Given the shift of delayed new vehicle purchases which
stemmed from the dealer management software cyberattack, the pace
of sales in July is expected to realize a notable boost
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., July 24,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Mobility projects
new light vehicle sales volume in July
2024 to reach 1.32 million units, up approximately 1% year
over year. This volume would translate to an estimated sales pace
of 16.4 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR),
which would be the highest monthly mark for this metric since
May 2021.
Mixed signals regarding the outlook for the
second half of the year remain entrenched, according to S&P
Global Mobility
"As a result of delayed transactions from the June auto dealer
cyberattacks, even with one less selling day than June 2024, auto sales volume in July is expected
to essentially match the month-prior result," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P
Global Mobility. "When averaged together, the two-month SAAR level
of June and July would be very similar to the respective readings
of April (15.8M) and May
(15.9M), which were progressing
mildly as rising inventory and incentive levels continue to help
alleviate some new vehicle affordability pinch points. Mixed
signals regarding the outlook for the second half of the year
remain entrenched though, as new vehicle affordability concerns
remain prevalent, and inventories are not expected to advance as
strongly as they have done over the past 12 months."
On the supply side of the equation, with pockets of automakers
reaching inventory saturation points given the current pace of
sales, there are expected to be some interesting dynamics in the
short-term production outlook. "Some automakers are
struggling to balance their sales, production, inventory and
incentive targets as the market returns to more normal dynamics
than what occurred from 2020-2023," said Joe Langley, associate director at S&P
Global Mobility. "Our North American light vehicle production
outlook for the remainder of this year has been scaled back as
automakers attempt to manage these factors."
According to Matt Trommer,
associate director, S&P Global Mobility, "Analysis of June
retail advertised inventory data in the US finds that inventory
continues to rise. Available retail advertised inventory at the end
of June continued to grow, up 1.8% compared to May and 57% over
last June."
US Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
July 24
(Est)
|
Jun
24
|
July
23
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,321,000
|
1,321,932
|
1,299.271
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
16.4
|
15.3
|
15.9
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
13.2
|
12.5
|
12.7
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.2
|
2.8
|
3.2
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. July BEV share is
expected to reach 7.8%, similar to the month prior reading and
continued advancement from the Q1 2024 results. BEV share is
expected to progress over the next several months, assisted by the
the roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and
Honda Prologue, followed by new BEVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S
and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the second half of
2024.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility