- PNC calculates the cost of Christmas from the holiday song "The
12 Days of Christmas"
- Increases in the Index are largely driven by labor costs,
mirroring the U.S. economy
- Five of 12 Gifts had no increase in price compared to 2022
PITTSBURGH, Nov. 16,
2023 /PRNewswire/ -- True Loves get a bit of a break
this year as PNC Bank's 40th annual Christmas Price
Index® (PNC CPI) edged up 2.7%, noticeably lower than last year's
hefty 10.5% increase and slightly less than the Consumer Price
Index topline, which is at 3.2% year over year. The PNC CPI is a
light-hearted take on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) CPI,
which measures the change in prices consumers could expect to pay
for True Love's gifts, outlined in the classic holiday carol, "The
Twelve Days of Christmas."
Overall, the 12 gifts that compose the PNC CPI increased to
$46,729.86 this year.
"The most aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hiking cycle
in history and slowing growth in some of the largest global
economies, along with other macroeconomic crosscurrents, have
helped lower the PNC CPI compared to recent years," said
Amanda Agati, chief investment
officer for PNC's Asset Management Group. "Certain industries are
experiencing stickier inflation than others, some of which is well
beyond the Fed's control. The good news is that wage growth is now
higher than the PNC CPI, which should help True Loves deck the
halls this year, considering we are still in a high-inflation
environment."
Agati said that the PNC CPI, introduced in 1984 by the chief
economist of a PNC predecessor bank in Philadelphia, has often mirrored trends in the
U.S. economy, with some exceptions.
"We crunched the numbers and found that since the PNC CPI
launched, the BLS CPI has increased 191%, while the PNC CPI
increased 133%. The methodology differences are obviously going to
give distinct results, but the overall inflation trends have
remained remarkably consistent over the years," she said.
There were no price increases this year for five of the gifts of
the Index, including the Four Calling Birds, Five Gold Rings, Seven
Swans-A-Swimming, Eight Maids-A-Milking and Nine Ladies
Dancing.
Although the Partridge cost was unchanged, there was a 15% jump
for the Pear Tree — a proxy for housing costs that continue to move
higher despite the highest mortgage rates since 2000.
True Loves Will Fork Out More for Most Performers in
2023
While True Loves benefit from little to no increases in goods on
their shopping list, rising wages for skilled labor, represented by
the performers, make a bigger dent in their holiday budget this
year. Although the cost of Nine Ladies Dancing did not increase,
Ten Lords-a-Leaping jumped to new heights, Eleven Pipers Piping
rose to a higher pitch and the 12 Drummers Drumming drummed up a
higher sum. In aggregate, prices for performers increased 3.3% this
year, substantially lower than last year's 14.6% surge.
The cost of all 12 gifts is reported on PNC's interactive
website, which is meant to be as fun as it is educational.
Technology Comes With a Price; Goods and Services Cartwheel
Over 40 Years
- Price of E-Commerce Convenience: Using technology does
not add up to savings this year. Buying all 12 gifts online costs
4.8% more than in 2022 for a price tag of $52,024.03. The convenience of shopping from home
is still impacted by elevated shipping and packaging costs that
have yet to ease since the pandemic.
- Experiences and Services Outpace Goods: During the last
40 years, the PNC CPI has evolved alongside changes in U.S. GDP as
the economy has shifted from a manufacturing focus to one led by
services. In 1984, PNC CPI goods composed 70% of the index, and
today it is 37%. Forty years ago, services composed 30%, and in
2023, they are 63%, an almost complete reversal.
- Core Index Rises: PNC CPI's Core Index, which excludes
the Seven Swans-a-Swimming, crept up 3.7%. Swans typically
represent the most volatile price among items in the Index.
However, their price remains flat again this year. That might be a
positive sign for investors who have been bracing for investment
"black swan" events or fear finding coal in their stockings as
recession concerns linger.
- Turtle Doves Soar to New Heights: These exotic doves are
rare, and due to limited supply, experienced this year's largest
percentage increase at an eye-popping 25%.
"Despite the Federal Reserve's progress in bringing down
inflation, it remains above the Fed's 2% long-term target level
against a backdrop of a tight labor market and resilient
consumers," Agati said. "Investors continue to focus on two
critical variables for the path forward: signs that inflation is
moving back toward the Fed's target and an end to the most
aggressive rate hiking cycle in history. In the absence of
confirmation on both, we think markets are likely to stay
choppy."
