COMPANY PRESENTATIONS
There were presentations by the management of the following
companies
-- Aries Maritime (NASDAQ: RAMS), by Mr. Jeff Parry, CEO
-- Capital Product Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP), by Mr. John Lazaridis, CEO
-- d'Amico International Shipping (MI: DIS), Mr. Marco Fiori, CEO
-- Danaos Corporation (NYSE: DAC), Mr. Dimitri Andritsoyannis, CFO
-- Ocean Rig, a subsidiary of DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), Mr. David
Mullen, CEO
-- Euroseas (NASDAQ: ESEA), Mr. Aristides Pittas, CEO
-- Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Mr. Ted Petrone, President
-- Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM), Mr. Michael McClure, CFO
-- OceanFreight (NASDAQ: OCNF), Mr. Dimitris Nenes, COO
-- Omega Navigation Enterprises (NASDAQ: ONAV), Mr. Gregory McGrath, CFO
-- Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Mr. Polys Hajioannou, CEO
-- Star Bulk Carriers Corp (NASDAQ: SBLK), Mr. George Syllantavos, CFO
-- Tsakos Energy Corporation (NYSE: TNP), Mr. George Saroglou, COO
ANALYST PARTICIPATION
The following analysts participated in the Forum moderating the
various panels and introducing the speakers:
-- Mr. Charles Rupinski, Sr. V.P., Senior Equity Analyst for Shipping and
Transportation, Maxim Group,
-- Mr. G. Scott Burk, CFA, Executive Director and Senior Analyst, Ocean
Shipping Equity Research, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.,
-- Mr. Kevin Sterling, Research Shipping Analyst, Stephens, Inc.,
-- Mr. Christian Wetherbee, Vice President, Transportation Equity
Research Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch
-- Mr. Ken Hoexter, Managing Director, Airfreight, Surface, & Marine
Transportation Research - Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch
ONE-ON-ONE MEETINGS
There were over 100 one-on-one meetings which took place during
the Forum between company management and investors.
ORGANIZERS
The Forum was organized by Capital Link, a New York-based
Investor Relations and Financial Communications Firm with a
strategic commitment to shipping.
It was organized in cooperation with the New York Stock
Exchange, NASDAQ and the New York Maritime Inc.
MEDIA PARTNERS
The Media Partners included Barron's, Bloomberg, Fairplay,
Lloyds List, TradeWinds, The Maritime Executive, The Digital Ship,
Maritime Information Systems and World Oil. Also, ELNAVI and
NAFS.
SPONSORS
Fortis Bank Nederland (Holding) N.V. and Tsakos Energy
Navigation Ltd. were the Lead Sponsors.
The Baltic Exchange, Clarkson's Johnson Rice, Maxim Group,
Oppenheimer, Stephens, Inc., HSH NordBank, Watson Farley &
Williams, Marine Plus and Germanisher Lloyd were among the
Sponsors.
Presenters and Sponsors also included Aries Maritime, Capital
Product Partners, d'Amico International Shipping, Danaos
Corporation, DryShips (Ocean Rig), Euroseas, Navios Maritime
Holdings, Navios Maritime Partners, OceanFreight, Omega Navigation
Enterprises, Norton Rose, Safe Bulkers, Seanergy Maritime Holdings
and Star Bulk Carriers.
About Capital Link, Inc.
Capital Link is a New York based Investor Relations and
Financial Communications Firm also with offices in London and
Athens.
Capital Link has made a strategic commitment to shipping where
it maintains a leadership position as provider of Investor
Relations services to listed shipping companies.
Capital Link organizes a series of CEO and Analyst Forums on Dry
Bulk, Tankers and Containers aimed to enhance the information flow
about shipping to the investment community. Also organizes annually
two shipping conferences; one in New York (March) and one in
London.
In addition Capital Link maintains a website dedicated to listed
shipping companies (www.CapitalLinkShipping.com) where investors
have free access to news, company profiles and presentations, stock
market data, industry reports, articles and interviews. Capital
Link is a member of the Baltic Exchange.
Contact: Nicolas Bornozis President Capital Link, Inc. Tel. +1
(212) 661-7566 E-mail: nyshippingforum@capitallink.com
http://www.capitallink.com http://www.capitallinkshipping.com
http://www.capitallinkforum.com
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