TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2024
Regulatory News:
To contribute to the public debate on the energy transition,
TotalEnergies (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) is publishing the
6th edition of its "TotalEnergies Energy Outlook", which presents
three scenarios for the possible evolution of the demand and the
global energy system up to 2050 (documents available at this
link).
TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2024
This year, in addition to the Momentum and Rupture scenarios
presented in previous editions of its Energy Outlook, TotalEnergies
has developed a new scenario, Trends, which reflects the current
trajectory of the various countries up to 2030 and our anticipation
of technological developments and public policies in line with
current trends. This scenario enables us to present the expected
evolution of the energy system up to 2050 in line with current
trends and the efforts still required to achieve the objectives of
the Paris Agreement.
Access to energy essential to meet development needs
Today, around 4.5 billion people have access to a level of
energy that is below what is deemed necessary for satisfactory
human development, particularly in terms of access to healthcare
and education.
Demographic forecasts indicate that the world's population will
increase by 1.7 billion by 2050, in India and the Global South.
Ensuring sufficient access to energy for the world's entire
population today requires tripling the energy available in the
least developed countries. Taking into account their expected
population growth, by 2050 they will need four times more energy
than today. Our collective challenge is therefore to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions while responding to the legitimate demand
for more energy for the population of emerging countries.
An energy transition underway but which ought to be
accelerated
Since 2000, we have experienced a decoupling between GDP growth
and energy demand growth. Electricity has grown faster than the
other energies, and renewables have accelerated their growth since
2015. However, demand for coal, which is often domestic and
inexpensive, continues to grow, and energy intensity gains (1.4%
per year observed over 2000-2022) remain below the ambition set at
COP28 (3% to 4% per year).
Analysis by geographical zone shows that rising living
standards, particularly in India and China, are the main drivers of
the increase in energy demand in recent years.
Two major developments occurred in the last 20 years that will
shape the energy transition: the shale gas and oil revolution in
the United States has transformed the energy landscape in the
United States and around the world; and a few low-carbon
technologies, in particular solar panels and electric vehicles,
have made sufficient progress to be deployed on a large scale and
be cost-competitive for consumers, provided that, at the same time,
electricity networks receive sufficient investment.
3 scenarios for the next thirty years
The Trends scenario reflects the current trajectory of
the various countries up to 2030 and incorporates our anticipation
of future technological and public policy developments in line with
current trends. It accounts for the recent acceleration in the
penetration of mature decarbonization technologies: solar and wind
power to produce electricity, electric vehicles and heat pumps to
use it, particularly in China. However, infrastructure constraints
(in particular electricity grids) and geopolitical tensions are
limiting their large-scale deployment. This scenario yields an
estimated temperature increase between +2.6° and +2.7°C by
2100.
TotalEnergies' Momentum scenario is a forward-looking
approach integrating the decarbonization strategies of NZ50
countries, as well as the NDCs (Nationally Determined
Contributions) of other countries. It implies: (i) electrification
of final demand in NZ50 countries and China, (ii) phasing-out coal
in NZ50 countries, a sharp reduction in China and only slight
growth in this energy source in the Global South countries, (iii)
the use of natural gas as a transitional energy source for
electricity and industry in all countries, and (iv) the deployment
of new energies in non-electrifiable sectors (e.g. decarbonized
hydrogen in industry and transport, sustainable fuels in aviation
and marine) in NZ50 countries and China. In this scenario, fossil
fuels still cover half of the growth in energy demand in the Global
South, due to insufficient low-carbon investment. This scenario
yields an estimated temperature increase between +2.2° and +2.3°C
by 2100.
Rupture is a normative scenario designed to achieve a
temperature increase of less than 2°C by 2100. For example, moving
from Trends to Rupture requires an 80% increase in installed solar
and wind power capacity in India and the Global South by 2030.
Beyond 2040, all decarbonization levers are applied globally, in
particular the deployment of new energies and CCUS. In this
scenario, decarbonized technologies are deployed globally according
to their merit curve. This scenario yields an estimated temperature
increase between +1.7° and +1.8°C by 2100.
To move from Trends to Rupture, the world should collectively
give priority to existing technologies offering an acceptable
abatement cost. In particular, public decision-makers should step
up international cooperation to ensure that the cheapest
technologies are available globally, and that financial instruments
adapted to developing countries are deployed.