The annual PNC CPI tradition also includes calculating the "True
Cost of Christmas," which is buying the gifts with verses repeated.
Purchasing all 364 gifts crossed the $200,000 threshold for the first time, settling
in at $201,972.66, or 2.5% more than
last year.
"Much like the index, consumer behavior is the drumbeat for the
U.S. economy," Agati said. "We will be keeping an eye on guiding
stars like retail sales, wage growth, savings rates and consumer
sentiment as indicators of the success of this holiday season."
PNC Bank, N.A., is a member of The PNC Financial Services Group,
Inc. (NYSE: PNC). PNC is one of the largest diversified financial
services institutions in the United
States, organized around its customers and communities for
strong relationships and local delivery of retail and business
banking including a full range of lending products; specialized
services for corporations and government entities, including
corporate banking, real estate finance and asset-based lending;
wealth management and asset management. For information about PNC,
visit www.pnc.com.
[2023 PNC Christmas Price Index
Follows]
2023 PNC Christmas
Price Index®
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TRADITIONAL
|
INTERNET
|
|
|
|
|
%
Change
|
|
|
%
Change
|
|
|
2022
|
2023
|
2023/2022
|
2022
|
2023
|
2023/2022
|
|
One Partridge in a Pear
Tree
|
$
280.18
|
$
319.18
|
13.9 %
|
$
400.18
|
$
479.18
|
19.7 %
|
|
Partridge
|
$
20.18
|
$
20.18
|
0.0 %
|
$
110.18
|
$
110.18
|
0.0 %
|
|
Pear Tree
|
$
260.00
|
$
299.00
|
15.0 %
|
$
290.00
|
$
369.00
|
27.2 %
|
|
Two Turtle
Doves
|
$
600.00
|
$
750.00
|
25.0 %
|
$
695.00
|
$
845.00
|
21.6 %
|
|
Three French
Hens
|
$
318.75
|
$
330.00
|
3.5 %
|
$
518.75
|
$
540.00
|
4.1 %
|
|
Four Calling
Birds
|
$
599.96
|
$
599.96
|
0.0 %
|
$
500.00
|
$
560.00
|
12.0 %
|
|
Five Gold
Rings
|
$ 1,245.00
|
$
1,245.00
|
0.0 %
|
$ 1,089.75
|
$ 1,469.75
|
34.9 %
|
|
Six
Geese-a-Laying
|
$
720.00
|
$
780.00
|
8.3 %
|
$ 2,841.00
|
$ 3,030.00
|
6.7 %
|
|
Seven
Swans-a-Swimming
|
$
13,124.93
|
$
13,125.00
|
0.0 %
|
$
15,124.93
|
$
15,325.00
|
1.3 %
|
|
Eight
Maids-a-Milking
|
$
58.00
|
$
58.00
|
0.0 %
|
$
456.00
|
$
545.28
|
19.6 %
|
|
Nine Ladies
Dancing
|
$ 8,308.12
|
$
8,308.12
|
0.0 %
|
$ 8,308.12
|
$
8,308.12
|
0.0 %
|
|
10
Lords-a-Leaping
|
$
13,980.00
|
$
14,539.20
|
4.0 %
|
$
13,980.00
|
$
14,539.20
|
4.0 %
|
|
11 Pipers
Piping
|
$ 3,021.40
|
$
3,207.38
|
6.2 %
|
$ 2,750.00
|
$ 3,052.50
|
11.0 %
|
|
12 Drummers
Drumming
|
$ 3,266.93
|
$
3,468.02
|
6.2 %
|
$ 3,000.00
|
$ 3,330.00
|
11.0 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Christmas
Price Index
|
$
45,523.27
|
$
46,729.86
|
2.7 %
|
$
49,663.73
|
$
52,024.03
|
4.8 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True cost of
Christmas in song
|
$
197,071.09
|
$
201,972.66
|
2.5 %
|
$
227,441.72
|
$
239,414.64
|
5.3 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
"Core" index,
excluding swans
|
$
32,398.34
|
$
33,604.86
|
3.7 %
|
$
34,538.80
|
$
36,699.03
|
5.3 %
|
|
CONTACT:
Alan Aldinger
(412) 768-3711
alan.aldinger@pnc.com
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SOURCE PNC Bank