Aon Re Study: Global 2006 Hurricane Season Normal -- Despite Light Atlantic Landfalling Activity
28 Dicembre 2006 - 10:32PM
PR Newswire (US)
Warmer Central-Pacific Waters Shift Natural Catastrophes From
Atlantic to Pacific, Proactive Catastrophe Management Still Vital
CHICAGO, Dec. 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- In a year remembered for
no landfalling Atlantic hurricanes -- following heavy landfalling
hurricane activity in 2004 and 2005 -- global tropical activity was
normal, according to a report issued by Impact Forecasting, LLC, a
unit of Aon Corporation (NYSE:AOC). (Logo:
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO ) The
combined number of tropical cyclones for the Northern Hemisphere
was 31 in 2006, equal to the long-term average. However, more
intense tropical cyclones (categories 3, 4 and 5) exceeded
historical levels by 45 percent. Less intense tropical cyclones
were below the long-term average by 33 percent. 2006 Tropical
Activity vs. Long-Term Averages Saffir- East West Simpson Northern
Atlantic Pacific Pacific Scale Hemisphere Basin Basin Basin Avg.
2006 Chg. % Avg. 2006 Chg. Avg. 2006 Chg. Avg. 2006 Chg. 1 & 2
17.9 12 -5.9 -33% 5.1 3 -2.1 4.9 5 +0.1 7.9 4 -3.9 3, 4 & 5
13.1 19 +5.9 +45% 1.1 2 +0.9 2.5 6 +3.5 9.5 11 +1.5 TOTAL 31.0 31 0
0% 6.2 5 -1.2 7.4 11 +3.6 17.4 15 -2.4 While significant attention
has been devoted to the fact that no hurricanes made landfall in
the United States in 2006, hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin
lagged historical norms by only 1.2 events. Consistent with
expectations for periods with above-average sea surface
temperatures, more intense hurricanes (categories 3, 4 and 5) were
above average by 0.9 events (81 percent), and less intense
hurricanes (categories 1 and 2) were below average by 2.1 events
(41 percent). Using historical hurricane landfall data for the
United States when higher sea surface temperatures were present,
the likelihood that no hurricanes would make landfall (similar to
what occurred in 2006) is 25 percent. Activity in the eastern
Pacific Ocean was greater year-over-year, with 18 named storms, up
from 15 in 2005. The eastern Pacific experienced six intense
hurricanes (categories 3, 4 and 5) in 2006 versus a long-term
average of 2.5 per year with Hurricane Ioke reaching Category 5
status in August. The activity in the western Pacific was down
slightly with 15 typhoons versus the long-term average of 17.4.
However, the number of intense storms was above average with 11
storms versus a long-term average of 9.5. "As evidenced by the
recent El Nino patterns in the Pacific and resulting effects to the
Atlantic basin, continued vigilance is required on a global basis.
This study reinforces the need for catastrophe modeling, and the
focus needs to remain on the big picture, rather than on activity
in a single year or a single region," said Steve Jakubowski,
executive vice president and chief operating officer with Aon Re's
Impact Forecasting unit. Aon Re's Annual Global Climate and
Catastrophe Report: 2006, which summarizes the world's climate and
natural catastrophes in 2006, details the physical and economic
effects of -- and losses of life caused by -- significant weather
activity around the world. The top catastrophe losses of 2006 are
summarized in the table below. Top 10 Catastrophe Losses for 2006
Event Date Event Type Region Location Damage Estimates 4/13-4/15
Severe Weather United States Great Lakes, Ohio $3.4+ billion
Valley, Southeast 7/9-7/14 Tropical Storm Asia Philippines, $3.3+
billion Bilis Taiwan, China 5/31 Earthquake Asia Indonesia - Java
$3.1+ billion Island 4/7-4/8 Severe Weather United States Great
Plains, $2.6+ billion Midwest, Southeast 6/1-6/30 Flood Asia China
$2.5+ billion 9/10-9/17 Typhoon Asia Southern Japan, $2.0+ billion
Shanshan South Korea 3/11-3/12 Severe Weather United States
Southern Plains, $1.8+ billion Middle MS Valley 8/5-8/10 Super
Typhoon Asia China $1.6+ billion Saomai 8/23-8/24 Severe Weather
United States Northern Great $1.1+ billion Plains, Midwest 12/25
Earthquake Asia Taiwan $1.0+ billion The full report is available
at http://www.aon.com/ and at http://www.impactforecasting.com/ .
Media contact: Rahsaan Johnson 312.381.2684 About Aon Aon
Corporation ( http://www.aon.com/ ) is a leading provider of risk
management services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, human
capital and management consulting, and specialty insurance
underwriting. Aon has 45,000 employees in 500 offices in more than
120 countries. Backed by broad resources, industry knowledge and
technical expertise, Aon professionals help a wide range of clients
develop effective risk management and workforce productivity
solutions. This press release contains certain statements related
to future results, or states our intentions, beliefs and
expectations or predictions for the future which are
forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking
statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that
could cause actual results to differ materially from either
historical or anticipated results depending on a variety of
factors. Potential factors that could impact results include:
general economic conditions in different countries in which we do
business around the world, changes in global equity and fixed
income markets that could affect the return on invested assets,
fluctuations in exchange and interest rates that could influence
revenue and expense, rating agency actions that could affect our
ability to borrow funds, funding of our various pension plans,
changes in the competitive environment, our ability to implement
restructuring initiatives and other initiatives intended to yield
cost savings, our ability to execute the stock repurchase program,
our ability to obtain regulatory or legislative changes to permit
continuous sales of our supplemental Medicare health product,
changes in commercial property and casualty markets and commercial
premium rates that could impact revenues, changes in revenues and
earnings due to the elimination of contingent commissions, other
uncertainties surrounding a new compensation model, the impact of
investigations brought by state attorneys general, state insurance
regulators, federal prosecutors, and federal regulators, the impact
of class actions and individual lawsuits including client class
actions, securities class actions, derivative actions, and ERISA
class actions, the cost of resolution of other contingent
liabilities and loss contingencies, and the difference in ultimate
paid claims in our underwriting companies from actuarial estimates.
Further information concerning the Company and its business,
including factors that potentially could materially affect the
Company's financial results, is contained in the Company's filings
with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041215/CGW049LOGO
http://photoarchive.ap.org/ DATASOURCE: Aon Corporation CONTACT:
Rahsaan Johnson of Aon Corporation, +1-312-381-2684, or Web site:
http://www.aon.com/ http://www.impactforecasting.com/
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