By V. Phani Kumar
Asian shares rallied Friday to hand weekly gains to most markets
in the region, with shipping stocks leading for another day and
miners rising on hopes demand for commodities might be picking
up.
China's Shanghai Composite rallied 4%, delivering its best
performance this week, on optimism the country's economy will be
among the first to recover from the global downturn. The benchmark
ended the week with nearly 10% gains as stocks rose across
sectors.
"One can say China is a semi-open market, so it is less affected
[by the global economic downturn] as compared to markets in the
so-called capitalist countries. If there's a revival, they'll
bounce faster. I don't expect a revival in the short-term but maybe
in 2010," said Peter Lai, director at DBS Vickers in Hong Kong.
Japan's Nikkei 225 closed up 1.6%, South Korea's Kospi jumped
2.8%, Taiwan's Taiex climbed 2.5% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index
added 3.6%, with each of them also posting weekly gains.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 advanced 1.2%, while in afternoon
trading India's Sensex gained 2.2% and Singapore's Straits Times
inched up 0.6%. Still, having lost much ground earlier in the week,
they ended or were set to close the week in the red.
"The more resilient tone to markets suggests a lot of bad news
has been priced in already," said analysts at Calyon, noting the
rise in U.S. stocks Thursday despite a downbeat report on weekly
jobless claims. "The tone of improving risk appetite is likely to
continue but the risks remain considerable, with significant
potential for disappointment."
Some analysts warned Asia's gains might fade, especially with
January U.S. non-farm payrolls on the slate later, forecast in a
Dow Jones Newswires poll to show a loss of 525,000 jobs.
Markets were also awaiting progress on U.S. President Barack
Obama's fiscal stimulus plan, while Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner was expected to announce a bank rescue plan on Monday.
Shippers extend rally
Shipping and commodity stocks were helped by another surge in
the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates for dry bulk and
an indicator of global demand. The index rose 13.8% Thursday and
tallied gains of 28.4% in the past two days, though it's still well
down from record levels hit in mid-2008.
But some analysts warned the BDI could overextend itself given a
lack of fundamental evidence that China's demand for commodities
has improved significantly. Some have said the BDI bounce might be
due more to hedge funds covering short positions on forward-freight
agreements.
Delta Asia's head of equities in Hong Kong, Conita Hung, said it
wouldn't be wise to chase shipping stocks.
"My reading is this is more related to speculative interest, as
the economic outlook remains sluggish and it's not logical to see
such an uptrend," she said.
ANZ commodity strategist Mark Pervan added the rise in the BDI
didn't necessarily mean a more positive tone for commodities.
Aluminum and copper stocks in LME-approved warehouses were high and
markets needed an inventory turnaround to confirm an improvement in
demand, he said.
That wasn't stopping the shipping sector, however, with Korea's
STX Pan Ocean (SPNOF) gaining 4.9%, while Nippon Yusen (NPNYY)
added 1.2% and Kawasaki Kisen advanced 1.3% in Tokyo. In Singapore,
Neptune Orient Lines (NPTOY) gained 1.6% by late afternoon, while
STX Pan Ocean surged 7.5%.
There was a carryover effect on commodity stocks, with
Australia's BHP Billiton (BHP) up 1.9% and Newcrest Mining (NCMGY)
up 5.7%.
Other movers
Regional technology stocks were helped by a 2.1% rise in the
Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) overnight, with Tata Consultancy Services
climbing 4.6% and Wipro (WIT) adding 2.3% in Mumbai trading.
Earlier in the day, Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) rose 4.6% in Seoul
and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) jumped 5.4% in
Taipei.
News Corp. (NWS) shares fell 4.1% in Sydney, though, and the
stock dropped 4.9% after-hours in the U.S. The company, which owns
Dow Jones & Co., publisher of the Wall Street Journal, Dow
Jones Newswires and MarketWatch, swung to a fiscal second-quarter
loss on $8.4 billion in write-downs, and it slashed its outlook for
fiscal 2009 operating income.
Among Australian financials, National Australia Bank (NABZY)
slipped 0.8% after it warned bad debts were on the rise.
Hong Kong's market was lifted by gains in China-related stocks,
though PCCW (PCCWY) slipped 2.9% after resuming trade. Trading was
suspended Thursday as officials with Hong Kong's Securities and
Futures Commission said they would launch an inquiry into the
voting results after shareholders approved a $2.1 billion buyout
offer from a group led by its chairman Richard Li.
Shanghai posted across-the-board gains, with auto stocks faring
especially well, after a Shanghai Securities News report that
Beijing might subsidize farmers' vehicle purchases. SAIC Motor
added 4.9%.
Malaysian shares were up 1.6% and Philippine shares 2.7% higher,
while Indonesia's market rose 1.5% by late afternoon. New Zealand
markets were closed for a holiday.
In currency markets the euro retained a mild downward bias amid
concerns about the euro-zone outlook; it was recently around
$1.2794, from $1.2798 late in New York, and at 116.70 yen, from
116.76 yen.
The U.S. dollar was trading near 91.17 yen, versus 91.18 yen in
New York and off an overnight high of 92.25 yen.
February gold futures fell 60 cents to $913 a troy ounce, with
front-month Nymex crude oil down 46 cents to $40.71 a barrel on
Globex.