Retailers tap AI and agents to increase margins and enhance the holiday shopping experience

Salesforce (NYSE: CRM), the world’s #1 AI CRM, today revealed new data showing holiday retail sales surged to a record $1.2 trillion globally and $282 billion in the United States, but high returns could dampen overall profit margins.

The report indicates that the better-than-expected holiday shopping season was powered by surges in mobile and social commerce alongside increased consumer spending after months of saving in the first half of 2024. However, shoppers have already sent back $122 billion in merchandise. Both consumers and retailers leaned into the use of AI and agents to enhance holiday shopping experiences through product recommendations and personalized order support, influencing $229 billion – or 19% – of all online orders.

“Retailers had a robust holiday season, but a 28% rise in the rate of returns compared to last year is a cause for some concern,” said Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Insights at Salesforce. “Retailers who have embraced AI and agents are already seeing the benefits, but these tools will be even more critical in the new year as retailers aim to minimize revenue losses on returns and reengage with shoppers."

Top Salesforce 2024 holiday shopping insights (Nov. 1 - Dec. 31, 2024)

Salesforce data, based on an analysis of 1.5 billion shoppers and 1.6 trillion page views across the Salesforce Platform, highlights trends that shaped the holiday season, including:

Online sales and order growth reached new peaks:

  • Online sales reached $1.2 trillion globally and $282 billion in the U.S.
  • This represents a 3% global year-over-year (YoY) increase and a 4% YoY increase in the U.S.
  • Online sales also grew 1% YoY in the European Union (EU).

Retailers harness the value of AI and agents:

  • $229 billion of global online sales were influenced by AI and agents in the form of product recommendations, targeted offers, and conversational customer service support.
  • 19% of holiday purchases were influenced by consumers engaging with AI and agents, a 6% increase from 2023.
  • Retail use of generative AI features like agents increased 25% during the holiday season compared to September and October in 2024.
  • Shoppers used AI- and agent-powered chat for customer service 42% more than they did during the 2023 holiday season.

The rate of returns rapidly increases:

  • More than $122 billion of global purchases have already been returned, up 28% from last year.
  • This increase is partially due to trending consumer behaviors like “try-on hauls” and bracketing (buying an extra size above and below your standard size).
  • Salesforce projects that retailers will likely see this number grow to $133 billion – presenting an important opportunity for brands to use agents to make the returns process easier and more tailored to specific customer needs.
    • New Salesforce survey data suggests that 75% of U.S. shoppers are interested — and one-third are very interested — in using an AI agent to complete returns and exchanges.

Social commerce grows its influence on shoppers:

  • Retailers using social commerce strategies saw 20% of global holiday sales generated through platforms like TikTok Shop and Instagram.​​
  • Social media as a traffic-referring channel also grew 8% YoY, driving 14% of all traffic to ecommerce sites during the season.

Mobile conversion picks up the pace:

  • While global mobile traffic share remained the same YoY (79%), the percentage of orders placed grew to nearly 70%, up from 67% in 2023.
  • Mobile orders reached their highest level on Christmas Day, accounting for 79% of all orders, up from 77% in 2023.
  • Survey data from Salesforce also found that 79% of U.S. shoppers say a store associate used a mobile device to help them shop in store in the last year.
  • Overall, $842 billion in global sales and $195 billion in U.S. sales were initiated by mobile devices.

Retailers offer modest discounts:

  • Average discount rates for the entirety of the 2024 holiday season reached 23% in the U.S. (up 1% YoY) and 22% globally (up 2% YoY).
  • The verticals with the highest global discount rates were:
    • Makeup (36%)
    • General apparel (30%)
    • Skincare (28%)
  • The verticals with the highest U.S. discount rates were:
    • General apparel (33%)
    • Health and beauty (29%)
    • Home goods and decor (18%)
  • While discounts might have been lackluster for consumers this holiday season, loyalty programs are proving to be promising for customer retention. Nearly three-quarters (72%) of U.S. shoppers surveyed by Salesforce say loyalty programs make them more likely to continue doing business with brands.

Salesforce powered the 2024 holiday season

Brands and retailers around the world found success with Salesforce this holiday season:

  • Commerce Cloud powered more than 220 million online orders while delivering fast, easy, and personalized digital experiences to shoppers.
  • Marketing Cloud facilitated more than 378 billion marketing messages for businesses this holiday season, a 5% YoY increase.
  • Service Cloud helped customers field and resolve nearly 33.3 billion case interactions throughout the holidays.
  • Data Cloud ingested over 8.5 trillion records (+77% YoY), processed nearly 1.4 quadrillion records (+29% YoY), and helped retailers action over 840 billion profiles across various platforms and channels like Marketing Cloud, Yahoo and Google.
  • Einstein provided more than 368 billion AI-powered product recommendations to shoppers this holiday season to personalize the customer experience, up 30% from last year.

Explore further:

  • Compare this data to Salesforce’s 2024 holiday season forecast
  • Visit the Holiday Shopping HQ for real-time holiday shopping results
  • Check out how Saks elevates luxury shopping with unified data and agents

2024 Salesforce Holiday Insights and Predictions Methodology

Powered by Agentforce, Commerce Cloud, Marketing Cloud, and Service Cloud, Salesforce analyzed aggregated data to produce holiday insights from the activity of more than 1.5 billion global shoppers across more than 89 countries, with a focus on 18 key markets: the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), Switzerland, Latin America (LAM), the Middle East and Africa (MEA), Eastern Europe, Belgium, and the Nordics. This battery of benchmarks provides a deep look into the last nine quarters and the current state of digital commerce. Several factors are applied to extrapolate macroeconomic figures for the broader retail industry. These and other results are not indicative of Salesforce performance.

The prediction data that we present are from proprietary Salesforce research. The calculations we use blend together first-party and third-party data, as well as several market assumptions.

​​About Salesforce

Salesforce helps organizations of any size reimagine their business for the world of AI. With Agentforce, Salesforce's trusted platform, organizations can bring humans together with agents to drive customer success—powered by AI, data, and action. Visit www.salesforce.com for more information.

GIANNA DIMICK gianna.dimick@salesforce.com

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