"To keep pace with the growth in energy demand which is
essential to the legitimate improvement in the standard of living
of the emerging countries’ population while simultaneously reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, public policies and the players in the
energy chain must give priority to mature and sufficiently
affordable low-carbon technologies and cooperate to deploy them
across the globe. This is the way to combine economic and social
development with the acceleration of the energy transition," said
Aurélien Hamelle, Managing Director Strategy &
Sustainability.
The main messages of the TotalEnergies
Energy Outlook 2024 are as follows:
1. Reliable and affordable energy access is essential to Human
Development, and yet remains widely unequal across countries.
2. Over the last 20 years,
- the energy transition has started globally
- most of the energy demand growth was driven by increasing
living standards
- the US shale revolution has transformed the energy landscape in
the U.S. and worldwide
- A few technologies to decarbonize energy supply are now mature,
and start to be deployed
3. Looking forward to 2050, we have developed 3 scenarios,
differentiated by their depth of decarbonization: Trends, Momentum
et Rupture
- The “Trends” scenario, which takes into account current
trajectories of the various countries up to 2030 and our
anticipation of technological developments and public policies
according to current trends, yields a +2.6-2.7°C temperature
increase by 2100, above the target agreed in Paris.
- The “Momentum” scenario assumes that countries committed
to net carbon neutrality by 2050 reach their objective and yields a
+2.2-2.3°C temperature increase by 2100, still above the target
agreed in Paris.
- The “Rupture” scenario proposes a path to remain well-below
+2°C by 2100 (+1.7-1.8°C). To achieve that objective, existing
decarbonation technologies are deployed rapidly and globally:
advanced economies support the Global South’s energy
transition.
4. Green electrification is the core of the energy transition:
it reduces emissions and losses in the energy system (from 60%
today to ~40% in Rupture).
5. Moving from Trends to Rupture requires pragmatically
deploying decarbonization technologies globally following their
cost and technology merit curve. Priority should be given to
- facilitating global substitution of electricity for fossil
fuels in final demand: EVs, heat pumps – in every country, and
- substituting renewables and flexible gas for coal in
electricity generation – in every country
- accelerating the reduction of methane emissions from fossil
fuel production
6. This in turns would require policy makers focus on
- Allocating subsidies and setting mandates following the cost
and technology merit curve, to minimize cost to their citizens,
hence build societal engagement.
- Eliminating bottlenecks in developing supporting
infrastructure, in particular electricity grids, and accelerating
connection to this infrastructure
- Strengthening international cooperation to deploy the cheapest
available technologies, and develop financial instruments in
developing countries
About TotalEnergies TotalEnergies is a global integrated
energy company that produces and markets energies: oil and
biofuels, natural gas and green gases, renewables and electricity.
Our more than 100,000 employees are committed to provide as many
people as possible with energy that is more reliable, more
affordable and more sustainable. Active in about 120 countries,
TotalEnergies places sustainability at the heart of its strategy,
its projects and its operations.
@TotalEnergies TotalEnergies TotalEnergies
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Cautionary Note The terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies
company” or “Company” in this document are used to designate
TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities that are directly or
indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words
“we”, “us” and “our” may also be used to refer to these entities or
to their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly
or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate legal entities. This
document may contain forward-looking information and statements
that are based on a number of economic data and assumptions made in
a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment. They may
prove to be inaccurate in the future and are subject to a number of
risk factors. Neither TotalEnergies SE nor any of its subsidiaries
assumes any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking
information or statement, objectives or trends contained in this
document whether as a result of new information, future events or
otherwise. Information concerning risk factors, that may affect
TotalEnergies’ financial results or activities is provided in the
most recent Universal Registration Document, the French-language
version of which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French
securities regulator Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), and in
the Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC).
Outlook The TotalEnergies Outlook (TEO) sets out
potential scenarios of energy mix evolution at world and regional
levels until 2050, and the associated likely increase in global
average temperature by the end of the century. It is based on
in-house work conducted by the strategy and climate teams of
TotalEnergies, and on data and input from third-party forecasters,
data providers and consultants. The projections contained in the
Trends outlook and the Momentum and Rupture scenarios rely on a set
of assumptions that may or may not materialize in the future. The
TEO is meant to contribute to the debate and discussions around the
energy transition and, while it is taken into consideration by
TotalEnergies to inform its strategic decisions, the TEO is not a
presentation of TotalEnergies’ strategy, which is presented in
other publications (Sustainability and Climate Report, Investors’
presentations).
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