Despite Enviable Assets, Contracts and Strong Balance Sheet,
HEXO Trades at Deep Discount
Riposte Looks Forward to a Dialogue Leading to Constructive
Action
NEW YORK, Sept. 6, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Riposte Capital,
LLC, the second largest public shareholder of HEXO Corp.
("HEXO"), a leading Canadian cannabis Licensed Producer (formerly
called Hydropothecary Corp.), has sent the following letter from
Khaled Beydoun, Riposte Capital's
Managing Partner and Portfolio Manager, and Ryan Price, a Partner and the firm's Director of
Research, to HEXO's Chief Executive Officer and Board of
Directors:
VIA ELECTRONIC AND OVERNIGHT MAIL
September 5, 2018
Dear Sebastien and Members of the HEXO Corp. Board of
Directors,
As the second largest shareholder in HEXO Corp., we are writing
to reiterate to you the concern we have expressed previously about
the severely depressed valuation of HEXO in spite of significant
positive milestones and developments that management and the Board
have accomplished this year. Though we have appreciated and look
forward to continuing our dialogue, its pace of late has lagged the
rapidly changing industry dynamics, and a catalyst has become
necessary.
We – and, we are confident, other like-minded shareholders -
believe your success in establishing enviable assets and contracts
for HEXO has not translated to success in earning an appropriate
equity price and multiple from the investment community for the
company's considerable existing and potential value. Moreover, the
stock suffers from poor research coverage and investor awareness, a
late listing to the TSX, no US listing, and an investor relations
effort that needs significant improvement.
At a time of rapid development in the industry, with
participants racing for scale, capital is a strategic asset. In our
view, promptly addressing and remedying the company's severe and
unwarranted equity discount is essential to its competitive
position. Taking decisive action to dramatically lower the
company's cost of capital, and thereby unleash its growth
potential, should be the Board and management's highest priority,
and should be addressed at the next scheduled Board meeting.
We believe HEXO has the highest revenue visibility in the
sector, due to your SAQ contract – the industry's largest and
longest government contract, worth more than $1bn in sales over 5 years and potentially $100mm
of annual EBITDA contribution by year 3. Furthermore, you are one
of two companies in the sector to have a formal agreement with a
large alcohol company, in the form of your recently announced joint
venture with Molson Coors Brewing Company. The other company with
an alcohol partnership is Canopy Growth Corporation, which now has
a market capitalization of over $23bn. This compares to HEXO's market
capitalization of just $1bn. We
believe HEXO's Molson Coors JV alone could be worth
multiples of the current market capitalization of HEXO today.
We believe a conservatively calculated current intrinsic value
for HEXO is $18 per share, based on a
sector average multiple of 30x 2020 EV/EBITDA (current average
trading multiple of the top 10 Canadian Licensed Producers by
market capitalization) and the Molson Coors JV, to which we ascribe
a modest $500mm vs. the implied $12bn
in market capitalization being ascribed to Canopy from the
Constellation deal (under the same methodology).
Yet HEXO trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of just 8.1x 2020
consensus EBITDA – a mere fraction when compared to Tilray at
93.8x, Canopy 89.2x, Aurora at 27.2x, Cronos at 23.7x and Aphria at
19.5x.
Meanwhile HEXO has:
- The largest government guaranteed contract (in size) with the
longest duration (5 years) in the sector;
- One of the strongest balance sheets (22.4% of market cap in
cash); and
- The industry's lowest cost production thanks to energy prices
in Quebec (about 1/4th the cost
compared to the rest of country), and labor expense (a minimum wage
that is 33% below the Canadian national average).
Without a doubt, HEXO has the potential to be one of the market
leaders in the cannabis sector based on its:
- Strength of management;
- Product suite;
- Research & Development and Innovation Pipeline;
- One of a kind partnership with Molson
Coors; and
- Its leading position in Quebec.
We see it as a testament to your team's operational acumen, as a
producer, that Molson Coors
indicated that they had conducted thorough due diligence on the
sector, met with other much larger competitors, and ultimately
selected HEXO based on shared culture and corporate values, a
science-based approach with continuity of supplies, innovation
pipeline, and track record. That all being said, HEXO still
suffers from a low multiple and share price, which is critically
important, as it significantly hampers the company in the race for
global growth and expansion.
As significant shareholders we encourage management and the
Board to act decisively at the next scheduled Board meeting to
initiate a review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder
value, which include (but are not limited to):
1) Engaging with any interested buyers of the company at a
significant premium to the current share price. In light of the
extreme valuation differentials that are now evident between HEXO
and peers, HEXO would still be accretive on 2020 EBITDA if
multiples of the current share price were offered.
