MUV2 Muenchener Rueckversicherungs Gesellschaft AG

By Pierre Bertrand

Munich Re said Wednesday that initial forecasts suggest the number of Atlantic hurricanes will roughly fall within a long-term historical average, but warned that it isn't clear which of two contrasting climate effects with a hand in either inhibiting or fueling tropical cyclones will have the most influence this hurricane season.

The conflicting signals are making it difficult to provide reliable forecasts about hurricanes, which have the potential to cause billions in damage.

Thursday's start to this year's hurricane season coincides with unusually high water temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic, which could drive cyclones. At the same time, a weather phenomenon known as El Nino is expected to develop by late summer in the Pacific, the German insurer said.

In the Atlantic, El Nino causes strong winds at high altitude, which inhibit hurricanes by tearing them apart, Munich Re said.

"El Nino will have an impact on extreme weather throughout the world, and may possibly inhibit cyclones. But due to the higher sea surface temperatures, everything may be happening at a higher level. This can still produce devastating storms in what is an otherwise inhibiting environment," Munich Re climate expert Anja Raedler said, advising caution.

Munich Re said it expects, based on initial forecasts, that around six of the 12 named tropical storms in the North Atlantic this season could develop into hurricanes. Of these, two could be considered major.

Hurricane Ian was the most devastating of 14 tropical cyclones last year. It caused overall losses of $100 billion, of which roughly $60 billion was insured, Munich Re said.

Hurricane season lasts until the end of November.

Write to Pierre Bertrand at pierre.bertrand@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 31, 2023 07:44 ET (11:44 GMT)

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