2) Taking the company private, now that the financing markets
are open to the sector and banks are providing leverage, and doing
so in a manner that would permit us to maintain our existing
ownership percentage in the company.
3) A meaningful direct investment from Molson Coors to fund growth and further
strengthen the company's relationship with a major alcohol player.
In lieu of your pending proposal to issue warrants with a
$6 strike, consider a direct
placement for up to 20% of the equity at current levels in order to
underpin the balance sheet and solidify distribution
partnership.
4) A no-premium, accretive merger with a comparably-sized LP
that can add further geographic diversification, scale,
international opportunities, and medical expertise.
Given the company's depressed valuation, the competitive
implications that flow directly from remedying your undervalued
share price and inflated cost of capital, and the ongoing
commitment from the Board and management to maximize shareholder
value, the company's prior public position of completely taking a
potential sale off the table should be reconsidered.
We look forward to your response and prompt action.
Sincerely,
/s/ Khaled and Ryan
Riposte Capital
APPENDIX:
Announced Contract Wins by Canadian LPs
All figures in Canadian dollars, except as otherwise noted
|
Year 1
Contract
|
Year 2
Contract
|
Year 3
Contract
|
Total
|
Company
|
Rev
('000s)1
|
kg
|
Rev
('000s)1
|
kg
|
Rev
('000s)1
|
kg
|
Rev
('000s)1
|
kg
|
Canopy Growth
Corp
|
303,835.5
|
67,519.0
|
113,850.0
|
25,300.0
|
55,350.0
|
12,300.0
|
473,035.5
|
105,119.0
|
Aurora Cannabis
Inc2
|
171,000.0
|
38,000.0
|
58,500.0
|
13,000.0
|
58,500.0
|
13,000.0
|
288,000.0
|
64,000.0
|
Tilray Inc
|
25,348.5
|
5,633.0
|
25,348.5
|
5,633.0
|
25,348.5
|
5,633.0
|
76,045.5
|
16,899.0
|
Aphria Inc
|
104,040.0
|
23,120.0
|
54,000.0
|
12,000.0
|
54,000.0
|
12,000.0
|
212,040.0
|
47,120.0
|
Cronos Group
Inc
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
HEXO Corp
|
90,000.0
|
20,000.0
|
157,500.0
|
35,000.0
|
202,500.0
|
45,000.0
|
450,000.0
|
100,000.0
|
1Assumes
average price per gram of $4.50 CAD
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2Aurora
Year 1 Includes 25k KGs contract with Alberta
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canadian LP Valuation Comps
|
|
|
|
|
|
ND as % of
|
FY2020
|
Company
|
Ticker
|
Px1
|
Market
Cap2
|
ND
|
EV
|
Mkt Cap
|
EV/EBITDA3
|
Canopy Growth
Corp4
|
WEED CN
Equity
|
$
68.83
|
22,944.3
|
(5,037.6)
|
17,906.7
|
22.0%
|
89.2x
|
Aurora Cannabis
Inc5
|
ACB CN
Equity
|
$
8.95
|
8,556.0
|
(215.1)
|
8,340.9
|
2.5%
|
27.2x
|
Tilray Inc
|
TLRY US
Equity
|
$
77.01
|
7,173.0
|
(107.5)
|
7,065.5
|
1.5%
|
93.8x
|
Aphria Inc
|
APH CN
Equity
|
$
18.88
|
4,387.7
|
(307.5)
|
4,080.2
|
7.0%
|
19.5x
|
Cronos Group
Inc
|
CRON CN
Equity
|
$
14.65
|
2,591.6
|
(89.6)
|
2,502.0
|
3.5%
|
23.7x
|
HEXO Corp
|
HEXO CN
Equity
|
$
5.75
|
1,115.5
|
(249.4)
|
866.1
|
22.4%
|
8.1x
|
NOTE: Tilray in US
Dollars
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1Share
price data as of market close on 9/4/2018
|
|
|
|
|
|
2Assumes
basic shares outstanding
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3FY2020
EBITDA estimates based on fiscal year Bloomberg
Consensus
|
|
|
|
|
4WEED
share count includes BC Tweed, LatAm, Hiku, and Constellation
Deal
|
|
|
|
5ACB share
count includes LEAF acquisition, Capcium, Anandia, and CannaRoyalty
technology license
|
|
Contact: Riposte Capital, LLC
Info@ripostecapital.com
646-679-2060
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SOURCE Riposte Capital